Welcome to the World of MudraGuru: 2013-01-06

Saturday 12 January 2013

Morning Bells (14 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Speak in such a way that others will love to listen to you. Listen in a way that others will love to speak to you.

Market continue with its strange moves that is since past couple of days Nifty opening with good gaps but denying to move further and closing lowers. And still FIIs are bullish on Indian market, they are buying continuously while DII is on sell counter in these days. Well in short after good opening selling pressure witnessed. Infact heavy buying interest in Infy too failed to sustain.

It seems major Indian indices are struggling to get a clear direction after unsuccessful attempts to surpass the 6,050 level. Profit booking seen in High-beta sectors like metals and mid-caps. So may be market can struggle and trend between 5900-6050 few more days as market is eagerly waiting for next trigger which can be either price hike in diesel or finally RBI policy announcement on Jan 29.

The good news is that finally Infosys has beaten expectations after many quarters of underperformance. The stock saw a splendid rally and triggered buying interest in the tech pack.

The foreign exchange reserves slipped by a hefty USD 1.59 billion to USD 294.99 billion on the back of heavy decline in gold reserves and the core currency assets, the Reserve Bank said on Sat 12 Jan. The total reserves had gone up by USD 39.4 million to USD 296.58 billion in the previous reporting week. Foreign currency assets, a major component of the forex reserves, were down by USD 951.7 million to USD 261.062 billion for the week ended January 4, the RBI said in its weekly statistical supplement.

Gainers - Infosys (up 15.4%), Tata Motors (up 4.8%), Wipro (up 4%), ONGC (up 2.7%) and Cipla (up 1.3%) are among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - The top losers in the Sensex were Ambuja Cements (down 9.6%), Hindustan Unilever (down 6.8%), BHEL (down 6.6%), L&T (down 5.9%) and ACC (down 5.1%) are among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On domestic front –

The government today approved a proposal to inject Rs 125.17bn in public sector banks. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said about 9-10 public sector banks will benefit from the capital infusion programme.

Cabinet has cleared 10% divestment in Engineers India Ltd.

Cabinet Committee on Investment will consider clearing 47 oil & gas blocks, including Reliance Industries' producing KG-D6 gas fields, according to reports

Citigroup downgrades India to "underweight" from "neutral", as part of its emerging markets review, saying a rebound in economic growth, corporate risk appetite and the investment cycle may not be as strong as current expectations.

Citigroup adds the "ongoing political battles and the upcoming 2014 elections may make this year noisy."

MARKET OUTLOOK –

This week market to react on corporate earnings of industry heavyweights, especially if there’s any disappointment. This week we have industry heavyweights TCS (Mon 14 Jan) Axis Bank & Reliance Ind. Infra (Tue 15 Jan) with Friday blockbuster Wipro, HDFC Bank & RIL (Fri 18 Jan) and I am expecting no one of them will disappoint and will help Nifty to hold its current levels. And besides earning results India will release December inflation data on Monday which will be watched closely as it will give indication for RBI poloicy rate cut.

Wholesale prices, India's main inflation gauge, are expected to have risen an annual 7.40 percent in December, a Reuters poll showed.

Here one should note that the Nifty had been in a range of 5950-5960 in last two days and had also touched 6030. Right now the Nifty is on the lower end of range. If we exclude Infosys then we have actually broken this range decisively.

Trend is still buy on dips with a bit cautious approach and till 5915 is safe. Next trigger RBI policy on 29 Jan. In between triggers could be announcement on Diesel price hike, and some more triggers would be announcement of good quarterly nos from 2-3 good high beta.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.30% and ended at 13.23 against 13.37 and FNO PCR is 0.97 against previous close 0.84.

Indian Rupee declined further and closed at 54.75 than its previous close 54.56/57.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1472.05 up 0.07 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is just like Nov 12 to till end of Dec 12 series when it got stuck in a narrow range, after good rally on start of series now it stuck in a range and finding hard to move above its physiological level of 6000 mark, so till its not sustain that level confidently it remain subdued as I see further buying momentum come only above 6,025 level and may trade within 6,080-5,950 range.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Resistance – 5999 – 6048 – 6078 and Support – 5921 – 5892 -5843

FII bought 2045 contracts in Index Futures worth Rs. 54.39 Cr. with OI increasing 15,325 contracts, indicating FII booked shorts.

Opening once again seems a bit positive and then remain volatile ahead of TCS Nos & Dec Inflation figure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RIL –

Reliance Industries Limited Chairman Mukesh Ambani reportedly said that it is planning to invest Rs1 lakh crore in Gujarat over three years.

Tata Steel –

Tata Steel KZN reportedly shut two ferrochrome furnaces in South Africa to help power utility Eskom manage.

The Tata-Eskom deal follows shutdowns by other ferrochrome producers in the country, including a joint venture between Merafe Resources and Xstrata, report says.

There were reports that Tata Steel KZN's plant, located at Richards Bay on South Africa's eastern Indian Ocean coast, produces 150,000 tonnes of ferrochrome.

Tata Motors –

CLSA upgraded the stock to "buy" from "outperform" and Credit Suisse upped its rating to "outperform," citing strong growth prospects for Jaguar Land Rover, driven by the new Range Rover and Chinese demand. TM rose 4% on the news and can move further with support of market.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TCS 1400 CE – @16 TG TG-As per your choice Updated SL 12 (Active 11 jan 12)

(Please be cautious with this call, after Infy rally, expectations are high with TCS)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 330 (Gain -1%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 115 (Gain +11%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 45 (Gain +2.5%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

MG Blog –

Cash = 8050.00 (Old) + 1600 = 9,650.00

FNO = +13,500 – 2000 (loss in ICICI 1200CE) = 11,500

Billionaire Club = +30,500 (Old) – 750 = 29,750.00

(Booked Loss in ICICI 1200CE = 27-24 = 3x250=750)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Start lightening up your portfolio or reshuffle your portfolio.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Friday 11 January 2013

Morning Bells (11 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A wrong decision cans double the experience and correct decision cans double the confidence… so don’t worry in either case.

Since past 3 days market is behaving in same manner, opening on positive note and then losing steam. Soon after good opening selling pressure witnessed in Capital Goods and Power stocks.

It seems major Indian indices are struggling to get a clear direction after unsuccessful attempts to surpass the 6,050 level. Profit booking seen in High-beta sectors like metals and mid-caps. So may be market can struggle and trend between 5,900-6,050 few more days. Infact Govt’s decision to hike railway fares which will help in achieving fiscal consolidation, failed to enthuse investors sentiment.

Now all eyes are on Infy Quarterly numbers & IIP No.s, though most of negative is already priced in so even any small surprise can be cheered by the market.

Gainers - ONGC, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, SBI, ITC, Coal India are among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Infosys, TCS , Wipro, NTPC, HDFC, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddys Lab, Bajaj Auto, Hindalco Inds, Mahindra & Mahindra , Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, are among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – Auto, Bankex, PSU and Oil and Gas indices are the gainers while Consumer Durables, Metal, IT, Bankex, Metal, Healthcare, Power, Realty, Capital Goods indices are the losers.

On domestic front –

Cabinet has cleared 10% divestment in Engineers India Ltd.

Cabinet Committee on Investment will consider clearing 47 oil & gas blocks, including Reliance Industries' producing KG-D6 gas fields, according to reports

On global front - China released better-than-expected trade data.

Citigroup adds the "ongoing political battles and the upcoming 2014 elections may make this year noisy."

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As told market seems fatigue and now badly need a trigger for either direction, yes probably to move up. Today is the day of Infy & IIP. IIP wouldn’t be good and is factored, same way Infy result seems a bit down and already factored in, so if Infy surprise with its outlook then will be cheered by market.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.38% and ended at 13.27 against 13.32 and FNO PCR is 0.94 against previous close 0.85.

Indian Rupee gained further and closed at 54.56/57 than its previous close 54.75/76.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1466.64 up 5.62 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is just like Nov 12 to till end of Dec 12 when it got stuck in a narrow range, after good rally on start of series now it stuck in a range and finding hard to move above its physiological level of 6000 mark, so till its not sustain that level confidently it remain subdued as I see further buying momentum come only above 6,025 level and may trade within 6,080-5,950 range.

Its also not ruled out that Nifty is consolidating nicely, no surprise if we see 6100-6150 levels in this series in coming days. But don’t expect any big move from here, trend is up but not on fundamental basis.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Resistance – 6000 – 6031 – 6057 and Support – 5942 – 5915 -5884

FII bought 2045 contracts in Index Futures worth Rs. 54.39 Cr. with OI increasing 15,325 contracts, indicating FII booked shorts.

Opening seems flat and may be first half remain subdued.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Suzlon Energy –

The Kutch wind park, being developed by the Suzlon Group has crossed 1,000 MW (1 GW) of installed capacity.

ICICI Bank –

Lanco Infratech Limited has clarified that ICICI Bank has no contractual relationship with Perdaman.

IT Sector –

Slower growth in discretionary spending and delays in decision making of clients may continue to hurt Indian IT companies' revenue growth in the December quarter. Traditionally, the October-December quarter is a weak quarter for IT companies as the number of working days is lesser compared to other quarters due to the holiday season at the client locations.

Infy –

Infosys is planning to focus more on deals from corporations rather than government, which contributes about 90% to the company's revenue, according to reports.