Morning Bells (04 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Your mind is your greatest friend, if you control it. But your mind is your greatest enemy if it controls you. Good Morning.

So finally Nifty closed above physiological level of 6000, first time in 2 years. Thought market seems in consolidation phase after a decent welcome rally in New Year. It was the third straight day of gains as the technology and Oil and Gas stocks kept the indices in the green. Throughout the day, profit booking was visible in banking stocks and momentum shifted to mid cap and small cap counters. Markets could continue its sectoral shift to high-beta sectors in the near term. Now immediate resistance seen for Nifty at 6090/6100.

RIL, Infosys, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, SBI, Bajaj Auto, NTPC, Tata Steel, Dr Reddys Lab, ONGC, Dr Reddys Lab, Bajaj Auto, Coal India,  are among gainers while Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, BHEL, Gail India, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, ITC, M&M are among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral wise Oil and Gas , HC, PSU, FMCG, Power,Realty, Metal, IT, Teck, Oil and Gas, Metal, are the gainers while Auto, Power, Bankex, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables indices are the losers.

The Finance Minister was making his introductory remarks during his first pre-budget meeting with stakeholders from agriculture sector. The Union Finance Minister P .Chidambaram said that Agriculture and Allied Sectors are critical sectors for inclusive growth. He said that foodgrain production during last year 2011-12 was 257.4 million tons and during the current financial year 2012-13 equally good foodgrain production is expected.

Interestingly still there are many nervous investors, sitting on the sidelines all this while, have started to dip their toes into the equity pound, hoping not to dive into a January trap.

Forex - A good way to judge market momentum is to look at the currency market. The dollar index currently is at the crucial 80-mark. The Asian sales desks have already started advising caution, citing the dollar index rise as an indication and some experts expecting a 10% correction.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Next trigger for market will be RBI monetary policy outcome.

Sakthi Siva of Credit Suisse expects that first half of the year will be good and the second half will be tough. I have a bit different view that first quarter of 2013 and there onward time will be tough as many big local & global event including parliament election possibilities are there.

I also feel one should be cautious in the previous week of RBI announcement.

Well, there are early signs of overheating in the Indian equity markets. Indian ADRs, particularly banks who are trading at a premium, are looking over bought. A lot of FIIs have already tired to participate in the Indian market, also, a lot of underperformers are moving now, which is usually considered as the last leg or last phase of a market rally. 

So here onward I am expecting a range bound & cautious move till important data & RBI policy and market will react on corporate No.s, Govt. data announcement and finally on RBI policy announcement.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1.75% and ended at 13.47 against 13.71 and FNO PCR is 0.91.

Indian rupee dropped and ended at 54.49/50 than its previous close of 54.35/36.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1464.85 up 2.43 at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Due to decent rally and then fear of outflow in January putting investors cautious and people are looking for profit booking in sectors which run decent in current rally and feeling it could be a trap.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Resistance comes to 6020 – 6034 – 6052 - 6090 and supports at 5992 – 5974 – 5961.

Opening seems flat and under pressure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Jet Airways –

News appearing in a leading financial daily titled "Etihad may buy 24% stake in Jet for up to Rs. 18bn. in 10 days" Jet Airways (India) Ltd has clarified that while Jet (“the Company”) and Etihad are in a discussion regarding a potential investment by the latter in the former, these discussions have commenced recently pursuant to the liberalized FDI Policy which permitted foreign investment in the shares of an Indian airline. An appropriate announcement shall be made upon finalization of the terms of the investment with Ethiad as per legal and regulatory requirements.

Reliance Power –

Reliance Power commissions 600MW Butibori thermal power plant, the first 300MW unit achieved full load in earlier this year in August.

Reliance Power has synchronised the second of the two 300MW units of its Butibori Thermal Power Project near Nagpur in Maharashtra. The Unit has been synchronized on 2nd Jan '13 in the early hours and simultaneously coa firing of the unit has been achieved.

IT Sector –

Worldwide IT spending is projected to reach USD 3.73 trillion in 2013, a 4.2 per cent increase from USD 3.58 trillion in 2012, research firm Gartner said y’day.

Auto Sector – to shine in first quarter of 2013

Metal Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Realty Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Pvt. Banks - to shine in first quarter of 2013

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week) – TG Achieved stock made high 242 y’day. (Profit 250x21=5250)

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107 (CMP 116)

Rel Capital – @498 TG 520+ SL 490

Rel Infra – @546 TG 565+ SL 537

ICICI Jan 1200CE – @27 TG 40+ SL 21 (2 lot)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 108 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 113 (Gain +5%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 48.45 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stock can give you reasonable return in very short term –

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

MG Blog = +5250

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week) – TG Achieved stock made high 242 y’day. (Profit 250x21=5250)

Billionaire Club = +17,000

Today’s MG Mantra –

Cautious approach today as profit booking is there and also its Friday.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (3 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life which you are living now is also a dream of millions… Love it, Live it, Value it and be happy what you are.

Ah!, Nifty gain 90+ points in New Year and hit 2 year high, Nifty crossing the psychological 6000 mark intra-day; the last time it touched these levels was in Jan 2011, what a start.

The "fiscal cliff" crisis was averted after the House of Representatives approved a Senate bill that raised tax for the rich and delayed spending cuts. The House voted by 257 votes to 167 to pass the original bill with minority Democrats joining a smaller number of majority Republicans to pass the legislation.

Since Nifty breached 6000 mark first in a two year, it would tempt to a lot of retail investors to enter the market.

Companies which propose share buybacks merely to stabilize their sagging share price rather than for the stated purpose of improving shareholder value, may no longer find it easy to fool shareholders and the regulator. The Securities and Exchange Board of India has proposed stringent rules for share buyback so that company managements are held to their word. Sebi has issued a discussion paper on its proposals and sought public feedback by January 31.

RIL, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp,  Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, BHEL, HDFC, ONGC, Dr Reddys Lab, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, are among gainers while Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Coal India, HUL, M&M were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sector wise - Oil and Gas, HC, PSU, Power, Realty, Metal, Teck, Oil and Gas, Consumer Durables, Bankex, Capital Goods, Metal, were the gainers while Realty, IT, FMCG indices are the losers.

So start was as per expectations now next trigger for market will be RBI monetary policy outcome.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Levels to be watched closely 5835 & 5885, both has good support while resistance seems 6040.

The INDIA VIX on NSE remained flat, down 0.02% and ended at 13.71 against 13.69 and FNO PCR is 0.91.

The Indian currency gained after the US Senate voted in favour of averting the fiscal cliff. Hopes are the inflows will continue following the development.

The rupee gain and ended at 54.35/36 than its previous close of 54.68/69.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1453.19 up 27.00 at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040 for current week.

Resistance comes to 6005 – 6012 – 6029 and supports at 5981 – 5969 – 5957.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Reliance Power –

Reliance Power commissions 600MW Butibori thermal power plant, the first 300MW unit achieved full load in earlier this year in August.

Reliance Power has synchronised the second of the two 300MW units of its Butibori Thermal Power Project near Nagpur in Maharashtra. The Unit has been synchronized on 2nd Jan '13 in the early hours and simultaneously coa firing of the unit has been achieved.

IT Sector –

One should expect the worst from the IT companies, not just Infosys , for this quarter. It has been a challenging quarter for them. I do not think they will benefit as much from the rupee as well. So, by and large, the result should be flat, maybe slightly declining as well.

Auto Sector – to shine in first quarter of 2013

Metal Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Realty Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Pvt. Banks - to shine in first quarter of 2013

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107 (CMP 116)

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week) (CMP 231)

Rel Capital – @498 TG 520+ SL 490

Rel Infra – @546 TG 565+ SL 537

ICICI Jan 1200CE – @27 TG 40+ SL 21 (2 lot)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 107 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 105 (Gain -3%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 49 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stock can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Today’s MG Mantra –

Profit booking not ruled out. US & EU market will give strength.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (2 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life which you are living now is also a dream of millions… Love it, Live it, Value it and be happy what you are.

As told you repeatedly I see market is still in uptrend and people can join the party if they have missed the bus in 2012 as I see good gain till budget say around or more than 12-15% gain unless and until no bad news come out in the way of new highs.

So start was as per expectations and the new year has begun with good cheer as the Indian indices got off to a pleasant start and kept their gains till close. The trigger this time was lawmakers in US finally steering clear of the fiscal cliff at the eleventh hour. The US Senate cleared the agreement that raises taxes on family income of over $450,000, increases taxes on capital gains and dividends for those households to 20%, and delays for two months $110 billion in spending cuts.

But its still not a sign of relief, as the US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has communicated to US Congress that the country has reached its borrowing limit of $16.4tn because of which the government has been left with no option but to employ "extraordinary measures" to avoid default

The rally in Indian market was driven by rate sensitive sector like Banks, Real estate and Metals on hope of RBI cutting rates during the January meet. The Nifty has finally broken out from the tight trading range, which prevailed during entire December. With closing above, the resistance level markets given sign for a good year ahead.

The gainers were Jindal Steel (3.3%), Hindalco Inds. (2.7%),  Tata Steel (2.3%),  ICICI Bank (1.9%), BHEL (1.9%),  Sterlite Inds. (1.9%) and  Maruti Suzuki (1.8 %). The losers in the Sensex were NTPC, Infosys and Hero Motocorp. Reliance Infra shot up almost 4.6% while Jindal Steel was up 3.5% and were the top performers on Nifty and Sensex.

As also told - Pvt. Banks, Auto sector, Metal sector seems major contributor for this move, y’day banks & Metals were major contributor for a cheerful start.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram will start pre-Budget consultations with various stakeholders from January 2. The first meeting is with agriculturalists on January 2. It will be followed by a series of interactions with sectoral experts, industry captains and economists to get their feedback and inputs for possible incorporation in Budget 2013-14. Chidambaram will present the Budget 2013-14 amid the economic slowdown.

Highlights of 2012 –

Best Sectoral Performance of 2012: Real Estate : +58% in spite of <27% return from 42% of the index..(DLF/GPL/PARSV were the laggards). 2nd Best Index : FMCG +50%...
  Year of Broader mkt recovery: 53 stocks gave more than 100% return in 2012 (range being +800% to -90%). Among these, the only names with more than 20 BUYS at the start of 2012: Shree Cement / Sobha Developers…
  Biggest Drag on Nifty in last 5yrs: RIL – the darling of investors once upon a time. RIL (-313pts) vs Nifty -175pts; and ITC (+330pts).
  Biggest Drag on Nifty in Last 3yrs: RIL (-135pts) vs Nifty +735pts; and again ITC (+285pts).

(IIFL.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Levels to be watched closely 5835 & 5885, both has good support while resistance seems 5950-5980-6040

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 8.43% and ended at 13.69 against 14.95 and FNO PCR is 1.02.

The Indian currency gained after the US Senate voted in favour of averting the fiscal cliff. Hopes are the inflows will continue following the development.

The rupee rose 0.6% and ended at 54.68 than its previous close of 54.99.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1426.19 up 23.76 at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040 for current week.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Auto Sector – to shine in first quarter of 2013

Metal Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Realty Sector - to shine in first quarter of 2013

Pvt. Banks - to shine in first quarter of 2013

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 106.55 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 104.4 (Gain -3%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 48.7 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stock can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Today’s MG Mantra –

Enjoy the ride.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.