Morning Bells (22 Nov 13)

Morning Bells (22 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Thought of the day – Miss anything  for your best life but don’t miss best life for anything.

It was completely unpredictable day for me, people are saying it fell down due Fed tapering indication, but it was already cleared in last Fed meeting that they will scale down in next few meetings then what made this fall so deep.

It was not just profit booking but its offloading which is very dangerous. Now experts are just hoping that like last time when Nifty will find support around current level.

The fall can also be attributing to weakness in rupee and rising government bond yields. Data from China showing slower growth in the manufacturing sector also hampered the investing mood.

The news also not in favour - Meanwhile, according to Fitch Ratings, India's narrowing current account deficit will not be enough to shield the country from pressures tied to Fed tapering, reports Reuters.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

So all of sudden it turned to negative, may be this statement help the bulls - "The taper will occur well after the first quarter in 2014," Christopher Palmer of Henderson Global said.

So no outlook at the moment just a wise advice, most probably Nifty to hold 5980 (on closing) and if it breaks 5950 decisively then we may see steep fall and next stop will be somewhere around 5600-5700 mean we will be there from where this fund flow rally was started.

OPENING – Can be uncertain mean flat and then market will look for cues to move further.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S – 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

FRL –

Future Retail was down nearly 7% to Rs73.5 after report said that National Stock Exchange (NSE) decided to remove the stock from future and options (F&O) contract from January 31, 2014 onwards.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000

Open Call –

Morning Bells (21 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Insan do wazah se badal jata he… pehla koi khaas oosaki zindagi me aa jaye, doosara – koi khaas oosaki zindagi se chala jaye.

It was again a day of profit booking, I was too sure about this move and had issues warning on FB that till your don’t see Nifty +5 don’t consider its turning into buying mode and suggested that we may see Nifty       -65/-70 and it really worked but bad thing is that I didn’t benefit from it as in meantime Nifty gave false signals of narrow range and my thought was that it will erode option premium else I was holding 3 lots of 6200PE which I exited on average of 70 while it made high of 99.

Well, after enjoying three-days of gains, market ended with losses on Wednesday amid some strong offloading witnessed in the last hour of the trading session.

The main reason for this offloading was - Traders and investors remained cautious ahead of the US economic data and minutes of the US Fed meeting held in October.

The banking stocks were among the major laggards, followed by auto, consumer durables, oil and gas and the capital goods stocks. Only the BSE metals and small-cap index ended with marginal gains.

Diesel to deregulate –

Diesel prices will be deregulated in six months with gradual price increases, Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily said today. "In six months, diesel sector will be deregulated," he said at the KPMG Energy Conclave here.

State-owned fuel retailers, who control 95 percent of the petrol pump sales, sell diesel at government-fixed rates, which are way lower than the cost of production.

The government had in January this year allowed them to increase the price by up to 50 paisa a litre every month as part of a plan to gradually remove the subsidies given on the fuel. "Under-recoveries (losses on diesel sales) had come down to Rs 2.50 because of monthly increases but they soared to Rs 14 as rupee depreciated sharply. Currently, under-recoveries on diesel are at about Rs 9.28 per litre," Moily later told reporters.

BSE/SEBI to shift scrips to restricted group –

As a part of Surveillance measures the Exchange transfers various scrips for settlement on a Trade-to-Trade basis.

The criteria for shifting scrip’s to/fro for settlement on trade to trade basis are decided jointly by the stock exchanges in consultation with SEBI and reviewed periodically. 

The detailed criteria of shifting scrip to/from Trade-to-Trade is available on website at http://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/sur_Price_monitoring.aspx?expandable=5.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

We have got indication about huge sell off when last week Nifty failed to break 6300/6250 mark as for short term it was a dead end for Nifty and we see heavy sell off then again due to some newsflow it rebound. Today again we seen that is happening. If you look at the picture, banks and metals were the only reason Nifty rebound from 6050 to 6200. From both banks were really giving false signal, if you remember I am not giving any view since past one month whenever one has asked for a view, my simple answer was “I am out of trade from banking segment” today both lost its steam and market turned into heavy sell off.

I had also warned day before y’day that when I had a look to 8 years chart, it shows Nifty to remain well below of Oct. high which is 6300.

But I also stated that buying in some cyclic stock can be seen regardless of what is happening in market and you can see that instead of 80 points fall in Nifty many stocks ended in green. You just need to find out cyclic stocks and beaten down stock and need to track them on daily basis, and any uncertain day you can see a rally in those stocks.

The only thing is in favour of our market is – brokerage firms are preferring India over China but CAD and Inflation is the only worry for them.

Well once again I will remind here my old and gold range, Nifty to find base in my critical suggested range 5980-6020 while to make new high or trend changer to bullish view Nifty needs to close above 6350 for 2 successive day.

OPENING – Opening seems flat to positive as there’s nothing to come out from what Market was really worrying about it.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S –6120 – 6080- 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Sugar Cos –

Sugar stocks rallied between 5-12 percent on hopes of resolution of the sugar crisis in the informal meeting that was scheduled today. The Finance Minister says the cabinet will take a decision next week on the sugar issue. However agriculture minister says no decision has been made yet, as the government is not in the position to give any money.

The mill owners are willing to pay Rs 225 for a quintal of sugar. The state government has advised a price of Rs 280, difference of Rs 55, the sugar business feels can be met either by way of a direct subsidy by the UP government or through several other options.

Allowing sugar mills to sell molasses to liquor industry at market prices, allowing co-generation prices of the sugar industry to be hiked, are things that the UP government will have to mull carefully.

Next week some decision will be taken by the centre and as the crushing season proceeds, with political situation building up, the future of 35 lakh farmers is at stake.

TM –

Tata Motors is reportedly planning to launch two all-new products next year. The new products, a hatchback and compact sedan will be launched  in February.

“We have planned a portfolio where we will be bringing new vehicles every year up to 2020. Next year, we will launch completely new cars,” Ranjit Yadav, president (passenger vehicle business unit), Tata Motors reported.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000

Open Call –

Morning Bells (20 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Me aksar sochta hoon ki waqt ke sath har koi bada jata he… Galati oosaki nahi jo badal jata he balki Galati oosaki he jo pahale jaisa rah jata he.

After 2 days rally market took breather, it decline to move further also due to subdued performance across the global markets. In Asia, Nikkei closed at 15,126 down 37 points, while Hang Seng closed 23,657 down 2.25 points.

Overall banking stocks were in action y’day, SBI was up 3.18%, Oriental Bank was 4.72% up, PNB rose 3.57%, SBI gained 3.18%, BOB was 3.16% up, IndusInd Bank increased 2.38%, South Indian Bank was 2.13% up and J&K Bank was 1.57% up on BSE.

Sentiment got boosted - Based on the recommendations of Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) in its meeting held on October 24, 2013, the Government of India has approved 20 proposals of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) amounting to Rs. 915.83 crore approximately. 

New Development – Equal Treatment to FII and FDI

Finance ministry and a Reserve Bank of India panel is working on proposals to ensure equal treatment for foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and foreign direct investments (FDIs). The panel has discussed a 49 percent cap on FII investment.

The Budget had put forth the proposal saying that FII and FDI definition should be clarified, below 10 percent would be FII and above that would be FDI. The panel which includes the Economic Affairs (EA) Secretary Arvind Mayaram, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor HR Khan as well as Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) EDs is looking at building this transition mechanism.

The panel has discussed that there should be a 49 percent cap for FII and FDI tends to come in through the portfolio route because there are no conditions on FII investment. FII investment can go up till the sectoral cap with just a board resolution. In order to ensure that, for instance in multi brand retail, the FDI that comes in meets with stringent conditions and the FII doesn’t. In order to ensure equal treatment, there should be a 49 percent cap on FII investment.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Next week is important for market, first we have expiry in that week and same time state election will begin. Two weeks from now the state election results are expected to come out. If the factors which people are expecting for the change in the government probably does happen.

Bias remain positive but volatility can take place as we are heading towards expiry.

Opening seems on Negative note as most of Asian market ended in red and EU and US are also trading in negative territorial.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S –6120 – 6080- 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

OI Activity –

Nifty call options added 13.46 lakh shares in open interest whereas put options added 25.95 lakh shares in open interest.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

BHEL –

Reposing confidence in Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL)’s proven technological excellence, NTPC Ltd. has placed a major order on the company for supply and installation of the main plant package for a power project in Uttar Pradesh, involving one thermal power generating unit of 500 MW.

Valued at Rs. 13,000mn, the order for the supply and installation of the Steam Generator, Steam Turbine Generator and Electrics Package for the upcoming 500 MW Feroze Gandhi Unchahar Thermal Power Project (TPP), has been received from NTPC BHEL Power Projects Private Limited (NBPPL), a joint venture between NTPC and BHEL.

ICICI Bank –

ICICI Bank on Monday hit the overseas bond market to raise $500-$750 million under its $5 billion global medium-term note (GMTN) programme.

The initial pricing of the loan is 3.75 per cent over the US treasury. The amount would be raised through the bank’s Dubai International Finance Centre branch.

Power Grid -

State-run Power Grid Corporation of India 's sale of shares, valued at about USD 1.2 billion, is likely to open on December 3, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, in a process that could revive the government's divestment programme.

Power Grid said on Monday that it had filed for a follow-on offering of 78.7 crore shares, or 17 percent stake, with the market regulators.

The offering includes fresh issue of 60.1 crore shares and disinvestment of 18.5 crore shares, or 4 percent stake, by the Indian government.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -6600 - 700 (Loss Nifty 6200 PEs) = -7400

Open Call –

Morning Bells (19 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Never cry for the person who hurts you, just smile and say: Thanks for giving me the chance to find someone better than you.

It was a day of stellar gains as the Indian equity market extended the momentum for the second trading session on Monday.

Sentiment also got a boost after the Indian rupee strengthened against the US Dollar and was trading at its 1-week high. The rupee was trading strong by 67 paise around the 62.44 against the dollar.

Last week, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had assured that he will not roll back the special dollar swap window for oil companies in a hurry.

Well, another positive news was in market - In order to ease liquidity stress to Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE) sector, the Reserve Bank of India today has extended the liquidity support to micro, small and medium enterprises.

“It has been decided to provide refinance Rs. 5,000 crore to the Small Industrial Development Bank of India (SIDBI),” the RBI said in a notification.

Sentiment also got boosted when positive news flow coming out of China. The rally was also on hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue its USD 85 billion monthly bond buying programme.

Brokerage house UBS has upgraded China to ‘overweight’ on the bet that the dragon country is due for a re-rating and simultaneously cut its rating on India to 'neutral' from 'overweight'.

"A re-rating on the other hand of China over the coming weeks is likely to make India pale by comparison. India is not likely to get much benefit from a China move—albeit more flows to emerging market equities might help if the China story attracts broader capital back to EM," UBS report said.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Well we are round the corner of end of 2013 and to welcome 2014. In regards for our market, Election uncertainty and tapering concerns will keep markets volatile in 2014.

Well trend seems up (if there’s no bad news in current) and Nifty can test this time new high. Metal sector forming a bullish pattern, Bakes giving positive sign so all seems in favour of upmove. May there some selling pressure as still few investors are not comfortable with higher range.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6240 – 6290 – 6350

S –6120 – 6080- 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

OI Activity –

Nifty (November) futures’ premium decreased marginally from 32.80 points to 28.05 points.

Nifty call options underwent a reduction of 12.60 lakh shares in open interest whereas put options added 22.45 lakh shares in open interest.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

OMCs –

Rating agency Fitch today said government may have to shift part of the soaring oil subsidy bill of the current financial year to the next fiscal. The government had allocated Rs 65,000 crore for petroleum subsidies in 2013-14, of which Rs 45,000 crore has already been utilised to pay the oil marketing companies to meet their subsidy requirement of previous financial year.

The government is now left with Rs 20,000 crore to meet the subsidy burden, arising out of under-recoveries of OMCs. "This is likely to be insufficient, and it is likely that the state will have to tap around Rs 45,000 crore from next year's budget," Fitch said in a report.

Dena Bank –

Dena Bank said that it will lower its credit growth target to 16% as against 18% this fiscal, according to a media report. The public sector lender had reported 18% credit growth till March-end in the previous fiscal. The scrip was up 3% and closed at Rs56.95 on NSE.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -6600 - 700 (Loss Nifty 6200 PEs) = -7400

Open Call –