Morning Bells (21 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Time never stops for anyone, then why do we always wait for the right time? No time is wrong to do the right things.

Two things are very clear here what I had stated more in advance, first, global market would react sharply to Fed if it disappoint, and secondly after 100+ bounce last week from 5700 to 5800, clearly informed to exit longs in this rally else you would stuck. Both were on right spot.

I am also surprised by repeated demand of suggestion most of time when market falls drastically, I just want to say, don’t impatience, try to see where market is going on, else you will be in deep loss one day.

So once again nothing much is here to say as it was biggest fall of 2013, financial markets triggered by comments from the Federal Reserve overnight. The Fed said it would start scaling back its stimulus measures later this year if the economy is strong enough. There was nothing new in this statement but the huge built up of leveraged positions is what led to the cascading fall across asset classes.

The fall could be around 120 points but it was boosted by in later part by a sharp depreciation in the Indian currency against the dollar. The rupee hit an all-time low of 59.97 per dollar in the spot market while it struck 60.17 in the futures segment.

Still don’t think everything would be OK, Rupee is on RADAR with a simple reason, dollar has been strengthening against a basket of countries with high current account deficits on improving US economic data. With India having the second largest current account deficit in the world, in absolute terms, it faces the risk of further depreciation

Gainers –

Losers -

Sectoral –

The realty index was the top loser in trade today, down 5.1%. Hopes of an interest rate cut next month were dashed with no respite in the rupee weakening. Other major laggards were metals, banks, power and the oil and gas, which saw cuts of almost 3% each.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

This week is also important as near term direction will be determined by the Iranian elections.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4% and ended at 19.19 against previous close of 18.29.

FNO PCR was 0.83 against previous close 0.89.

Indian Rupee – Rupee ended all time low and was down by 1.14 Rs. and was trading at 59.85 against its previous close of 58.71.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1604.70 down 24.23 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Finally Nifty breached its strong support 5685, and now heading towards 5630, if it doesn’t hold on closing basis then we may see 5500 or precisely 5477 around level sooner or later. There onward 5200 is also on card.

Opening – Again seems down and under pressure because all global market ended deep RED and now Rupee will put pressure further on FII.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM finding support around 289, and have good support at 278-281 zone. So probably if Nifty goes range bound to stable, TM would be on ride.

Companies declares dividend -

Despite choppy and volatile stock markets, shareholders of the 30 Sensex stocks are in for over Rs. 360 billion bonanza in terms of dividend payouts by these companies, according to a media report.

While promoters of these top blue-chip companies will get around Rs. 155 billion as their share in this dividend bonanza, the non-promoters, including retail investors and institutions, would also receive around Rs. 200 billion, the report added.

Among the companies include Dena Bank, Bank of India, Union Bank, NIIT Technologies, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti, Adani, DLF and Torrent that are opting to distribute a higher proportion of profits to shareholders rather than use the same in their businesses.

Over 70 stocks hit all time low -

It would be surprised but its true, our leaders are talking about good growth and corruption is at its high. They also claims everything is fine and these volatility is temporary but think about investors who have invested in below listed companies, they have hit all time low and now will take several year to come above the buy price or may be they can shut their shops.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-edge/carnagedalal-st-over-70-stocks-hit-all-time-low_902345.html#toptag

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HDFC 860CE – @12 TG 20+ Today’s updated SL 5 after first hour trade (Max 2 lots)

(Booked loss @2)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

June 2013 = -8500-5000 = -13,500

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)

June 2013 = +9,900 – 8500 = +1400

Today’s MG Mantra –

Better to sit on cash, or enter for small trade only and that too for intraday.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (20 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends,

Today there's nothing special as global market is eagerly awaiting Fed outcome.

I have already stated in y'day's MB, if Fed disappoint then global market will react on it sharply specially markets which are more concerns with US i.e. EU zone.

Its impact on India will be a bit lighter because when all global market were climbing we were falling and now corrected a lot.

So keep physiological level 5750 and then 5685, also max 1-1.5bn FII outflow, we are in a trading range of 5700-5950.

So lets see today morning whats in fate.

Morning Bells (19 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Any great relationship is based on 2 important things – First is to find out the similarities & Second to respect the difference.

Today nothing much is there to write as all eye is on Fed outcome, so today’s first half is dedicated to Fed.

The benchmark indices took a breather Y’day after rallying for two consecutive trading sessions. The session was choppy with indices changing direction multiple times.

The rupee continued to haunt sentiment while market participants preferred to take some money of the table ahead of the US Federal Reserve meet. Investors are hoping the meet provides some signs on how long the Federal Reserve will continue with its bond purchase program.

The telecom sector was in focus today. Vodafone India has reduced data charges by up to 80% in three circles. The new cheaper rates will be rolled out nationally in a phased manner. The telecom operator reduced 2G data charges to two paisa per 10 KB from 10 paisa per 10 KB in Karnataka, UP West, and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh circles.

Shares of peer Reliance Communications zoomed over 11% on national roaming norms.

Gainers –

Tata Steel, Infosys, Sesa Goa, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Power, ACC and Coal India were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -

Losers pack led by Ranbaxy, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Punjab National Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, ONGC, GAIL India, L&T, IDFC and NMDC  were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Banking, which has an about 25% weightage on the Nifty, led the decline. Stocks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, SBI and ICICI Bank lost out . The other major laggards were capital goods, power, and oil and gas stocks.

Domestic Front –

FIPB clears 16 FDI Proposals -

According to reports, the Government has approved 16 projects envisaging foreign investment worth Rs 16.47bn.

The board, headed by Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram, also cleared the Rs 9.62bn proposal of Vijay Television for acquisition by foreign promoters.

The government also approved Korea Western Power Co’s proposal to invest in an Indian company to the tune of Rs 270 crore.

Reports stated that proposals which were cleared by the FIPB include that of ABG Container handling, Belgium-based Celio International and pharma firms Mylan Laboratories and Terumo Mauritius Holding Ltd.

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now focus shifted to Fed and participant eagerly waiting for outcome. If it goes positive then global market will see a cheer, if not then world market will react sharply. Regarding Indian market I feel we have already corrected much in first 2 weeks of this series so we have little impact, also discussed around 1-1.5bn money is more there which can be taken out by FII and its impact wouldn’t be more than 100-150 points.

This week is also important as near term direction will be determined by the Iranian elections.

Point to remember here - FIIs, which have been the driving force behind the market, will turn cautious after the dramatic fall in the Indian rupee. Near-term picture for the market looks bearish and uncertain. "There could be some corrective rallies but FIIs would be very cautious.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 0.6% and ended at 18.29 against previous close of 18.18. The last time the index surged this level was in June, 2012.

FNO PCR was 0.83 against previous close 0.89.

Indian Rupee – Rupee ended all time low and was down by 91 paisa and was trading at 58.78 against its previous close of 57.87.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1651.12 up 12.08 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Many now believes that 5750 & 5700 would act as strong support for the entire series and for upside as told repeatedly Nifty need to close above 5940, i.e. now this level would act as stiff resistance. So on broad basis Nifty seems in the range of 5700-5750-5940 unless there’s no further shocking news from Fed or any other global market.

Still I am cautious on market and will take only intraday to 1-2 session positions only.

Opening – As per Fed outcome but wouldn’t be a big gap up or down.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

The Tata Motors Group global wholesales in May 2013, including Jaguar Land Rover, were 81,783 nos. Cumulative wholesales for the fiscal were 163,024 nos.

Global wholesales of all commercial vehicles - Tata, Tata Daewoo and the Tata Hispano Carrocera range - were 38,641 nos. Cumulative commercial vehicles wholesales for the fiscal were 78,610 nos.

Still it need to cross 306 to make a decisive move further, its all depend now on RBI policy outcome.

Apollo Tyre -

AT was about to come up of shock of 2 days fall of almost 30% and stock was showing some sign of relief was there, stock was up and all of sudden discussion started about Moody’s review of Cooper tire and it turned 1.5% RED from 2% green.

Moody's Investors Service placed the ratings Cooper Tire & Rubber Company's ("Cooper Tire"), including its B1 Corporate Family and B1-PD Probability of Default ratings under review for possible downgrade following the announcement that Apollo Tyres Ltd. ("Apollo Tyres") and Cooper Tire executed a definitive merger agreement under which a wholly-owned subsidiary of Apollo Tyre will acquire Cooper Tire in an all-cash transaction.

The transaction, representing a 40% premium to Cooper's 30-day volume-weighted average price, is valued at approximately $2.5 billion and is anticipated to close by the end of this year.

So further downside is not ruled out, stock may settle around 58-60 levels if today it continue to fall else its heading above 65 once again.

HUL -

As the countdown to Hindustan Unilever open offer nears, the FMCG major is pulling out all stops to ensure its open offer is a success. Parent Unilever plans to increase its holding in the Indian arm to 75% from 52.48% via a voluntary open offer. The tender period will start June 21 on July 4.

However, reports suggest that Life Insurance Corporation and Aberdeen Asset Management have opted to sit out of this open offer citing a weak share price.

Given the limited upside, funds are not to enthusiastic on tendering their shares at HUL's open offer price of Rs. 600 per share. The stock is currently trading at Rs. 595 per share.

Also, investors looking to tender in the open offer will lose out on long-term capital gains, even if held for over a year, as the tax-free status applies only to shares bought and sold over the stock exchange. As per current tax norms, the gains will be taxed at 10% percent without indexation or 20% after indexation.

Media Segment –

The Indian Broadcasting Foundation has agreed to implement the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's order on restricting TV advertisements to 12 minutes per hour from the prevailing 15-20 minutes. Depending on genre, this will lead to a reduction in advertising inventory by 20-40% and would culminate into an increase in ad rates.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HDFC 860CE – @12 TG 20+ Today’s updated SL 5 after first hour trade (Max 2 lots)

Stock is testing our patience repeatedly, I am still bullish that stock may see 860+ levels in this series unless there’s no panic selling in market.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

June 2013 = -8500

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)

June 2013 = +9,900 – 8500 = +1400

(Booked loss at 1.5 = -6500, Union Bank – 230CE @4.75 TG 7+ SL 2 (Max 2 lots)

(Booked loss at 3.5 = -2000, TS 310CE – @5.5 TG 10+ SL 288 in Cash (Max 1 lots)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Stay away from options right now, range bound and changing in multiple direction can wash out premiums.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (18 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life is not qualified by Fluent English, Branded Clothes or Rich LifeStyle, it is measured by the number of faces that smile when they hear your name.

Finally, Reserve Bank decided to keep key interest rates unchanged. RBI Governor D Subbarao stated that only a durable fall in inflation will open the space for policy easing.

RBI had no choice but to maintain status quo on account of the 9% depreciation in the rupee since the beginning of May. India has the second largest current account deficit in the world in absolute terms and faces the risk of further depreciation of its currency. It decided to view the impact of the fall in inflation and fallout of the government's steps to reign in CAD. In any case, significant monetary transmission of the cumulative 75 basis point cut in 2013 are yet to take place. Going forward, RBI’s focus will be to reduce the liquidity deficit, which stands at over Rs. 1 lakh crore.

Another dampener was the disappointing trade data. The trade deficit widened to $20.1bn in May as against $16.9bn the same period last year. Exports declined 1.1% to $24.51bn in May after four months of marginal growth. On the other hand, imports increased 7% to $44.65bn with bullion imports rising 89.7% to $8.3bn.

However, positive cues from Europe post lunch boosted sentiment and helped the benchmark indices end in the green.

Gainers –

BHEL, M&M, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Auto, Reliance Infrastructure, Axis Bank, Maruti, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharmaceutical and SBI were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -

Ranbaxy, Hindalco, GAIL, NTPC, Sesa Goa, Jindal Steel, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Power Grid, NMDC and DLF were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Auto, capital goods, consumer durables, oil and gas, FMCG, healthCare and power gained.

Domestic Front –

Poll-Toll begins : PM Inducts 8 new faces

Eight new faces inducted into the Union Council of Ministers.

Sisram Ola, along with Girija Vyas and KS Rao, have been inducted as Cabinet Ministers.

May 13 Trade deficit at 7 month high –

The trade deficit for the month of May widened to $20.1 bn as against $17.8 bn in April.

While import for April-May stood at $86.6 bn.

While May exports stands at $24.51bn.

May imports were reported at $44.65 bn, up 7% year-on-year.

Global Front –

Fed Meet –

There are rumour mills are churning reports that US Federal Reserve expects substantial passage of time between the end of bond-buying program and raising short-term interest rates. In this respect, the apex body plans to hold its benchmark lending rate low for a considerable amount of time after it scales down its QE program.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now focus shifted to Fed and participant ignored RBI’s disappointment.  Markets will still remain perplexed regarding the longevity of bond buying program. There were mixed signals during Bernanke's last testimony to the Congress, whereby the central bank seemed to be indecisive on the duration of QE program.

Bernanke once again failing to provide clarity on the monetary policy, we could see gold prices deriving strength and moving higher.

This week is also important as near term direction will be determined by the Iranian elections.

Point to remember here - FIIs, which have been the driving force behind the market, will turn cautious after the dramatic fall in the Indian rupee. Near-term picture for the market looks bearish and uncertain. "There could be some corrective rallies but FIIs would be very cautious.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 18.18 against previous close of 18.35. The last time the index surged this level was in June, 2012.

The volatility index also known as the fear gauge indicator is a measure of the amount by which an underlying index is expected to fluctuate in the near-term.

FNO PCR was 0.89 against previous close 0.87.

Indian Rupee – Rupee was down by 36 paisa and was trading at 57.87 against its previous close of 57.52.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1644.71 up 17.98 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Many now believes that 5750 & 5700 would act as strong support for the entire series and upside as told repeatedly Nifty need to close above 5940, i.e. now this level would act as stiff resistance. So on broad basis Nifty seems in the range of 5700-5750-5940 unless there’s no further shocking news from Fed or any other global market.

Still I am cautious on market and will take only intraday to 1-2 session positions only.

Opening – Again seems flat (10 point +/- can not be considered as gap up or gap down or positive or negative) and market may trade in narrow range till global cues i.e. EU cues.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

The Tata Motors Group global wholesales in May 2013, including Jaguar Land Rover, were 81,783 nos. Cumulative wholesales for the fiscal were 163,024 nos.

Global wholesales of all commercial vehicles - Tata, Tata Daewoo and the Tata Hispano Carrocera range - were 38,641 nos. Cumulative commercial vehicles wholesales for the fiscal were 78,610 nos.

Still it need to cross 306 to make a decisive move further, its all depend now on RBI policy outcome.

L&T -

Larsen & Toubro Ltd will bid for four Indian coast guard contracts worth Rs 40 bn ($695 million), MV Kotwal, president of the company's heavy engineering department reportedly said.

Reports stated that the company also plans to bid for two landing platform docks that will be awarded by the government.

L&T has tried to expand defence manufacturing business and emerged as the lowest bidder for a contract to make army vehicles, report was quoted as saying.

Telecom sector : TRAI favour telecom consumers -

TRAI has reduced ceilings for national roaming calls and SMS and instituted a new regime for providing flexibility to telecom service providers to customise tariffs for national roamers through STVs and Combo Vouchers. TRAI has also mandated two types of free national roaming plans to be provided by all telecom service providers. These changes will come into effect from 1st July 2013.

National roaming service is the facility provided to a subscriber to use his cell-phone to make and receive voice calls and SMS when travelling outside the geographical coverage area of his home network, by using a visited network. In the Indian context, national roaming refers to facilities for making and receiving calls and SMS when the subscriber is travelling in a State which is different from the State of his residence.
The present exercise to review national roaming tariffs was initiated by TRAI earlier this year in the context of decline in costs and the declared intent in the New Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughout the country.

The ceiling tariffs prescribed by TRAI in the year 2007 were Rs. 1.40 per minute for outgoing local calls and Rs.2.40 per minute for outgoing STD calls while on national roaming. These ceilings have been reduced to Re. 1.00 per minute and Re. 1.50 per minute respectively. Similarly, the ceiling tariffs for incoming calls while on national roaming have been reduced from Rs. 1.75 per minute to Re. 0.75 per minute.Tariffs for outgoing SMS while on national roaming which were earlier under forbearance have now been capped: outgoing SMS-local at Re. 1.00 per SMS and outgoing SMS-STD at Rs. 1.50 per SMS. Incoming SMS will remain free of charge.

Media Segment –

The Indian Broadcasting Foundation has agreed to implement the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's order on restricting TV advertisements to 12 minutes per hour from the prevailing 15-20 minutes. Depending on genre, this will lead to a reduction in advertising inventory by 20-40% and would culminate into an increase in ad rates.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HDFC 860CE – @12 TG 20+ Today’s updated SL 5 after first hour trade (Max 2 lots)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

June 2013 = -8500

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)

June 2013 = +9,900 – 8500 = +1400

(Booked loss at 1.5 = -6500, Union Bank – 230CE @4.75 TG 7+ SL 2 (Max 2 lots)

(Booked loss at 3.5 = -2000, TS 310CE – @5.5 TG 10+ SL 288 in Cash (Max 1 lots)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Got breather, now you can feel relax and you would have covered most of losses.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.