Good Morning Friends.
Thought of
the day – Miss anything for your best life but don’t miss best life for
anything.
So we are into expiry week, a year back I was an
expiry expert and was making good money but since I turned to swing trading
that thrill went out. Also when brokers come tricky your position stated making
loss due to false panic signals. Well I strongly recommend that if you are not
sure always stay away from market in expiry week (or make only few low value
bets only) because this is true that in the expiry week either you are hero or
zero.
Right now market and specially FIIs turning
cautious ahead of state election which will give you a small picture of
possibility for Gen. Election in May 2014 (A probability).
Well, The Indian equity market ended off day’s low on Friday with the
NSE Nifty just managing to close above the 6000 mark. The benchmark indices
which remained under constant pressure throughout the day saw a sudden bounce
back amid late buying in the index heavyweights like L&T, Tata Steel, ONGC
and Cairn India.
The sugar companies continued to remain in the limelight on hopes that
government committee may decide to announce financial assistance for struggling
sugar mills as well as an increase in import duties on raw sugar to halt
cheaper imports and strengthen domestic prices.
GLOBAL
FRONT – EMs V/S INDIA
On global front, the development is a bit
disappointing for our country, The sweeping reforms in China along with
political uncertainty in India will impact the FII flows into India as
re-rating of China would attract more incremental flows into that country.
Also developed economies, especially Europe, are attracting lot of
inflows and are on top of the radar of the global fund managers. Result
reflected in Sebi’s FII flow data, some USD 633 million has flown into China
last week while on a four week basis India has seen outflows of some USD 344
million.
US Index -
US index is making new record every week and its not showing any kind
of weakness right now. Historically Dec. always seems a strong month for US
economy.
Fed Tapering –
If we look to this statement then sentiment to remain subdued till
March 14.
Investors are skeptical over the prospects for a
December tapering of stimulus, preferring to focus on March as the starting
point for a reduction in the flow of Treasuries and mortgage bonds bought by
the Fed, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak &
Co.
But for US Santa Claus
rally is on card.
MARKET OUTLOOK –
Ahead of State Assembly result which is due on Dec. 8 I do not see longs
rollover, we all also know very well that during the expiry week fundamentals
normally don’t works and are ignored by F&O dynamics.
So if you remember my old statement (later I got some confusion for a
week’s time but now again seems I should stick to my old view) Nov. expiry seems
below Oct’s high and FII outflow trend to continue till next 2-3 weeks starting
beginning Dec. expiry.
So most probably FII flow to remain subdued as well as we may see some
profit bookings by FIIs fund managers in Dec. to give a fresh start around
Santa claus rally or say new year bash.
So probably no strong efforts seem for upmove and giving picture of
range bound sessions ahead for few sessions.
Be cautious with 5970 & 5935, breaking of 5970 will wash out of
bulls hopes while 5935 will intensify offloading and Nifty can test next stop
5755/5600 while on upside 6230 will again act as strong resistance.
I strongly believe (for high risk takers) that its time to sell OTM CEs
and PEs, profit will be less but could be a sure bet. Like we can sell 62CE and
59PE.
OPENING – Can
be uncertain mean flat and then market will look for cues to move further.
MG’s Nifty
trading range –
R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350
S – 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5950 for
Bears and 6350 for Bulls)
ECONOMIC
EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –
03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS
08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result
OI Activity –
STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see
some good moves either side)
If market supports then Telecom and OMCs are good
bet. Also from Metal sectors TS is one I would like to play.
FRL –
Future Retail was down nearly 7% to Rs73.5 after report said that
National Stock Exchange (NSE) decided to remove the stock from future and
options (F&O) contract from January 31, 2014 onwards.
MBC PL –
Oct PL
= -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000
Open Call –
