Morning Bells (22 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

PERSONALITY is : Who we are and what we do when everybody is watching. CHARACTER is : who we are and what we do when Nobody is watching.

Nothing to say at the moment, after FED news global market turned into deep red. Benchmark indices logged their biggest single-day loss in seven months Thursday, as the slide in European shares unnerved investors in India as well.

Brokers said unwinding of derivatives trades could have been one of the major reasons for the collapse. It is not clear if foreign institutional investors were sellers in a big way, but many players feel that could well have been the case.

Unlike in the previous weeks when investors were mostly dumping midcap and small cap shares, Thursday’s crash was broad-based.

Market expectations are low ahead of the Union Budget next Thursday, as the widely-held view is that Finance Minister Chidambaram is likely to focus on fiscal consolidation through expenditure cuts. While this would help avert a sovereign rating downgrade, it would also delay economic recovery, say analysts.

FII flows are the biggest risk to the market. They have crossed 2 percent of market cap on a 12-month trailing basis, which has historically been a warning sign for prospective equity returns,” said a Morgan Stanley note to clients this morning, adding, “The trigger for a reversal of flows comes from a global risk off which is hard to time.

So far in 2013 alone, FIIs have net bought around Rs 43,000 crore worth of shares, coming on the heels of Rs 1.3 lakh crore of net purchases in 2012.

Gainers – Sun Pharma, Cipla, Bajaj Auto were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Infosys, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, ONGC, Dr Reddys Lab, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, BHEL were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - Oil and Gas , HC, PSU, Power,Realty, Metal, IT, Teck, Bankex, Capital Goods were the major losers.

BUDGET –

“The Indian Railways ensures transportation services to citizens and businesses and enhances infrastructural backbone of the country. The railway budget is crucial to the running of this institution.  Overall, we would expect increased focus on modernization of the railways and increased spending on safety and infrastructure from the rail budget.

This would be achieved through allocation of funds for modernization and maintenance of infrastructure such as power equipment, signaling equipment, fencing lines, firefighting equipment etc.

On Domestic Front –

The Budget session of the Parliament began today. Minutes before the Budget Session of Parliament commenced, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sought productive and constructive sittings of the two houses.

"We're looking forward to a productive, constructive session of Parliament. That's what our country's people expect," the prime minister told reporters outside parliament. He also urged the opposition to participate in "responsible dialogue and debate".

On Global front –

Global market is on correction.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

There could be chances for a small bounce on account of encashment of shorts and just a little hope with budget. So probably Nifty should hold 5820/5780 till main budget day. And after the Budget it may be a different story if the global markets continue to correct and we have seen the fund flows beginning to reduce significantly. One could think of a bigger correction after the Budget.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 8.59% and ended at 16.94 against previous close of 15.60.

FNO PCR is 0.95 against previous close 0.94.

Indian Rupee – lost 40 paisa and was trading at 54.47 against its previous close of 54.07/08.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 14.99 down 12.08 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 5977 – 5949 – 5900 and Support – 5824 – 5795 - 5747

Opening – Short term trend was already down, and now FED’s report has confirmed it. Opening again seems down and under pressure. There could be chances for a small bounce on account of encashment of shorts and just a little hope with budget. So probably Nifty should hold 5820/5780 till main budget day. And after the Budget it may be a different story if the global markets continue to correct and we have seen the fund flows beginning to reduce significantly. One could think of a bigger correction after the Budget.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Jain Irrigation 65CE – @2 TG 3.5+ SL 2 Lot-1(Active from 19 Feb 13)

(Updated SL hit, No Profit No Loss)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +6500 + 3800 (Rcom) = +10,300

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +13,500 + 3800 (Rcom) + 3100 (NTPC Future) = +20,400

Today’s MG Mantra –

Excitement can be harmful, its time to be cautious.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (21 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

PERSONALITY is : Who we are and what we do when everybody is watching. CHARACTER is : who we are and what we do when Nobody is watching.

As expected market again turned choppy and pared its gain, open with a smart gap but finally it gave up all the gains and closed just 3 points up.

After rallying for the past two sessions, the Indian equity market took a breather on Wednesday as traders and investors preferred to take some profits home.

The market opened with a positive gap but was unable to build on to its gains as benchmark indices saw selling in the Consumer Durables, Metals, Capital Goods and the FMCG stocks. Even the Mid-Cap index ended with losses. Bucking the trend was the BSE Oil & Gas, Realty and IT index, even the Small-Cap index declined by 0.2%.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Tata Power, Coal India, Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddys Lab and HDFC Bank were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, SBI, BHEL, ONGC, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Jindal Steel, NTPC and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - The BSE Realty index was the top gainer, up 2%, followed by BSE IT index up 1.7%, BSE Healthcare index added 1.4% and BSE Power index gained 1.1%.

BUDGET –

According to various experts - Indian equities have taken a breather since mid January 2013 as market participants ponder over the outcome of the Union Budget. We take it as a foregone conclusion that the Finance Minister will deliver a reform-centric Budget addressing the fiscal and current account deficits in the wake of the sustained country downgrade scare. In our opinion, the FM cannot even afford a Budget which is termed as a non-event, leave alone a bad one.

Attempts to revive the industry cycle, infrastructure and deepening the corporate bond market are other market-friendly measures likely to be taken up. The Finance Minister would obviously want to serve customary populist carrots to appease the critical vote bank ahead of the forthcoming elections but, his Budget, by and large, is likely to be balanced, certainly devoid of any ambiguous provisions to help maintain investor confidence as also to attract foreign capital. We believe the Budget will deliver a good vibe and provide fresh legs to the market to scale new highs.

BUDGET IMPACT ON VARIOUS SECTORS, A PREVIEW -

Automobile - No significant action expected, given the significant deterioration in demand conditions for the sector, coupled with the government's fiscal deficit constraints and recent increases in fuel prices. Probability – Medium, Impact - Neutral.

Banks/Financial Institutes - Details of capital infusion for banks. Positive for banks which are due to receive capital. Possible boost to savings instruments such as insurance/mutual funds, to diversify funds away from gold. Probability – High, Impact – Positive

Capital Goods - One of the measures to support power equipment industry likely: (1) exemption of import duty on CRGO (key raw material used in transformers), (2) anti-dumping duty on imported equipment or (3) exemption of power equipment from excise duty, assuming them as deemed exports. Probability – High, Impact – Positive.

Infra - Exemption of infrastructure companies from the payment of Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT) which the industry has been lobbying for. Probability – Medium, Impact – Positive.

FMCG - 10%-12% increase in excise duty on cigarettes. While a hike of 8%-10% could be recovered by companies, a greater increase may negatively impact volumes. Probability – High, Impact – Negative.

MG’s view on Budget -

Most of experts are hoping for their gains i.e. market friendly budget but my sense is that this budget would be more for common man & basically will be focussed on pending reforms, yes as general election is there in 2014 and this would be last budget where Govt. can announce reliefs for common people.

Surprisingly Mid-Caps have fallen 10-40% in last two weeks. (Blue chips are drifting lower but second line shares went down much sharper.) Street has been expecting a lot from the Budget both in terms of policies and reforms and probably India the Budget is overhyped. So as per personal view – it would be a neutral event and market may go down after budget, unless & until there’s no any magical surprise.

On Domestic Front –

No big event yet.

On Global front –

No big event yet.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Market broke out from the trading range on account of lack of selling which triggered short covering in the indices. The current up move is likely to intensify further after Nifty takes out the intermediate high of 5969.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1.2% and ended at 15.60 against previous close of 15.81.

FNO PCR is 0.94 against previous close 0.82.

Indian Rupee – gained its most in two weeks on Wednesday and was trading at 54.07/08 against its previous close of 54.19.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1530.94 up 11.15 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 5996 – 5983 – 5963 and Support – 5930 – 5917 - 5896

Opening – As told y’day, it could be range bound session, today again seems range bound session at least morning session. Bears will fight tough, interesting to see whether they defend Nifty 5970 or not. So start could be flat and then in opening session market may see selling pressure.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Reliance -

Reliance Industries gained by 3.2% after British Petroleum Plc, Europe's, and Reliance Industries agreed to invest $5 billion in developing untapped gas reserves in the KG-D6 block to boost gas production. Reliance Industries is currently trading at Rs.860 up by 11.45 over the previous close in the early morning session trade on BSE.

Lanco Infratech -

Lanco Infratech gained by 1.2% after reports came out that the engineering procurement and construction company yesterday reached out to its Malaysian partner, Genting, to sell stakes in three of the coal fired power plants generating a total of 3240MW, said the reports. The company is planning to sell stakes in its three coal-fired power plants to Genting Bhd which are operating a total 3,240 MW, according to reports. Genting has a 35% stake in Lanco's gas-fired Kondapalli power plant, says report.

JP Power –

Shares of Jaiprakash Power slumped by 6%. The company announced the opening of qualified institutional placement to raise up to Rs 35bn. The issue opened for bidding on Tuesday. The floor price for the QIP is set at Rs 31.93 per share. If one assumes that the QIP is priced at the floor price of Rs 31.93 per share, the fresh issue of shares will result in equity dilution of a staggering 41.76%. 

DB Realty -

Vipul Bansal, group CEO, DB Realty , talking to CNBC-TV18, says the company, which has an inventory above Rs 30,000 crore, plans to launch three key projects in the next 3-4 months.  He attributes the jump in sales this quarter as compared to the previous one to the company getting complete clarity from the government on the new Development Control (DC) regulations, allowing it to market and sell products aggressively. The company has about Rs 300 crore of liquid transfer development rights (TDR) in its books, at about Rs 2500-2600 per square foot. Even in the prevailing scenario of high interest rates, he feels that with the current exposure of Rs 300 crore, debt is not a matter of concern for the company.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Jain Irrigation 65CE – @2 TG 3.5+ SL 2 Lot-1(Active from 19 Feb 13)

RCom 75CE – @1.45 TG 2.5+ SL 1.45 Lot-1 (Active from 19 Feb 13)

(Booked profit @2.4, Total gain +3800)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +6500 + 3800 (Rcom) = +10,300

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +13,500 + 3800 (Rcom) + 3100 (NTPC Future) = +20,400

Today’s MG Mantra –

Excitement can be harmful, its time to be cautious.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (20 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

When it comes to choose Friends & Books, then be careful, because Friends influence our Character and Books influence our Thoughts.

Oh! What a fantastic day for all and specially for our blog readers who booked handsome profit y’day.

Well, market ended in the green for the second straight trading session on Tuesday. The benchmark indices ended near their day’s high as the NSE Nifty rebounded almost 65 points. The market was stuck in a narrow trading range in the first half; however, a sudden bout of buying in the last hour of trade in scrips across the sector prompted the upmove.  Finallly NSE Nifty closed at 5,939, up 41 points over the previous close. It earlier touched a day’s high of 5,947 and a day’s low of 5883. It opened at 5,900.

Finance minister P Chidambaram has cut its market borrowing by Rs. 120 billion. The move is aim to satisfy the credit ratings agencies that have warned India with a sovereign downgrade if measures are not taken to reduce the fiscal and current account deficits.
“On review of the government of India’s cash position and funding requirement, it has been decided, in consultation with RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to reduce the government market borrowing through dated securities by Rs. 12,000 crore for the current financial year,” the finance ministry said in a statement on Monday. The auction scheduled on Friday was the last one for the current financial year.

Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive and Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) met with the Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Dr Veerappa Moily in Delhi today. They updated the Minister of their joint future plans in India, including the KG D6 block enhancement plan designed to increase production from the block.

BSE and S&P Dow Jones Indices announced a strategic partnership to calculate, disseminate, and license the widely followed suite of BSE indices. The partnership brings together BSE’s closely watched India index suite, which includes the SENSEX, with S&P Dow Jones Indices’ 115 years of experience in publishing uncompromised global benchmarks.

The BSE, the oldest exchange in Asia established in 1875, 137 years ago, currently maintains 30 stock market indices measuring the Indian market. The SENSEX is the flagship index of BSE   launched in 1986 on a market-cap weighted basis to measure the performance of 30 component stocks representing large, well-established, and financially sound companies across key sectors in India. The Index is one of the most prominent brands among Indian investors.

Gainers – Wipro, Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank, BHEL, Tata Steel, ONGC, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Bajaj Auto, Sesa Goa, Hindalco Inds, Sun Pharma, NTPC and Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, Jindal Steel, Gail India and HDFC Bank were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - The BSE Realty index was the top gainer, up 2%, followed by BSE IT index up 1.7%, BSE Healthcare index added 1.4% and BSE Power index gained 1.1%.

BUDGET –

According to various experts market is optimistic about the Budget as of now given the promises made by the government in the last few months, it will be watching the event closely to see if the finance minister will deliver on these commitments.

Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia is expecting a good budget from the Finance Minster.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Abid Hussain Memorial Lecture, Ahluwalia said, “"It's not a good idea to speculate on the budget. I am sure we will get a good budget."               

A huge agenda has been listed for the session including the introduction of 16 new legislations in addition to the 40 legislations that will be put up for consideration as well as passing. These legislations include the big-ticket Insurance Bill, the Pension Bill, the Companies Bill and of course UPA's showpiece, the Food Security Bill, along with the Land Acquisition Bill.

As far as the financial agenda of this session is concerned, the session has the Union Budget on the February 28 in addition to the Railway Budget as well as the economic survey.

MG’s view on Budget -

Most of experts are hoping for their gains i.e. market friendly budget but my sense is that this budget would be more for common man & basically will be focussed on pending reforms, yes as general election is there in 2014 and this would be last budget where Govt. can announce reliefs for common people.

Surprisingly Mid-Caps have fallen 10-40% in last two weeks. (Blue chips are drifting lower but second line shares went down much sharper.) Street has been expecting a lot from the Budget both in terms of policies and reforms and probably India the Budget is overhyped.

On Domestic Front –

The Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram launched the operations of India Infradebt Limited (Infradebt), the first Infrastructure Debt Fund (IDF) under the NBFC structure by handing over the first IDF – NBFC license to Infradebt in presence of the promoters, ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, Citibank and LIC.

On Global front –

Many experts believe that its not right time to judge equity market at the moment. They have some thoughts that while many global economies may have averted a default here and a decline there, the crisis is far from over. Don’t judge prematurely!

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Market broke out from the trading range on account of lack of selling which triggered short covering in the indices. The current up move is likely to intensify further after Nifty takes out the intermediate high of 5969.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 3% and ended at 15.81 against previous close of 16.29.

FNO PCR is 0.82 against previous close 0.80.

Indian Rupee –against USD ended almost unchanged and was trading at 54.19 against its previous close of 54.19.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1527.67 up 7.88 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 6028 – 5987 – 5963 and Support – 5899 – 5859 - 5835

Opening – After a good day, now again Nifty can show range bound as bears will try to give an attempt and to restrict Nifty to cross 5970. So start could be a bit positive say around 10+ points.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Jet Airways -

Jet Airways surged 3.2% after the company announced one of India’s biggest air ticket sale of almost 20lakh seats at fares as low as Rs. 2250 for travel anytime until December 31, 2013. The discounted tickets could be booked until February 24.

The share price has surged after hitting turbulence yesterday, shedding 8% after Etihad Chairman said that the company needs time to evaluate the Jet-Etihad deal in which the Abu-Dhabi based Etihad is mulling to buy a 24% stake in the Indian carrier.

Hotel Leela -

Hotel Leela was up 8.76% after the company sold off its Chennai IT park building for Rs. 1.7bn on Monday to Reliance Industries, the company declared in a BSE filing. The company’s board gave the approval on November 2, 2012 for the sale of the property.

KFA –

Kingfisher Airlines was stuck at 5% upper circuit after the parent United Breweries (Holdings) hiked its loan limit for the airline to Rs 7.5bn from Rs 3bn. The statement came after the lenders to Kingfisher on Feb. 12 said that they would begin initial proceedings towards recovering $1.4bn of defaulted loans after Kingfisher failed to come up with a suitable repayment plan. The parent UB Group, of both Kingfisher Airlines and United Breweries, has declared that it could use proceeds from a stake sale in a separate group company to Diageo. United Breweries (Holdings) was up by 5% after the announcement.

McDowell -

The USL - Diageo deal may be in jeopardy after banks have recalled loans given to Kingfisher Airlines. Bankers told CNBC-TV18 that they could invoke the corporate guarantee of UB Holdings and file for liquidation of the company. This could endanger the transfer of USL shares owned by UB Holdings to Diageo, reports CNBC-TV18.

The recall of loans given to Kingfisher Airlines by consortium of banks can actually put the entire USL -Diageo deal in jeopardy. Lenders state that they can also invoke corporate guarantees given by UB Holdings as collateral for Kingfisher Airlines.

Essar Ports -

Essar Ports climbed 7% after the lenders the company released the pledged 42,083,396 shares which have been re-pledged with the trustees, the released shares make up 9.8% of the entire paid up equity capital of the company, the company declared in a filing to BSE.

MCX-SX -

MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) will introduce Liquidity Enhancement Scheme (LES) in Equity and Equity Derivatives Segments with effect from March 6, 2013. The objective of the Scheme is to invite genuine participation and benefit all participants across various segments of the market from smallest of retail investors to largest of institutions for wholesome development of India’s Capital Market. It provides a level playing field to all classes of users to have wider reach and impact.

In order to develop the markets at the fundamental level, the Liquidity Enhancement Scheme has been structured to reach out to real investors and users so that the investors and members have the benefit of sustained and genuine liquidity. MCX-SX is the first national exchange in India to be offering incentives for liquidity enhancement in the Equity Cash Market.

Tata Motors –

Tata Motors -owned Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has now started work on developing what would be the smallest sports utility vehicle (SUV) from the company till date. The proposed model is being developed in the UK.

Sources say the proposed SUV will focus on emerging markets like China and India, reports CNBC-TV18's Ronojoy Banerjee, quoting sources.

Sources indicate that the proposed SUV is going to have an engine capacity of around 2-litre and in comparison to the 2.2-litre diesel engine of the Evoque, one of the smaller SUVs from Range Rover, it will be the smallest vehicle to rollout from the company till date.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Jain Irrigation 65CE – @2 TG 3.5+ SL 2 Lot-1(Active from 19 Feb 13)

RCom 75CE – @1.45 TG 2.5+ SL 1.45 Lot-1 (Active from 19 Feb 13)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +6500

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +13,500 (ZEEL)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Today I have one article for all of you, though I have told you all these repeatedly but its nice chance to recall all those instructions once again, so here’s the link –

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/planning/4-financial-blunders-you-should-never-make_827709.html#toptag

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.