Morning Bells (04 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Successful people can’t relax in chairs, they relax I work, they sleep with a dream & awake with commitments and work towards the GOAL.

It was a handsome recovery on D-street and I am feeling great because once again Nifty is behaving on wave lines, y’day its just closed 5909 and my TG was 5910. If you have remembered we had discussed that if Nifty first starts declining from 5930 then TG was 5750 and strong support was 5700 from where it bounced back. Now if it attempt to 5990-6020 will again improve our confidence. We will witness selling pressure once Nifty will enter to this zone, somehow signal giving sense that against all popular prediction it can breach this physiological level, not confirm yet but on safe side I will lighten up my portfolio and will be with strict SL.

So feel good and fall under tempt, this is only due to weak dollar and temporary shutdown in US Govt. Rupee jumped over 1% tracking weakness in the dollar. The rupee was trading strong by 65 paise at 61.82 against the dollar. One more reason was there - The fresh measures to boost investor sentiment are likely to be announced after Sebi's next board meeting, which is expected to be held on October 5.

Another one - The Finance Ministry has decided to infuse more funds in public sector banks (PSBs), so that they can offer loans at cheaper rates. North Block has decided to infuse more than the budgeted Rs 14,000 crore into PSBs to help stimulate demand
Well, the benchmark indices surged higher despite no progress in the US on the dispute between Democrats and Republicans in Congress regarding shutdown.

Sebi to announce measures to boost economy –

Capital market regulator Sebi will soon announce more measures to improve the country's investment climate, including for foreign investors.

Sebi would be taking steps to attract more retail investors into the stock market besides charting out the operational framework for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as per suggestions made by the high-level Chandrasekhar committee, according to an official.

Currency Moves –

Rupee weakened further by 44 paisa and was trading at 62.51/dollar.

Federal Shutdown & Market –

I don’t know how many of you would have thought about it, so lets have look on this situation.

The shutdown will essentially be a “non-event” for the markets. According to global market experts - This has happened so many times before that the shutdown will not have much of a bearing at all.

Over the last 20 years there have been 12 government shutdowns ranging from one day to 28 days, with the average being 9 days. The market has fallen prior to previous shutdowns, but then rallied for months thereafter.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing great at the moment, Nifty bounced back from 5700 mark which was physiological level, so if my wave is correct then it will move a bit further and then around 5960 or in between 5990-6020 we may see a sharp decline. So keep eye on these 2 levels and exit longs and wait for further direction.

Mainly market will behave next week on Q2 earnings and economic data.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 5960/74 – 6020 - 6094 – 6140/45 – 6230 (5990-6020 range can be act as crucial resistance and trend changer)

S – 5840 – 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

DMA – 100DMA – 5806, 200DMA - 5840

Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

3 Oct – Hexaware OFS

11 Oct – IIP & PMI data, Result – Infy

12 Oct – Dussera Holiday

14 Oct - WPI

17 Oct – US senate voting.

21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

FMCG –

Second half of this financial year, one is going to see fair bit of buoyancy in rural economy because of monsoons, better agricultural prices and election related spending, that is an important pack to be in.

So FMCG pack which has significant revenues coming in from rural India.

Media Sector & Telecom –

Keep eye on these sectors where reforms are happening in a relatively silent manner. If one looks at the media sector where because of digitization now spreading from four cities to another 38 cities, one is going to see significant pickup in subscription revenues. In addition to that- FDI related news on telecom sector makes it a good candidate to outperform. On the whole, a handful of these sectors could continue to outperform the broader markets.

Infy –

Infosys, a global leader in consulting, technology and outsourcing solutions, announced that it has signed a contract with Toyota Motor Europe for the provision of its Pan-European application support.

The four-year engagement will see Infosys deploy a managed service model, covering applications across a variety of Toyota’s operational areas in Europe, including core automotive processes (such as supply chain, manufacturing, sales, after sales and customer service) and corporate functions (including human resources and finance).
This will enable Toyota’s IT employees to focus on business support and project development, in addition to supporting cost optimization. 

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000

Yes Bank 340CE @18 SL 308 in cash – stopped out at 16

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Morning Bells (03 Oct. 13)

Good Morning Friends.

There are two reasons why we don’t trust some people. First – we don’t know them. Second – we know them.

So was a relief for a day y’day. Well now we are into Oct. and this is month of earning no.s and specially of auto sector so keep eye on major auto players and make some profit before Dasara. Month is started on positive note and as its bounced back from 5700 level and closed above 5750 tempting for another 100 points. 5880 would be a crucial level and remember it.

On global front after 17 years, the US Federal government started its first partial shutdown on Monday night as Congress failed to authorise any federal spending for fiscal 2014, which begins on October 1.

Y’day’s recovery was led by the interest-rate sensitive stocks like the banking, realty and the auto.

On Monday the Reserve Bank of India announced that the current account deficit (CAD) increased to 4.9% of GDP to US$21.8bn in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal. CAD was 4.4% or US$16.9bn in the same quarter of last fiscal, 2012-13.

PMI –

Operating conditions across the Indian manufacturing sector deteriorated for the second consecutive month in September. However, both output and new orders contracted at slower rates. Still, faced with fewer projects, companies reduced their workforce numbers for the first time since February 2012.

Up from 48.5 in August to 49.6 in September, the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) indicated a marginal and slower deterioration of business conditions in India. However, the PMI quarterly average for Q3 was the lowest since Q1 2009.

Currency Moves –

Rupee weakened further by 44 paisa and was trading at 62.51/dollar.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing great at the moment, Nifty bounced back from 5700 mark which was physiological level, so if my wave is correct then it will move a bit further and then either around 5880 or 5960 we may see a sharp decline. So keep eye on these 2 levels and exit longs and wait for further direction.

And if today again it start moving back to 5700 mark on shutdown of US govt. then 5610 journey seems coming true.

Mainly market will behave this week on Q2 earnings, so no.s from major player will also play a significant role. So lets hope for the best and see how its going on.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 5753 – 5796 - 5831 – 5880 - 5960 (5880 & 5960 can be act as crucial resistance and trend chaner)

S – 5700 – 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

DMA – 100DMA – 5814, 200DMA - 5841

Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120

EVENTS –

3 Oct – Hexaware OFS

17 Oct – US Senate voting.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

FMCG –

Second half of this financial year, one is going to see fair bit of buoyancy in rural economy because of monsoons, better agricultural prices and election related spending, that is an important pack to be in.

So FMCG pack which has significant revenues coming in from rural India.

Media Sector & Telecom –

Keep eye on these sectors where reforms are happening in a relatively silent manner. If one looks at the media sector where because of digitization now spreading from four cities to another 38 cities, one is going to see significant pickup in subscription revenues. In addition to that- FDI related news on telecom sector makes it a good candidate to outperform. On the whole, a handful of these sectors could continue to outperform the broader markets.
Auto Sector –

A surprise increase in interest rates and rising car prices in September have tempered hopes for a turnaround in India's struggling autos sector, with some analysts pushing back forecasts for a sustained recovery to next financial year. Car sales in India have fallen nearly 6 percent so far in the current financial year to August, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, as high ownership costs in a slowing economy have prompted consumers to postpone purchases.

Auto sales for September 2013 were better than expectations for segments such as two-wheelers, tractors and passenger cars. However, UV sales continued to remain weak. Going ahead, macro concerns such as rising fuel prices, lower incomes and high interest rates would continue to weigh on the volume outlook. We expect two-wheelers to post a relative outperformance in H2 FY14 owing to better than normal monsoons which will drive rural demand. One can bet on HeroMoto on this occasion and M&M can to show some strength.

M&M -

Mahindra and Mahindra’s auto sector sales dipped 10% in September 2013 compared to the same month last year mainly on account of a 21% decline in the sales of its passenger vehicles (UVs and Verito). The company’s total domestic sales stood at 43,289 units versus 48,342 units, while exports at 2,719 units represented a decline of 12%. Shares of M&M closed flat at Rs831.

Maruti –

reported 11.7% increase in total sales in September at 1,04,964 units as against 93,988 units in the same month last year. The company said its domestic sales increased by 1.8% during the month to 90,399 units as against 88,801 units in September last year. Shares of Maruti gained by 2% to close at Rs1382.

TM –

Tata Motors’ total sales (including exports) of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles in September 2013 were 50,427 vehicles. The company’s domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles for September 2013 were 45,998 nos.  

The company's sales from exports were 4,429 nos. in September 2013. Cumulative sales from exports for the fiscal were 25,035 nos.

OMCs –

The Oil marketing companies dropped the petrol prices by Rs. 3.05 per litre and increased the diesel price by 50 paise per litre (excluding local taxes and VAT). This has been for the first time since May this year, the Oil Marketing companies have reduced the prices of petrol, while the diesel prices have been continuously increased since government partially de-controlled the diesel prices.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000

Yes Bank 340CE @18 SL 308 in cash – stopped out at 16

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Morning Bells (1 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Tow bulls always fight in your mind… Negative thinking and Positive thinking. Do you know which one wins in the end? “THE ONE YOU FEED MOST”

The October series started off on a weak note and continue with its weakness on second consecutive day. If we believe to market statistics, its all in mesh, fundamentals are weak, earnings are going down then what made it to pull back from 5200 to 6000? It was only liquidity and it was FII which pull back Nifty as good as 600 points and now they are selling. So everything is strange here but what I feel that in a mid term view we are going down, there may be small relief rallies in between but I guess what we have discussed about 5000-5200 mark is still on card. So better trade accordingly.

In the past two days the NSE Nifty has lost nearly 200 points as investors faced the growing likelihood of a shutdown of the U.S. government, while political worries in Italy and a downbeat China manufacturing survey also acted as a dampener on sentiment.

Well it should have hold 5750 mark but market participants preferred to exit their positions amid fears of a widening April-June current account deficit. Among the other important data which was scheduled to release later y’day were August fiscal deficit data, Q2 balance of payment data and August Eight infra deficit data.

Important Data –

India’s current account deficit (CAD) in Q1 of 2013-14 was US$ 21.8bn (4.9% of GDP). It was US$16.9bn (4% of GDP) in Q1 of 2012-13. The trade deficit in Q1 of 2013-14 increased owing to a rise in imports and some decline in merchandise exports.

 

The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 154.5 in August, 2013. August Key core industries growth at 3.7%

Fuel Drama to continue –

Petrol price was today cut by Rs 3.05 per litre, the first reduction in rates in over five months and the steepest in over five years, while diesel prices were raised by 50 paise a litre. The price changes announced by oil companies are excluding local sales tax or VAT and will be effective midnight tonight.

While petrol price cut has been made possible because of appreciation in rupee value against US dollar, diesel rates are being hiked as per the practice of increase in rates by small monthly doses to cover losses.

I guess it could be a prior step to justify big price hike in Diesel price in coming months.

Currency Moves –

Rupee weakened further by 44 paisa and was trading at 62.51/dollar.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As discussed y’day, technically Nifty was weak as it was closed below its 200DMA 5841 and now it is round the corner of its physiological level of 5735. If today it attempt to 5700 mark then again selling pressure will intensify.

The Nifty (October) futures’ premium increased marginally from 54.95 points to 56.15 points. Around 6.38 lakh shares were reduced in open interest with a marginal increase in the cost of carry, indicating the short positions were squared off.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 5753 – 5796 - 5831 – 5960 (5960 can be act as crucial resistance and trend chaner)

S – 5700 – 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

DMA – 100DMA – 5814, 200DMA - 5841

Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120

EVENTS –

3 Oct – Hexaware OFS

17 Oct – FOMC voting.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

RelInfra -

Shares of Reliance Infrastructure was down 6% on reports that CRISIL downgraded company's debt programmes and long-term bank facilities to 'CRISIL A+/Negative' from 'CRISIL AA-/Negative'.

RPower –

Shares of Reliance Power was down 4.5% after its CEO J. P. Chalasani resigned last week to pursue his entrepreneurial ambitions and re-locate overseas. 

JSPL –

Charts suggesting significant downside.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000

Yes Bank 340CE @18 SL 308 in cash – stopped out at 16

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