Morning Bells (26 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Shakespeare did not pass M.A. in English, but now no one can pass M.A. in English without reading Shakespeare books.

The Nifty has re-conquered the 5,900 mark, closing the April F&O series on a high. The Sensex too shut shop above 19,400.

The markets rallied in the last half an hour of trade after volume-weighted average price-based buying in banking and auto stocks lifted the Nifty nearly 60 points from the day’s low. In lay terms, VWAP is the ratio of average traded price to the total volume traded over a particular time horizon.

Gainers –

Dr Reddys Labs, GAIL, Tata Motors, NTPC and Axis Bank were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

TCS, DLF, HCL Tech, Infosys and Jaiprakash Associates were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral –

Shares of auto, pharma, oil&gas, metal, banks and power saw heavy buying in trade today. IT, telecom and realty stocks ended with marginal losses. IT stocks were biggest laggards in this series.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

ECB Monetary Policy -

The ECB is constrained essentially in terms of monetary policy they will keep interest rates low, monetary policy will continue to be loose, according to experts.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Market is a bit excited with RBI policy, FII buying in cash which shows a small headroom is there.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 5.7% and ended at 14.20 against previous close of 15.07.

FNO PCR was 1.17 against previous close 1.23.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 16 paisa and was trading at 54.22 against its previous close of 54.38.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1591.57 up 12.78 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –

Friday – Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As informed since Monday - Nifty and Bank Nifty futures are seeing long rollovers of around 28% and 20%, so now 5760 could act as strong support as huge put writing seen in 5800 April option.

The Nifty gained close to 4 percent in the April series. Midcap and smallcap stocks also performed well. Bank Nifty was the star performer with massive 12 percent gains in this series. The hopes of rate cut picked up pace after March inflation data which were announced on April 15 touched 40-month low.

Since Nifty closed above 5900, so we can see some up swing before RBI policy, say Nifty can attempt to 6000 level and then further move or decline will depend on RBI announcement. Still 5965 is a hurdle. But positive part which I am seeing right now is FII buying in the cash market. Their short covering is more or less done in Index.

So keep eye on 5965-6000 range, if one sees the calls of May series, the maximum build-up that one can be seeing is a 5900 Call option. It is quite possible that market may go a bit higher than 5900, and change the consensus that it is losing the steam. We might probably touch 6,000 figure also and from there the correction may happen and if closed above then 6160 is possible.

Also suggested that 5760-80 will act as good support for Nifty.

Intraday Resistance – 6014 – 5969 – 5942 and Support – 5871 – 5826 – 5800 (Pivot 5898)

Opening – Seems on positive note but will see some pressure as today we have some major Q4 nos.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –

According to experts luxury brand Land Rover continues to grow ahead of competition in China, one of its biggest market, even as the overall luxury car demand there has slowed down a bit.

High demand for luxury vehicles from increasingly affluent Chinese has led to strong sales for companies like Audi, Mercedes, BMW and JLR.

Jaguar Land Rover now accounts for over 90 percent of Tata Motors' consolidated earnings. It sold 77,000 units in China last year, and is expected to race ahead of Europe (excluding UK) and become its largest market.

In order to cash in on the strong demand in China, JLR last year struck a deal with local car maker Chery Automobile Co to manufacture vehicles there. It is also expanding its dealer network to 200 from 100 last year.

After a surge in 2012, growth in tier I cities in China is now flat for most luxury brands, but JLR demand remains strong since Land Rover is considered must have brand in a wealthy Chinese's car portfolio, the analysts said.

My View – As suggested earlier TM may continue its onward journey and now TM is next price band which is 291-305, one can hold TM with SL 281.

Rcom –

Dear investors got secret news earlier and that’s Rcom shot up approx 15% this week, news was –

Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Jio is planning to sign an intra circle fibre pact with Anil Ambani's Reliance Communications, says media reports.

According to reports, intra circle fibre pact is likely to be valued at Rs 36-45bn.

Reliance Jio which is expected to launch services in December, will need tower network 4-5 months prior to that, report said.

Hero MotoCorp – Profit seen down 18% according to experts

Hero MotoCorp will report its fourth quarter earnings on Friday, amid what has been a continued slump in demand in the two-wheeler industry.

The India's largest two-wheeler company by sales is expected to report a 18 percent year-on-year decline in quarterly net profit at Rs 493 crore and revenue may slip 0.2 percent to Rs 6,020 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll.

Hero Moto in particular has been facing an onslaught from its former partner Honda, which has become very agressive now and has launched motorcycles directly pitched against Hero's highest selling Splendor.

Maruti Suzuki – Revenue seen up 15%

Maruti Suzuki India  will kickstart auto sector earnings on Friday. Passenger car sales have been downhill for the past year now and so the street will keenly eye the company's performance in the fourth quarter and how it sees the road ahead.

Analysts expect the India's largest passenger car maker to report around 30-35 percent sequential rise (around 6-7 percent year-on-year) in quarterly net profit. Its revenue is expected to rise around 15 percent quarter-on-quarter (10 percent YoY), despite lower volumes compared to a year ago, helped by price hikes and improved mix (higher percentage of diesel vehicles).

Sales of passenger cars, especially petrol driven, have been sluggish over the last one year due to expensive loans and high interest rates. Maruti's compact car (Alto, WagonR, A-Star) sales too have taken a hit, although its DZire compact sedan and Ertiga multi-utility vehicle are in huge demand.

Siemens -

On the back of sluggish business environment, electrical and electronics company, Siemens  is likely to report 7.4 percent year-on-year decline in sales to Rs 3517 crore for the March quarter. Net profit is also expected to fall 45.8 percent YoY to Rs 165 crore as big ticket orders were hard to come by.    

Indian IT Sector –

Experts feels the passage of the proposed US Immigration Bill in its current form would be negative for the Indian IT sector and weaken competitiveness versus MNC IT players and depress margins.

IDBI –

IDBI Bank 's fourth quarter net profit fell by 28 percent year-on-year to Rs 554.5 crore.

However, net interest income rose by 18.9 percent to Rs 1,440 crore in January-March quarter FY13 from Rs 1,211 crore in a year ago period.

Gross non-performing asset (NPA) dropped by 45 basis points Q-o-Q to 3.22 percent and net NPA declined 35 basis points to 1.58 percent during the quarter.

Provisions against bad loans slipped to Rs 869 crore in fourth quarter as against Rs 963 crore in previous quarter.

Other income jumped 45.9 percent to Rs 1,147 crore from Rs 786 crore during the same period.

IndiaBulls Real Estate -

Indiabulls Real Estate 's fourth quarter (January-March) net profit fell more than 7 percent year-on-year to about Rs 52 crore on the back higher tax expenses, which rose to Rs 22 crore from Rs 76 lakh a year back.

During the quarter, the net revenue slipped about 7 percent to Rs 412 crore.

However, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 31 percent YoY to Rs 137 crore during the quarter. The operating profit margin improved 33 percent as against 23.5 percent in corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The company managed to reduce its inventory to Rs 723 crore compared with Rs 930 crore in the previous year. This suggests an improvement in sales. Net sales more than doubled from Rs 32 crore to Rs 77 crore YoY. In the recent past, many real estate companies were stuck due to rising inventories in abasence of adequate demand.

Debt equity ratio, a measure of company's financial health, marginally rose to 0.18% as against 0.17% a year back.

JSPL -

Jindal Steel and Power has posted a 35 percent year-on-year decline in its March quarter profit to Rs 760 crore on higher finance cost. Sales climbed 2 percent YoY to Rs 5583 crore. On better volumes

While its iron and steel revenues were up 9 percent YoY to Rs 4840, sales in power division declined 11.7 percent to Rs 1130 crore

EBIT margins in iron and steel stood at 16 percent as against 27 percent (YoY)

Power vertical's EBIT margins stood at 49 percent versus 49 percent (YoY)  

Idea Cellular –

Telecom operator Idea Cellular 's consolidated net profit grew by 34.7 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 308 crore in March quarter, helped by strong subscriber additions. The company fared well operationally on all fronts.

Consolidated net revenue increased by 8.7 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 6,061 crore led by 8.5 percent jump in voice minutes to 143 billion Q-o-Q, said Himanshu Kapania, managing director, Idea Cellular.

Analysts on an average had expected net profit at Rs 266 crore and revenues at Rs 5,873 crore for the quarter.

ICICI Bank – Result Today

India's largest lender ICICI Bank is likely to report 21 percent year-on-year rise in its net profit for fourth quarter (Jan-March) at Rs 2,307 crore. Net interest income or the difference between interest earned and paid out, would grow 17 percent to Rs 3,644 crore, according to a poll estimate by CNBC TV18.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TV18 – Bought @28.5 TG 34+ SL 25.5 (Qty 1K)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +5750

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr = +1600

Today’s MG Mantra –

New series, just relax and ride on rate sensitive stock till RBI policy.

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Have a Profitable day – MG

Morning Bells (25 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Shakespeare did not pass M.A. in English, but now no one can pass M.A. in English without reading Shakespeare books.

After rallying for five straight trading sessions, the markets took a breather on Tuesday. After opening on a flat note, the markets remained under pressure throughout the day. However, a sudden bout of buying in the last hour of trade lifted the benchmark indices from the day’s lows. But it was barely sufficient for the markets to end on a positive note.

The late upswing was led by the pharma, IT, oil and gas and select telecom stocks. Capital goods, consumer durables, realty and banking stocks witnessed some profit booking.

Gainers –

RIL, Wipro, TCS, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, NTPC, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto and Dr Reddy’s Labs were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

Tata Power, L&T, Bharti Airtel, SBI, Gail India, Sterlite, Tata Motors, Coal India, ONGC, Jindal Steel and M&M were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral –

Mid-Cap index flat with a negative bias while the Small-Cap index ended with smart gains.

Domestic Front –

India earned in Petroleum export –

The Minister of State for Petroleum & Natural Gas Smt. Panabaaka Lakshmi informed the Rajya Sabha in a written reply today that since 2001-02 India is a net exporter of petroleum products. The Minister also informed that during 2011-12, the country exported 60.8 MMT of Petroleum products worth US Dollars 59.3 billion. 

She further said that increase in refining capacity is an integral part of the strategy for meeting the growing demand of refined petroleum products and improve the energy security of the country.

Fall in Commodity Prices bad for India, Experts -

Indian macros are increasingly looking better than what they did a while back, mainly on account of cool off in global commodity prices . However, Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics says the benefit is only in the short-term; in the long run, it will be bad news for India as well.

While fall in commodity prices benefit commodity importing countries, (like India), in the longer run if it is pricing in softer global economic growth, then that is going to be bad news for India as well.

LIC sells shares worth Rs. 8800 Cr. –

State-run insurance giant LIC has lowered its exposure in 17 blue-chip firms, with sale of shares worth an estimated amount of over Rs 8,800 crore, in the quarter ended March 31, 2013.

Life Insurance Corporation of India's holding increased in nine Sensex companies during the January-March 2013 quarter, showed an analysis of the shareholding pattern of Sensex constituents.

Global Front –

FDI dips 19% -

India received foreign direct investment (FDI) worth USD 1.79 billion in February, 2013-  a decline of about 19 percent due to global economic slowdown.

In February 2012, the country had received FDI worth USD 2.21 billion. In January this year, the country had attracted USD 2.15 billion FDI.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 7% and ended at 15.07 against previous close of 16.22.

FNO PCR was 1.23 against previous close 1.19.

Indian Rupee – Rupee weakened by 20 paisa and was trading at 54.38 against its previous close of 54.18.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1582.31 up 3.53 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty and Bank Nifty futures are seeing long rollovers of around 28% and 20%, so now 5760 could act as strong support as huge put writing seen in 5800 April option.

Intraday Resistance – 5909 – 5877 – 5856 and Support – 5804 – 5771 – 5751 (Pivot 5824)

Opening – Seems flat ahead of expiry and can be in wild swing in second half.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –

TM showing strength and can move up a bit, but a cautious approach is required as quarter by quarter its sales going weak and definitely it would impact its final result.

View – TM may continue its onward journey, once again keep in mind my favourite price bands for TM which is above 271 its 289-291, above that 305 around level. Would suggest to book profit around /above 289 level.

HDFC Bank –

HDFC Bank Q4 PAT stood at Rs18.90bn, while Q4 net NPa's stood at 0.2%.

For the Consolidated period, the profit for the year attributable to the Group of Rs. 68696.40 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs. 52470.20 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 341857.20 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 429939.90 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013.


The company has announced that the Board of Directors of the Bank at its meeting held on April 23, 2013, inter alia, have recommended a dividend of Rs. 5.50 per equity share of Rs. 2/- each (i.e. 275%) out of the net profits for the year ended March 31, 2013.

Tata Power & R-Infra –

According to reports,  Appellate Tribunal For Electricity upheld the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (MERC) September 2010 order, and refused to expunge the adverse remarks made by the regulator against Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (R-Infra).

The matter relates to tussle between R-Infra and Tata Power Co. Ltd for larger share of consumers in suburban Mumbai after SC in July 2008 accepted Tata Power’s contention that it had a licence to distribute electricity across Mumbai, says report.

Tata Power announced its decision to withdraw 762 MW power it was supplying to R-Infra without any formal power purchase agreement between the two parties.

MERC in its September 2010 order had reported, “R-Infra has been repeatedly directed by the Commission to take all necessary steps to contract for the necessary power requirement expeditiously

R-Infra moved ATE demanding removal of this and many other observations by MERC against it.

JSW Steel -

JSW Steel plans to bid for iron ore mining blocks in Karnataka that could go up for auction after a Supreme Court order last week, as the country's third-largest steel producer looks to cut its dependence on costly imports.

JSW and rivals such as Essar Steel have been forced to import iron ore due to a ban on mining in two states of India, once the world's third-largest iron ore exporter that is expected to be a net importer this year.

"The lifting of the SC's ban is a positive for us and will help in increasing capacity utilisation," CMD Sajjan Jindal told CNBC-TV18.  "It will also reduce cost overheads. JSW will not get access to good quality iron ore."

Axis Bank –

Aided by higher interest and other income Axis Bank the third largest private sector lender reported a forecast beating 22 percent year-on-year rise in its fourth quarter (Jan-March) net profit at Rs 1,555 crore. Net interest income (NII) or the difference between interest earned and paid out, rose 24 percent YoY to Rs 2,665 crore.

On an average, analysts had expected Q4 net profit to grow 12 percent at Rs 1431. NII would rise 22 percent to Rs 2,615 crore.

"It was a strong quarterly performance in an adverse environment," Somnath Sengupta, Executive Director Axis Bank told reporters in a conference call.

Jet - Etihad –

Jet Airways will sell a minority stake to fast-growing Abu Dhabi-based carrier Etihad Airways for Rs 2,060 crore (roughly USD 379 million) after months of negotiations.

India's largest airline by market share said in a brief statement to the stock exchange that its board approved the allotment to Etihad of 27.3 million shares at Rs 754.74 each on a preferential basis.

The price represents a 31.7 percent premium to Jet's closing share price on Tuesday. Indian markets were closed on Wednesday.

No other details were immediately available but two sources involved in the deal who declined to be identified said the shares would be newly issued, and would represent 24 percent of Jet's expanded share capital.

FY13: It posted a net profit of Rs 2655.43 crore for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs 2446.19 crore for the year ended March 31, 2012. Total income has increased from Rs 18681.72 crore for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs 20479.94 crore for the year ended March 31, 2013.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +5750

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr = +7900 – 6300 = +1600

(Book loss in Titan PE, bought 4.3 exit 0.8 = -3500, Voltas CE bought 1.2 sold 0.5, 2 lots = -2800)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Here are chances – 50% Nifty can back around 5800 levels or even below, 30% chances to trade in 5820-5865 and 20% chances to close around above 5900. So all would depend on volume, so just keep eye on volumes and then take positions accordingly.

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Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Have a Profitable day – MG