Friday 19 October 2012

Weekend Special (20-21 Oct 12)

GAMBLING... BETTING.... TRADING..... INVESTMENT....

I have noticed one interesting fact in past few sessions and like to share with you. 


First - Due to some reason and strange market behavior I was feeling uncomfortable in making calls as most of time Nifty moves were strange and stocks were on risk. As I believe its better to sit on cash rather than to loose by unnecessary entering into market on unsecured calls. Blog visitors waited a long for a call as they were expecting new calls but I preferred to sit quite as dont wanted to put their money on risk.

But some people feel uneasy when they do not trade a single day in market, they feel they could have earned as when they think I can buy this stock and the stock goes up, believe it, when we just think for stock, in most of cases it goes up while we entered and we made loss in more cases. Why because when we enter we look for big TGs, we dont follow SLs in hope that it will come in profit a day and finally it goes out of control. I put this strange behavior in the category of betting.


If you read, most of stock experts have sit on cash (since 5-6 trading session), they are just doing small or intraday trades, I just remember 1 or 2 week earlier EU's top Investor was saying "I have enough cash but I am waiting" 


So when I didnt make call I clearly see fall in visitors a bit, fall in messages a bit, I am happy if we are going away from impatience fellows as in this series I took some wrong decision on right calls, mean I made call right but due to impatience (please do not take to heart, I am sorry if it hurt you, as I am not telling about any particular person but I am talking in general about fact) repeated questioning I closed some of rocking calls either in loss or with minimal profit. (This has happened for both Blog & BC)


When I say we do select limited trade, people dont understand it because as told they are looking for 2-3 calls on daily basis and more importantly they want all call should hit TG. I had told earlier that I can do it very easily but then success rate can fall somewhere between 60%-70%. They get disappear. Its OK for us because I take it in another way - I try to understand ball and try my best to convert it into four or six.


Meaning rather than earn few hundreds by putting money on risk on daily basis what if we earn same amount in a series with few select trades. I put such attitude in clever category and can say they are wise traders.


Third comes - some people dont want very big money mean they expect realistic figure (like we expects more than 100% return), they are silent traders, actually they are investors (short to long term), they take good advice, they buy good stocks (both are most important i.e. good advice and good stock) and at comfortable level they book profit. They remain winner in most of cases.

Last one - they just open terminal, read something strange, see stock moving up, they enter without any clue for TG or SL, yes sometimes they make good profit but sometimes when trade goes wrong they wash out all earnings and dip in deep loss. They are real gamblers. If you have good luck line, your bet will give you profit but for what if not?


I also experienced when someone tell like that we dont believe, we just wish he should stop speech. I believe if I start it with 50K today, and start adding 3K-4K every month (by profit), Next year my asset would be 1L+ and I plan it for 5-6 Years then it could be somewhere 5L+ 


STRAGNE???????

Its true, if you have good adviser, if you have patience, if you can control your greed and lastly if you can follow Trade System then you can convert it into even more... WHAT I AM DOING
RIGHT NOW... and the purpose of Blog & Billionaire Club is that only.


Majority think - Its necessary to make PROFIT rather than LOSS


while MG thinks - Its necessary to PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT rather than to LOSE

There's a silver line between two.
So remember - little earned money always a pin point, temp to lose control, temp to bet.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So I am happy if impatience people have stopped following us (as they create noise and also weaken others confidence too, great lesson I have learnt from my last 2 calls of SBI & Axis Bank) as my goal is just to make select people Millionaire and the Multimillionaire in next 5 Years . I MEAN IT AND I WILL DO THAT.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lastly - follow me and my ideology I will make you rich.

GOOD LUCK


===========================================================

Beginner's tool - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market
===========================================================

 Important Message - Next week we have expiry on 25th Oct 12 & one short trading day on Wed 24 on account of Dasara.

Morning Bells (19 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.


Word of Caution - Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

I don’t believe in taking right decisions. I take decisions and then make them right. – Ratan Tata

So finally Nifty came out from a narrow range tag line and closed above 5700 Mark. Y’day mainly interest rates sensitive stocks lifeted the Nifty, Banking, Realty and the Auto stocks were among the top gainers.

Market is behaving very strange, today I had guessed it may give a miss to passing the ball and it did, so next move could be take the ball.

Well, today we have TCS result and market will sharply react on it. It has outperformed in the past few quarters than Infy and the street would expect it to set the pace once again in the second quarter. Market analysts expect TCS to report 3.5-4% sequential revenue growth in the second quarter. Margins are likely to be stable. Nomura, Motilal Oswal and Elara have a "neutral" rating for TCS.     So lets see how TCS surprise the street.

Also Coal India is likely to discuss in the board meeting today the issue of lawsuit filed by The Children's Investment (TCI) Fund Management of the UK against the company.

On Global front China’s GDP grew 7.4% in Q3, after it met market estimates. However, it was marking its slowest pace since early 2009. Along with the GDP numbers, industrial output for September rose 9.2% YoY

US Stocks trading lower in the wake of data showing weekly initial jobless claims were more than expected.

On Thursday 18 October, the members of the European Council had to travel to Brussels for their usual Autumn meeting, market will eye on outcome.

MARKET OUTLOOK
So finally it closed above 5700 mark, now it would be interesting to see whether its crosses 5730-5740 mark or not. As I am guessing 5750 is the capped mark for this series and if it crosses the limit with good volume short cover will drive it to 5800 Mark. Market is behaving extremely strange and is tough to predict and that investors are focusing on the corporate earnings.

Today all eyes will be on ITC and Tata Consultancy Services results.

Its still in No Trade Zone, one can make only Intraday position or can wait for breakout of level either side.

NIFTY
FII once again made long in index futures and covered shorts y’day.

5800CE has highest OI of 1 Crore with unwinding of 15lacs contracts, 5700CE has also seen unwinding of 13 lacs having OI of 54 Lacs. while 5700 PE has added 23.57 lacs and OI has increased to 76 Lacs, 5500PE seen unwinding of 10 lac , 15.6 lacs contracts also added to 5600PE and having highest OI of 94 lacs.

So once again strange OI data table, but such a huge addition giving sense that bears are also gearing up for giving tough fight ahead of expiry.

India Vix slipped another day 2% and closed to 14.76 and Nifty PCR is 0.99.

Now Resistance comes to 5743 - 5769 – 5815 and Supports comes to 5672 – 5625 - 5600.

Trend is not clear, so No trade zone, sitting on cash is always good, just watch out for breakout of any support or resistance will only give clear indication. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels, and then Nifty may retest 5800.

Opening seems subdued say with slightly negative.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Cement Sector
May see some pressure due royalty.

Realty Sector -
Comes under rate sensitive field and will see some pressure. Select stock can perform better with support of Nifty.

Steel Sector -
Steel seems under pressure ahead of China GDP Nos and globally pressure on sector.

Tata Steel – Has broken out its support level and can test 400 mark in coming sessions.

Power Sector
For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Most of expert expecting that the RBI may cut the CRR by 25bps but will this hope really help to Oct. series is the million dollar question.

IT Sector
Heavyweight may see some pressure ahead of US Prez election as fight seems very close.

Auto Sector
TM – As China GDP is as per expectation, I see TM is going to cross 280 Mark if market remain stable or in uptrend, it wont fall much even if market also remain under pressure.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

Deccan Chronicle Holdings & DCB - suggested to exit, keep eye on both stock, once Nifty will settle from its under pressure behaviour both will shine. If you are still holding then no prob, keep it for Mid term bet.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Suggested to buy around 96-97 but soon after suggestion it went up to 102, will try to catch it today as updated TG is 115 (short to mid term bet)

Today’s MG Mantra
Its No Trading Zone, watch for breakout of either side else play only Intraday and close positions before market close.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

Thursday 18 October 2012

Morning Bells (18 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Some people think that BLACK color as sentimentally bad but they forget to know about – every black board makes bright future.

Y’day market ended on a flat note. The start was encouraging as overnight rally in global market but today market was choppy. The only positive thing was that Nifty defended 5630 Mark and now above 5650. So today I have nothing much to say except we are in consolidation phase as last time when global market was corrected we didn’t that much, so now when global market is making new high we are behind a bit.

RIL share was under pressure, as we already know that gas production in KG-D6 fields has been falling, according to reports and for new investment RIL has submitted a gas price formula and said the price needs to be linked to international crude prices. There are reports that finalization of the decision is pending due to the contractor’s (RIL, BP and Niko) refusal to allow audit by CAG. (Reports IIFL.com)

In another news Beverage maker Diageo is in talks to buy ~20% stake in Vijay Mallya-owned United Spirits, and probably can pay a premium to the market price.

IRB shares tanked after IAC allegation, - With reference to the new article appeared in the leading news papers web edition on October 17, 2012, with title "IRB Infra tanks on allegation from IAC activist". After a sharp fall IRB has clarified to BSE that : Ideal Power Ltd or Ideal Energy Projects Ltd has never been part of IRB Group. – Source IIFL.com
On global front Moody’s has retained Spain’s investment grade debt rating but the outlook is negative. Agency has confirmed the Spain's Baa3 government bond rating and assigned a negative outlook to the rating.

Today market will eagerly await China’s third-quarter gross domestic product no.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Nothing new at the moment, market seem under consolidation and cautious ahead of China GDP Nos. Nifty defended 5630 level which is good new and its also good that it closed above 5650 Mark, next big support exist at 5585. On long side 5735 has strong resistance, so till market hover in this range it’s a No Trade Zone. One can make only Intraday position either side.

Today all eyes will be on China GDP, EU event on 18th while ITC and Tata Consultancy Services will announce results on Friday.

NIFTY
FII once again made long in index futures, bought 197Cr. If you would have remembered the term “Football” & Passing the ball, market is still acting to that way only and we are in narrow range since past 4-5 sessions.

Now 5800CE has highest OI of 1.17Cr. and today it added more than 16 lac contracts at premium of 9 while 5500 PE has highest OI of 85 lacs with fresh addition of 20 lacs at premium of 6-7, such a huge addition giving sense that next few session mean expiry week will be difficult for bulls to manage so if 5630 taken out in a decisive way Nifty may test below 5600 mark where it will find support at 5585. So its No trade zone, sitting on cash is always good, just watch out for breakout of any support or resistance will only give clear indication.

India Vix lost 2.5%  and closed to 15.17 and Nifty PCR is 0.87.

Resistance comes to 5685 - 5709 – 5735 and Supports comes to 5634 – 5607 - 5584.

Trend remain bearish till 5725 is not taken out, buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5725 levels, and then Nifty may retest 5800.

Opening seems slightly positive as global market closed with higher gains. Make position only on intraday basis.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Cement Sector
May see some pressure due royalty.

Realty Sector -
Comes under rate sensitive field and will see some pressure. Select stock can perform better with support of Nifty.

Steel Sector

Steel seems under pressure ahead of GDP no.s from China and global pressure for the sector.

Tata Steel – Has broken out its support level and can test 400 mark in coming sessions.

Power Sector
For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Most of expert expecting that the RBI may cut the CRR by 25bps but will this hope really help to Oct. series is the million dollar question.

IT Sector
Heavyweight may see some pressure ahead of US Prez election as fight seems very close.

Auto Sector
TM – As suggested it may find support near 260 and then 2555-256, breakout of 255 will lead stock to below 240 level.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DB Realty - @79 for TG 110 SL 74 (TG Achieved, call closed)

Deccan Chronicle Holdings & DCB - suggested to exit, keep eye on both stock, once Nifty will settle from its under pressure behaviour both will shine. If you are still holding then no prob, keep it for Mid term bet.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Today’s MG Mantra
Its No Trading Zone, watch for breakout of either side else play only Intraday and close positions before market close.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

Wednesday 17 October 2012

Morning Bells (17 Oct 12)



Good Morning Friends.

Instead of repeated errors you love yourself most, then why you hatred to someone just for a single mistake. Strange but true!

Markets erased its winning streak on Tuesday and ended almost near day's low and fell down instead of strong global cues. Market witnessed some heavy selling in Realty, Metals, Capital Goods and Power stocks, the only saviours were select FMCG, IT & Banks. Pressure increased due to profit booking in broader indices.

DLF, M&M, ACC, Tata Steel, Reliance Infra, Hindalco, Tata Motors were among the major losers while Hero Motocorp, Cairn, Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were among the major gainer.

RIL was another reason for fall, RIL gave up all its gain in late trade instead of expected quarterly result. Even posted good result by India's third largest private sector lender Axis Bank on Monday (reported 22% YoY rise in its second quarter) was also unable to keep the momentum up of both Nifty and Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty seems in downtrend and may go below 11000.

Well, today market will eye on HCL which will announce quarterly result today. The India's fourth largest software services exporter is expected to report 3-5% sequential growth in volumes, however margins will be under pressure due to wage hikes.

On world’s second largest economy China - Retail level inflation in China increased by 1.9% last month, China’s inflation was close to the slowest pace in two years in September.

Thursday will be a noticeable event as China’s third-quarter gross domestic product will be released.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Nothing much to say about market as participant started profit booking. We are just above strong support for Nifty which is 5630 and to watch it today, if broken then next big support comes to 5585 and if this is broken then we will see a big selling pressure and market can witness a big fall. On long side 5728 has strong resistance, so till market hover in this range it’s a No Trade Zone. One can make only Intraday position either side.

All eyes will also be on EU event on 18th while ITC and Tata Consultancy Services will announce results on Friday.

NIFTY
Seems FII is now doing lot of day trading. On previous day they had made longs and y’day they booked profit in their longs. Even they are doing some intraday trade. And y’day they have shorted the index.

Huge position added to 5700CE (18 lacs) & to 5800CE (11.5 Lacs) on short side 3.89 lacs position added to 5600PE and 4.63 lac to 5600PE.             5800CE have crossed OI above 1 Crore, while down side 5600PE has highest OI of 80 Lacs, so now on broad based range seems 5600-5800 but data sensing something different, so just watch out for breakout of any support or resistance will only give clear indication.

India Vix lost 2.2%  and closed to 15.57 and Nifty PCR is 0.84.

Resistance comes to 5674 - 5709 – 5728 and Supports comes to 5630 – 5615 - 5585.

Trend remain bearish till 5728 is not taken out, buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5728 levels, and then Nifty may retest 5800.

Opening seems slightly positive as global market closed with higher gains. Make position only on intraday basis.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Cement Sector
Brokerage CLSA has upgraded the cement sector to overweight.

Realty Sector -
Comes under rate sensitive field and will see some pressure. Select stock can perform better with support of Nifty.

Steel Sector

Steel seems under pressure ahead of GDP no.s from China and global pressure for the sector.

Tata Steel – Has broken out its support level and can test 400 mark in coming sessions.

Power SectorSlow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Most of expert expectating that the RBI may cut the CRR by 25bps but will this hope really help to Oct. series is the million dollar question.

IT Sector
IT rebound y’day and today all eye will be on HCL

Auto Sector
TM - Shares of Tata Motors declined after the company reported on Monday that Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales had dropped 4.3% to 26,461 units last month which missed analyst estimates of 30,000 units.

OPEN CALLS
(Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength)

DB Realty - @79 for TG 110 SL 74 (Hitting upper circuit everyday)

Deccan Chronicle Holdings & DCB - suggested to exit y’day, keep eye on both stock, once Nifty will settle from its under pressure behaviour both will shine. If you are still holding then no prob, keep it for Mid term bet.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Today’s MG Mantra
Its No Trading Zone, watchout for breakout of either side else play only Intraday and close positions before market close.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.