Morning Bells (14 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Never waste you life impressing those who do not value you… instead be with someone who can devalue everyone else just to value you.

For which we were fearing finally today has taken place. Since past 2-3 days we were expecting that market may go for profit booking, initially market remain in tight range and after EU market opening market witnessed sharp decline, and extended its losing streak for 3^rd day.

Also Investors remained cautious and preferred to take some profits as the RBI may choose to delay the much sought rate cuts after rising retail inflation.

Some key factors which lead today’s fall - Global index provider FTSE lowered the weighatage of index heavyweight ITC in its global equity index series from 75% to 24%. Post the announcement, shares of ITC plummeted by over 4% dragging the stock to hit an intra-day low of 292 on the NSE.

RIL, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, are among gainers while TCS, Infosys, Wipro, NTPC,  Sun Pharma, ONGC, NTPC, SBI, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, M&M were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

The Union Cabinet has cleared the Land Acquisition Bill, making mandatory the consent of 80% of people whose land is taken for private projects, according to reports.

The bill was given the go-ahead at the Cabinet presided by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, says report.

Finally much awaited The Cabinet Committee on Investment, (formerly called National Investment Board) has has been cleared by the Cabinet today.

So now need to be cautious at this point as investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end.

Wholesale Price Inflation on -  14 Dec 12

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As told in past 3 MBells and informed that it seems that market have reached to some kind of a resistance point, so its not only profit booking but also seems fatigue, so market can face few more choppy sessions if inflation figure disappoint. Had also warned that now it seems market is turning to down trend in short term very slowly, so, now all depend on Inflation no.s & RBI policy.

So if today inflation remains on higher side (i.e. disappoint then expectation) then market is surely going to test lower levels below 5800 mark and trading range will shift to 5700-5950. And if inflation figure comes as per expectation or surprise then it will remain balanced (don’t expect any huge rally) but yes bank stock will rally. Also remember its Friday. So power of weakness is more than strength.

The only saviour I see for market to hold is – as y’day Govt. has cleared The Cabinet Committee on Investment (formally NIB) and Bill on Urea which give hope that Govt. can announce few more steps to boost economy.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 1.38% and ended at 14.71 against 14.51 and FNO PCR is up at 0.87.

The rupee shown a bit weakness and closed at 54.46 against previous close 54.32.

S&P 500 (US) were trading at 1422 down 6.09 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	27514	813.14	39336	1162.97	415430	12053.08	-349.83
INDEX OPTIONS	503975	14848.79	510315	15054.46	1564037	45818.74	-205.67
STOCK FUTURES	45054	1318.75	64896	1955.36	1151650	32817.54	-636.61
STOCK OPTIONS	53120	1507.22	53731	1521.64	73362	2001.82	-14.42

FII sold 11,882 contracts worth Rs. 349.83 Cr. and OI increased by 8,250 contracts signalling that FII created fresh shorts in Nifty & Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As expected profit booking seen in Index and main indices continuously on 3^rd day. Now investors will keep close eye on Inflation figure on 14^th and then RBI Monetary policy review on 18^th. Investor will also look for more steps to boost the economy.

So for short term view Nifty seems in the range of 5785 – 6000. For FNO watch 5835 as SL and for Equities watch 5785 as SL because for mid-term trend is still buy on dips.

The pattern Nifty is forming is in favour of bulls and can surprise (6000 or 6040) if it hold 5835 till RBI policy, so it it need sentimental support in terms of policy reform, inflation figure, RBI outcome.

Resistance comes to 5892 - 5932 – 5958 - 6009 and Supports comes to 5835 – 5800 - 5785.

Opening seems subdued ahead of inflation figure announcement.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Banks –

Credit ratings agency Moody's lowered the rating outlook of Punjab National Bank , Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank from stable to negative on account of rising bad loans.

Realty, Infra & Power –

Now Infra to boost as much awaited The Cabinet Committee on Investment, (formerly called National Investment Board) has has been cleared by the Cabinet today.

Coal & Minings –

NMDC -

Floor Price of Rs147 per equity share for the Sale in terms of the OFS Circular. If it comes around 150 level then it will remain under performer for mid term.

Coal India Limited -

From the energy security point of view Government has encouraged acquisition of coal assets abroad. Accordingly, Coal India Limited (CIL) has taken initiatives to acquire coal assets abroad through its Coal Videsh Division.

Auto Sector –

Tata Motors -

TM rocked today on Jaguar No.s

The Board of Directors of Tata Motors today announced the appointment of  Cyrus P. Mistry as the Chairman of the Board with effect from December 28, 2012, on the retirement of  Ratan N. Tata. 

As had suggested in the beginning of this week for 289 and TM reached to suggested level of 287-289.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107 (plz book profit above 140)

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 on closing basis. (Not performing as per expectation and now need to exit today)

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

Tata Steel – @402 SL 394 TG 415+ - (SL hit, booked loss of 6Rs)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

============ TODAY’S PICK ============

(Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –

For more update – stay on blog during market hours.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t fall under excitement, read market outlook and Nifty outlook carefully – and act as per suggestion, you can make huge profit in 3 days.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (13 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

There’s no definition of good day or bad day, its all depend on you and your thoughts that either you RULE the day or DAY rules you.

So slowly-slowly trend is changing and circumstances are also supporting. Today IIP no.s came with surprising and most of us would have thought that market should cheer but happened just reverse.  Because due to Nov. as festive month most of expert were expecting it to be at comfortable level and here’s the catch, comfortable no.s & then everybody assuming Inflation will remain high, gave a thought this will wash out hopes of RBI rate cut.

Secondly there’s decision in US for liquidity easing policy (bond buying), it’s a sensitive matter and investors choose to sit on cash.

Well, market continued to consolidate in a tight trading band and witnessed selling pressure despite better than estimated industrial production data.

The IIP for October had a positive growth rate of 8.2%, compared to a negative growth of 5% for the corresponding month last year. Manufacturing sector's growth rate in October, with a weightage of 75.53%.

RIL, Infosys, TCS, Reliance Infrastructure, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC, Coal India were among gainers whiles Wipro, ONGC, NTPC, Tata Power,  SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, BHEL , Mahindra & Mahindra, Dr Reddy’s Lab, HUL, Gail India, BPCL, HDFC Bank were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

So now need to be cautious at this point as investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end.

Wholesale Price Inflation on -  14 Dec 12

MARKET OUTLOOK –

So nothings have changed at the moment as warned in past 2 MB that it seems market have reached some kind of a resistance point and may face choppy sessions for few sessions. Now it seems market is turning to down trend in short term very slowly, so, now the further things will depend on Inflation no.s & RBI policy.

Trading range seems 5800-6000 and the key data point to look out will be the inflation, and chances for that is to remain high, and if it remain high then that will wash out hopes of rate cut, though I have already expressed my view that rate cut is unlikely but yes there could be CRR cut.

So in short – we all need to close our longs on the day of inflation if it remain high to previous month and if it remain below last month then one can hold longs with SL 5785 on Nifty.

Keep a close watch on strong resistance levels of 5,950-5,980, if broken then 6040 would be next strong resistance zone, so any big rally from current levels is unlikely at the moment.

Market sentiment for mid-term uptrend is intact (at least for few more sessions) and participant eagerly waiting for breakout of 6000, but it may not be that much easy.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 14.51 against 14.67 and FNO PCR is up at 0.87.

The rupee remain unchanged and was trading at 54.47 against previous close 54.47 as per NSE data.

S&P 500 (US) were trading at 1437 up 9.87 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	23843	709.62	26447	785.62	407180	11913.77	-75.99
INDEX OPTIONS	505848	14984.44	511444	15094.76	1540495	45408.63	-110.32
STOCK FUTURES	39164	1157.62	51586	1506.02	1137182	32927.54	-348.40
STOCK OPTIONS	36846	1061.70	37000	1065.56	73319	2018.70	-3.86

FII sold 2604 contracts worth Rs. 75.99 Cr. and OI decreased by 15,696 contracts signalling that FII booked profit in shorts and went long in Nifty & Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As expected profit booking seen in Index and main indices. Now investors will keep close eye on Inflation figure on 14^th and then RBI Monetary policy review on 18^th. Parliament session is also there which is ending next week so investor will also eye on some more pending reform bills.

Historical data shows that Dec seems a month for 3%-4% gain, but situation are different a bit from past, so lets see who wins BEARS or BULLS.

Nifty will face resistance at 5925 & 5954 while 5785 is the SL for longs for short term trend.

So for short term view Nifty seems in the range of 5785 – 6000.

Resistance comes to 5925 - 5954 – 6009 – 6053 and Supports comes to 5874 - 5835 – 5810 - 5785.

Opening seems positive. People who have already initiated longs need not to worry at the moment and can keep SL 5835.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Banks –

BJP agreed to discuss the Banking Laws (Amendment) bill. Banks are allowed to trade in shares, bonds and currencies but Section 8 of the Banking Regulation Act prohibits banks to trade in commodities. RBI is not comfortable with this new provision by the government in the absence of a clear risk mitigation mechanism and regulatory responsibility. In the original bill banks were not allowed to invest in futures.

Realty, Infra & Power –

Will face some selling pressure in near term, better to book profit at comfortable level.

IT –

Infy -

Infosys today listed its shares at the New York Stock Exchange . The company moved its shares from Nasdaq to NYSE and submitted form for listing In London & Paris.

TCS-

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) said it has signed a multi-year agreement with UK-based hospitality player Mitchells & Butlers (M&B). No financial details were disclosed.

Coal & Minings –

NMDC -

Floor Price of Rs147 per equity share for the Sale in terms of the OFS Circular.

Coal India Limited -

From the energy security point of view Government has encouraged acquisition of coal assets abroad. Accordingly, Coal India Limited (CIL) has taken initiatives to acquire coal assets abroad through its Coal Videsh Division.

KFA –

Looks attractive post Eithad talks and seems Eithad looks serious player and taking things serious to enter Indian market. If it comes to brand recall then KFA has good brand recall value among its competitors.

Auto Sector –

Tata Motors -

Tata Motors  owned Jaguar Land Rover has signed a letter of intent with National Industrial Clusters Development Programme (NICDP) in Saudi Arabia to explore opportunities for a new plant in the Middle Eastern country.

TM will among those stocks that can get benefit of it. It may move to 287-289 level in coming days and then to 302. Keep SL 262.5 and then 254.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107 (plz book profit above 140)

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 on closing basis. (Not performing as per expectation and now need to exit above 131)

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

Tata Steel – @402 SL 394 TG 415+ (suggested to hold during the day)

Dhana Bank – @71 SL 68 TG 78+ (exit today)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

============ TODAY’S PICK ============

(Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –

For more update – stay on blog during market hours.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Though Nifty is in uptrend but need to be cautious as Nifty need some rest here and after such good move throughout the year investors can go for some profit booking.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.