Thursday 24 October 2013

Morning Bells (25 Oct 13)



Good Morning Friends.

In memory of Manna Da – Jinhone Sajaye Yahan Mele… Sukh Dukh Sang Sagn Jhele… Wahi Chunkar Khamoshi, Yu Chale Jaye Akele Kahan.

The BSE Sensex surged past the 21,000 mark for the first time in three year on Thursday ahead of the Reserve Bank policy meet scheduled to be held on October 29. However, the gains were short-lived as traders preferred to book some profits after higher levels.

Sensex hit the 21k milestone on the back of strong inflows from foreign investors throughout the month. Foreign funds have bought US$1.7bn in Indian equities so far this month, taking their total purchases for the year to US$15.35bn.

The decline was led by selling pressure in the IT, Telecom, Power and the Realty stocks.

MARKET OUTLOOK –
We discussed it throughout the week, Nifty under consolidation mode and profit booking will come once Nifty will move above 6230 or would be near 6300, y’day Nifty seen heavy profit booking and lost all gains and finally closed in RED. Here again I would like to remind you 6020 & 5980 will find good support in this series (in case of a fall)

Well we have only 5 sessions left and it would be highly volatile and momentum can remain on downside because now market is expecting weak Q2 in these 5 session, only hope (gamble) in banking segment can limited downside while most of players expecting another rate hike. It may be, but I guess in the current situation RBI can give a pass for next meet because still Govt. has to take decision on various price hike and taxation.

Well, about momentum, weak Q2 can push market down a bit, I am hoping it to flirt with 6100 level or in any immediate worst situation around 6000 level (6020-5980) where Nifty can settle but most probably it would be cooled off or bounce from 6100. Nov. series seems good as longs build up seen, so these downside can be utilize as buying opportunity with strict SL 5980.

Again I would suggest stay away from banking segment specially from PSU, a good correction in banking segment is on card which can take place any moment around/after RBI policy.

MG’s Nifty trading range –
R – 6240 – 6290 - 6350
S – 6160 - 6120 – 6070- 6020 - 5980

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –
25 Oct – Result – Adani Ports, Adani Power, Gail, ICICI, IDBI, IOB, ITC
26 Oct – Result – HUL, JSW Energy,
28 Oct – Result – Dabur, JSW, Maruti, VIP
29 Oct – Result – JSW Steel, Sriram Transport, Tata Comm, Welspun Corp

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

MBC PL –
Oct PL = -2000 + 600 (Nifty PE gain) = -1600

Open Call –
Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL Hold/0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

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Wednesday 23 October 2013

Morning Bells (23 Oct 13)



Good Morning Friends.

If you tell the truth, it becomes a part of your past, but if you lie it becomes part of your future. So choice is yours.

So once again I am enjoying this range, as discussed 6230-40 would act as resistance and Nifty is finding hard to cross it, secondly momentum is on buying side (specially in beaten down stocks, small to mid caps) keeping Nifty alive. So here I would again suggest trade with our suggested range and make good money.

Some positive buying is seen is power, PSU, IT, Teck and capital goods sectors, while consumer durables, auto, oil & gas and healthcare sectors are losing on BSE.

Domestic Front –
In a good step, to allow investors make informed decisions, SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) on Monday asked companies and other entities acquiring substantial shares in listed companies to make additional disclosures regarding pledging of scrips.

RBI Policy view –
An industry poll conducted by RBS India today said majority participants are expecting RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to hike the key policy rates by at least 0.25 percent next week when he unveils the second quarter review of Monetary Policy 2013-14.

"More than 55 percent of the respondents are expecting a 25 bps hike in the repo rate in this policy cycle, and a similar hike in the reverse repo rate as well," RBS India said in a pre-policy survey. The RBS client survey covered 150 local market participants, including corporate clients, banks, insurance companies and mutual funds among others and 56 percent of the responses came in from corporate clientele and rest from financial institutions.

So once again banking stock will be in limelight next week where we may see some pressure in banking and rate sensitive stocks on believe of above statement.

MARKET OUTLOOK –
Today Nifty was also in consolidation mode and I hope that its preparing ground to move up further. After breaching 6230 it seems to make a new high, though I am a bit cautious around 6300 or say above 6230. 6020 & 5980 will find good support in this series (in case of a fall)

Why I was bullish and still think there is steam left because till now (even today Wipro, Cairn & Yes Bank) Q2 earnings so far have been good and FII inflow is intact i.e. FII still buying, interestingly what they had sold in Aug-Sept now they are buying.

Yes but here onward it would be difficult to climb in one go, reason is simple as Nifty is inching towards higher levels profit booking as well as fear for a correction is in mind of investors so they are now not buying with free hands, they are approaching cautious move.

MG’s Nifty trading range –
R – 6240 – 6290 - 6350
S – 6160 - 6120 – 6070- 6020 - 5980

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –
23 Oct – Result – ACC, Ambuja Cement, Dish TV, Hero Moto, Power Grid
24 Oct – Result – Arvind, Idea, Kotak Mahindra
25 Oct – Result – Adani Ports, Adani Power, Gail, ICICI, IDBI, IOB, ITC
26 Oct – Result – HUL, JSW Energy,
28 Oct – Result – Dabur, JSW, Maruti, VIP
29 Oct – Result – JSW Steel, Sriram Transport, Tata Comm, Welspun Corp

OI Activity –
OI Gainer - Adani Ports (38%), Sun TV (24%), India Bulls Real Estate (21%), Dabur (19%) and Exide Industries (19%)
OI Loser - Opto Circuits (-14%), Punj Lloyd (-7%), Asian Paints (-7%) and Bank of India (-7%)

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

IBR –
Indiabulls Real Estate gained 6.29% on BSE on the news that the company has declared a second Interim dividend of Re. 1 per equity share (on the face value of Rs. 2 per share) for the financial year 2013-14.

Tata Steel –
Tata Steel has bagged a new contract to supply Britain's Network Rail with more than 95% of its rails for at least five years, according to reports.

Media reports said that the company could supply more than 1 million tonnes of rail under the contract.
The company's Scunthorpe plant, which produces steel for construction and infrastructure, is the current supplier to Network Rail.

Wipro –
Ltd has posted results for the second quarter ended 30th September, 2013. The net profit for the quarter stood at Rs19.32bn. Its net sales for Q2 stands at Rs109.90bn.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 95280 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 to Rs. 113319 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2013.

Cairn India –
Has posted results for the second quarter ended 30th September, 2013. The net profit for the quarter stood at Rs33.80bn. While, net sales for Q2 stood at Rs46.50bn.Its Q2 forex gain was at Rs4.29bn.

The company announced that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on October 22, 2013,  has declared an Interim Dividend of INR 6/- per Equity Share for the financial year 2013-14. The Interim Dividend will be paid to shareholders on or before November 12, 2013.

Hero Moto –
Q2 Nos. are today, analysts expect an unimpressive performance during the quarter, growth will be marginal given the slowdown in the sector.

MBC PL –
Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Open Call –
Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL Hold/0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

Regarding MBC calls –
I know some of you have made some loss on past 2-3 calls, here I would like to say that mostly I do swing trade so even if 3-4 calls hit SL need not to worry because 1 or 2 jackpot calls will recover all your losses and again you will be in handsome profit. But you just need to follow MBC calls because we don’t know in which bag jackpot is. Secondly you also need patience else we may burn fingers.

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Tuesday 22 October 2013

Morning Bells (22 Oct 13)



Good Morning Friends.

Tow rules for success – Never tell everything, you know and never tell you know everything.

So finally day has come for which market was waiting since long, Nifty closes above 6200 for 1st time since November 10, 2010. So it’s good news that Nifty made year’s high but there’s flaw (my opinion) and that is – instead of strong set of quarterly numbers from index heavyweight like Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and index constituent Asian Paints it closes marginally up, so think if any heavyweight disappoint then where Nifty will go.

Overall nothing is new to comment here, now everyone is waiting patiently where Nifty will go from here. I am maintaining S/R 6230-6300 and 6125.

MARKET OUTLOOK –
As already discussed, strong buying is seen and Nifty is set to move up further, after breaching 6230 it seems to make a new high, though I am a bit cautious around 6300 or say above 6230. 6020 & 5980 will find good support in this series (in case of a fall)

Consolidation also seen y’day after a day of sharp rally,

This is also true market may remain volatile this week as many heavyweights will announce their Q2 nos. this week.
MG’s Nifty trading range –
R – 6230 - 6300
S – 6125 - 6020 – 5980

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –
22 Oct – Result – Cairn India, IBR, Wipro, Yes Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Wipro –
Wipro , the country's third largest software services exporter, will announce its second quarter results today. According to many analysts on an average expect revenues to grow 13.2 percent sequentially to Rs 10,115 crore in the quarter gone by. Dollar revenues are expected to increase 2.8 percent to USD 1,634 million during September quarter from USD 1,588.3 million in June quarter.
MBC PL –
Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Open Call –
Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL Hold/0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

Regarding MBC calls –
I know some of you have made some loss on past 2-3 calls, here I would like to say that mostly I do swing trade so even if 3-4 calls hit SL need not to worry because 1 or 2 jackpot calls will recover all your losses and again you will be in handsome profit. But you just need to follow MBC calls because we don’t know in which bag jackpot is. Secondly you also need patience else we may burn fingers.

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Monday 21 October 2013

Morning Bells (21 Oct 13)



Good Morning Friends.

God’s guidance is like a small lamp in a dark forest, it doesn’t show everything at once… but it gives enough light for next step to be safe.

I don’t how many of you have thought on above lines, its really relates to stock market. Tech indicators are like that only which gives a portion of light about further step we just need to see it before it turn into morning light.

Well, it was an incredible trading session on Friday and hit Sept high. After taking a breather in the past two trading sessions, the Nifty index hit 6200 mark for the first time since May 20, 2013 mainly led by the banking, metal, capital goods, realty, FMCG and the oil and gas stocks.

Sentiment got a boost as the rupee extended its gains to the highest in more than two months breaching the psychological 61 per dollar mark. The Indian unit rallied to a high of 60.92 against the US dollar in late morning trade on persistent selling of the dollar.

In an important development, The Reserve Bank clarified that oil marketing companies’ swap window remains operational. Any tapering of the window, as and when it occurs, will be done in a calibrated manner.

Sentiment was also bolstered after Life insurance Corp of India Chairman SK Roy told to media that it will invest Rs 400 billion in domestic equities in fiscal 2014.
Above all you can say its only strong FII inflow which lifted market, Foreign institutional investors have bought more than Rs 4,400 crore worth of equity shares in cash market this week, including Rs 1,753 crore (provisional figure) bought on Friday. In October so far, they are the net buyers with more than Rs 9,000 crore of shares.
Global Booster -
US lawmakers came to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoided a potential default coupled with encouraging Jul-Sep growth from china.

China's economy grew 7.8% in the third quarter, its fastest pace this year and in line with expectations.

MARKET OUTLOOK –
Nifty premium is reduced marginally from 25.15 to 21.1, 6000PE (ATM) short got averaged while 6300CE & 6400CE seen addition clearly giving signal to my suggested level of 6020 & 5980 will find good support in this series (in case of a fall) while CE addition is suggesting Nifty can move up from here in between we may see some movement towards 6100 mean can give you feeling that we are moving towards it but it will break of close below that will be decided by key earnings in remaining 2 weeks and important policy announcement.

So overall sentiment is set to move up except today market to see reaction on L&T Q2 nos. which was announced after market hours on Friday.

This is also true market may remain volatile this week as many heavyweight will announce their Q2 nos. this week.
MG’s Nifty trading range –
R – 6094 – 6140/45 – 6230
S – 6020 – 5980 - 5840 – 5900- 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516
Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 (+125) and 4900-5600

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –
21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Coffee, ZEEL
22 Oct – Result – Cairn India, IBR, Wipro, Yes Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

OI Activity –
OI increased in our tracking stocks - AP (11%), SesaSter (10%), BPCL (10%), Adani Ports (10%)

Wipro
Wirpo to announce its Q2 nos this week, as seen in other Tier 1 IT players, it is expected that Wipro will also come out with strong numbers on both the revenue and margin front.

Titan (Result 31 Oct) –
Titan is expected to move up from here. Here’s report for that –

The government has reduced the import tariff value of gold and silver to $418 per 10 gram and $699 per kg, respectively, according to reports.

Report said that the  tariff value, stood at $436 per 10 grams for gold and $702 per kg for silver during the last fortnight.
Trading tips –
As weekly chart one can place SL 237.4 for TG 248.5 / 254 / 260

BhartiAirtel –
Bharti Airtel announced it acquired 100% stake in Wireless Business Services (WBSPL), a company founded by US chipmaker Qualcomm. The company had acquired a 49% stake in WBSPL in May 2012 for US$165mn. The stock rose by 2% to close at Rs355.

Instead of having clue we missed the opportunity due to weakness in 2 sessions.

Zeel –
Today ZEEL will announce its Q2 nos, analysts expect 9 percent growth year-on-year (down 9 percent sequentially) in its net profit of Rs 205 crore.
Total income is likely to increase 10 percent on yearly basis (up 8 percent quarter-on-quarter) to Rs 1,050 crore in September quarter on account of higher sports revenue and monetisation of DAS phase I & II.
RIL & BP –
Global oil company BP and its Indian partner Reliance Industries plan to invest $8-10 bn by 2016/17 in further development of the D6 gas block, Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily reportedly said.

Report said that the natural gas output from the block, has declined to 14 million cubic metres per day (mmscmd) from 60 mmscmd at the end of 2010.

Infra –
In all five companies have responded to the bids invited by the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) from companies to construct the 4.25 km long Sewri-Worli elevated corridor which will provide two lanes each for up and down traffic.

The companies responding to the bids are Gammon India Ltd., Hindustan Construction Company Ltd., Larsen & Tubro Ltd., N.C.C. Limited and Simplex Infrastructure Ltd.

The contract to construct the Sewri-Worli elevated corridor (East-West Connector) will be awarded once the Bid Evaluation process is completed.

The elevated corridor is expected to be ready within 48 months from the award of work.
NOTE – If you are really looking for a jackpot, keep track for this development and on right time we will initiate calls if got info on right time.

IT Sector –
Government IT spending in India will reach $6.4 bn US Dollars (USD) in 2013, a 7 percent increase over 2012, according to Gartner, Inc.

This forecast includes spending by government (government is composed of state and regional government and central government agencies.) on internal IT (including personnel), hardware, software, external IT services and telecommunications.

MBC PL –
Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Open Call –
Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL Hold/0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

Cairn 330CE @5.2 SL 4 TG 9+ (Call closed around 5.6 on Friday and will reinitiate on Monday)

Regarding MBC calls –
I know some of you have made some loss on past 2-3 calls, here I would like to say that mostly I do swing trade so even if 3-4 calls hit SL need not to worry because 1 or 2 jackpot calls will recover all your losses and again you will be in handsome profit. But you just need to follow MBC calls because we don’t know in which bag jackpot is. Secondly you also need patience else we may burn fingers.

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