Good Morning
Friends.
A subject called
LIFE is a difficult critical exam. Many fail in it trying to copy from others
not realizing that each one has different question paper.
Once again
– it’s a long text, and if you want to trade in market for next few weeks, you
need to read all as market don’t act on single clue, we need to take care of many
things, yes just guess how much text I read on daily basis, this is just an
example, so if you want to win the market, you need to make a habit to read as
much as possible.
Hope you
all would have read the text I had posted in weekend here on blog and also on
FaceBook. For those who missed it, I am including some text fort them.
Its just a
word of wisdom, now start planning to lighten up your port folio, for me I have
already cleared my stocks in Feb series itself as I was repeatedly asking to
all of you to lighten up your port folio from Dec 12 itself. So I am not
holding anything right now except few positions in FNO. Because it was a clear
indication once Nifty reaches above 5900 mark that (a non-stop drive from 4700
to 5900) so there was high chances for profit booking as well as for some retracement.
Well, come
to market - important level which is 5545 (a 200 DMA) broken on Friday, though
fall was not like which normally we see on Friday and somehow Nifty managed to
close above it. Why this level is important because it has strong support as
well as it’s a physiological level too, breach of this level will turn
investors sentiment to bearish and once investor will turn bearish and then we
wont see recovery in near term.
Well, one attempt was there,
and in coming days bears will give more attempts which itself mean we are going
lower and if political uncertainty give it a fire, market may fall like playing
card house.
Regarding
lightening up port folio - I dont believe in the theory that stock will move up
one day OR what if, if market turn up from here - My view is soooooo simple, if
market turn up from here, I will find more opportunity to gain and wont upset
that "Oh! I have sold these stock and now they are moving up" instead
I will say "Its OK, but if it was a free fall then it could gave me
permanent disability and I was completely out of market"
So here I would like to
emphasize that I am not triggering panic button but just want to inform you all
that watch this level closely (please refer technical on Nifty under Nifty Outlook
section).
Yes there's possibility for
some bounce here - 2 reasons - First, its an important level and Bulls will
give attempt to save it, secondly - FII who are on selling counter, now can
give a break time being before start fresh selling. Lastly, its already 200+
points down so now it would need some kind of stay or break.
What it indicates - is that
they will stop selling, but they will also not be part of fresh buying, DII is
already in wait and watch mode, so due to lake of participant market may go
range bound.
So use
bounces to lighten up your position (if you are still holding) or at least go
for hedge i.e. buy PEs of stock which you are holding, specially you need to be
cautious in Mid Caps and in stock which are already moving below its 200DMA and
stock which are currently at 52 week high. (Ignore defensive stock)
A very critical analysis and
text, one need to treat it like a surgeon before moving into market. Most of
time many of you asked “sir what indicates market falling or moving up”,
usually they think that there’s one tool which indicate us all those moves but
its like typical surgery in which you need to take care of many nerves which
are connected to your main object.
So best of
luck to all to make huge money as this volatility can give wonderful
opportunity, yes only for swingers, small risk takers can have patience and
just watch the market else you may burn your fingers. And swinger should also
need to play for bigger risk, small moves will put you into trouble.
WHAT KIND OF BEAR MARKET IT COULD BE / OR WHAT SINGNALING FOR BEAR
SIGN
Just take a look
signals available in market, 33 Nifty stocks are trading below 200 DMA, which
is not good sign.
|
Nifty
Stocks
|
Below 200
DMA
|
|
RELINFRA
|
-32.70%
|
|
NMDC
|
-23.70%
|
|
HINDALCO
|
-22.40%
|
|
TATASTEEL
|
-22.10%
|
|
JPASSOCIAT
|
-20.80%
|
|
HEROMOTOCO
|
-20.60%
|
|
BHEL
|
-20.20%
|
|
SESAGOA
|
-17.30%
|
|
JINDALSTEL
|
-16.40%
|
|
ACC
|
-15.10%
|
|
AMBUJACEM
|
-13.10%
|
|
BANKBARODA
|
-12.30%
|
|
COAL INDIA
|
-11.10%
|
|
GAIL
|
-10.90%
|
|
GRASIM
|
-10.80%
|
|
PNB
|
-10.40%
|
|
RELIANCE
|
-5.00%
|
|
ICICIBANK
|
-3.40%
|
|
LT
|
-9.5
|
Also have a look to stocks which
went below 2008 lows, Here’s link to see, nearly 30% BSE stocks trading
below 2008 lows.
BACK TO HOME -
A combination of domestic and overseas headwinds continues to play
havoc with the markets’ sentiment. The worries of Cyprus haven’t really ebbed
but attention turned to North Korea as it continues to threaten South Korea and
the U.S. The Pentagon is deploying anti-missile systems to Guam in response to
the threats. It will take a while for the plethora of problems to get
resolved.
Back home fears of a snap poll have pulled down the market. BJP
President Rajnath Singh predicts the UPA government could collapse later this
year adding that the BJP is ready for early elections.
Slowdown in China and fall in commodity prices are among the major
concerns for the Indian market too. The political uncertainty will continue to
impact market movement. With talks of an early election on the cards, market
may turn cautious in the near term. Upcoming, Q4 results season could keep
investors on the sidelines. On Friday, Infosys will announce its quarterly and
yearly numbers. Investors will hope it can spring a surprise last quarter. The
guidance will be closely tracked. A wait and watch approach may seem prudent to
tide over the current turbulence. For investors who wish to stick their necks
out, banks could see some upswing. The other sectors which could see buying
include auto, pharma and select FMCG.
Gainers –
Monnet Ispat (up
8.3%), Adhunik Metaliks (up 6.8%), Ispat Industries (up 5.8%), Bhuwalka Steel
(up 3.5%) and Jindal Stainless (up 2.2%) were among the major gainers in Sensex
and Nifty.
Losers –
ata Sponge (down
2.2%), SAIL (down 1.8%), Tata Steel (down 1.2%) and Bhushan Steel (down 1%) were
among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.
Domestic
Front –
The Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan
Singh unveiled “Green National Accounts in India A Framework - Report of the
Expert Group” at an international workshop organized by the Ministry of
Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOS&PI). The report has been
prepared by an expert group set up by MOS&PI under the renowned economist
and Professor at University of Cambridge Sir Partha Dasgupta.
Shri Montek Singh Ahluwalia,
Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission; Dr. Pranob Sen, Chairman National
Statistical Commission, Dr. T.C.A. Anant, Secretary, MO&SPI, Professor Sir
Partha Dasgupta, Chairman of the Expert Group and several other National and
International delegates are participating in the two-day workshop.
Global Front
–
US –
Lower than expected jobs data for March sharply pulled US markets down
on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Averge is trading lower by 145 points, or
1%, while the S&P 500 is down 1.6%.
Data from the US Labour
Department showed that 88,000 jobs were added in March. The data was the worst
since June and way below the street's expectations.
If the S&P closes down for
the week, then it would do so for a third time in a row. The index is up 8% in
2013 without a major pull back.
The stock market has been bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program and stimulus packages from central banks around the world.
EU –
European stock markets struggled for direction on Thursday, as
investors awaited the latest monetary decisions from the European Central Bank
and the Bank of England.
===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================
The benchmark indices have closed below their 200-Day Moving
Averages for first time since August 2012, which is a bearish sign.
MID TO LONG
TERM VIEW -
Not only India,
but global markets as a whole are wading into a deep and vicious bear
market. Given the kind of fall seen in Indian shares in the last few
sessions, one should be prepared for something more serious in next few
months.
It is going to be a global bear market and not just an emerging
bear market because things like Cyprus are no less worse than a Lehman. This
bear market is like a wiper snake which causes a very painful death. I don’t
think this is a slow death; this is going to be a very prolonged, but extremely
painful. It is not going to be easy drifting down kind of bear market,
according to experts.
Also, most market experts complain about lack of retail
participation impacting the Indian equity market.
In this kind of a market this is extremely company specific, even
within sectors you have disparate performance coming out of different companies.
So, earnings outlook remains paramount for any investment decision.
A fall below this average indicates breach of support and market
participants consider closing their long positions inferring the long term
trend has turned bearish. 33 stocks in the Nifty are trading well below its 200
DMA.
Also, Experts are comparing it and believing that its making same
pattern as 2008. In fact after breaking the 200 DMA conclusively Nifty fell 50
percent in 2008 that was the biggest bear market.
According to experts - We also had a trend where some of these
high-flying midcaps fell quite a bit already before you saw the Nifty breaching
200 DMA. There was also a bit of a relief rally over the last 2 or 3 days.
Back in 2008, we had some of
these stocks actually falling another 50-60 percent after the breach of 200 DMA
on the Nifty. So that’s why that level is important.
Now one can focus more on defensives and interest rate sensitive
cyclicals
The
INDIA VIX on NSE up 1.96% and ended
at 16.16 against previous close of 15.85.
FNO
PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.90.
Indian Rupee – Rupee seen gained by 6 paisa and was trading at 54.81 against its
previous close of 54.87.
S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1553.28 down 6.70 then its
previous close at the time of writing M Bells.
======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK
========================
Technically if you
see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop
seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also
confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of
HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear
indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support
seems around 5200-5250.
Intraday Resistance –
5618 – 5597 – 5575 and Support – 5532 – 5512 – 5490 (Pivot 5555)
Opening – Seems down (small gap down) and under pressure as EU
turned deep RED and global sentiment are not supporting.
======================== STOCK OUTLOOK
======================
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
ITC –
ITC has increased Kings
cigarette prices by Rs20 for a 20 pack, according to reports.
Reports stated that four states
have already increased value added tax (VAT) on cigarettes
The stock is currently trading at
Rs292, down Rs7.35 or 2%.
The stock has hit a high of Rs299
and a low of Rs291.
Bharti
Airtel –
The battle between the government
and telecom companies is only intensifying over 3G intra-circle roaming pacts.
According to sources, the government is likely to go ahead and encash the Rs
350 crore bank guarantees submitted by Bharti Airtel reports.
Bank
of Baroda –
The Nassau branch of Bank of
Baroda in Bahamas has denied any involvement in the alleged transfer of Dawood
Ibrahim's funds. The bank's statement came a day after a CNN-IBN and FirstPost
investigation found that Dawood's cash was washing up in the offshore banking
haven of Nassau in The Bahamas - a beach paradise also known for its zero-taxes
and high-secrecy banking - in a Bank of Baroda branch.
====================
OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t
shows strength.
===============
INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
Mahindra
Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)
(Start
exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)
============
PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw
our attention)
MG
Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150
(Profit of Mahidra Satyam is not included here
because it was in investment basket and call was active since Dec. 12, once can
also compensate its profit with loss in On Mobile)
Billionaire
Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= -5700
(This is first time since Jan 13 when
BC PL went in RED)
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Stay away and see what song market is
going to play then dance.
============
Join MG on FaceBook ============
One can join MG on FB, just search MudraGuru
in FB, you will find MG there in top list.
Please make sure you need to send a message on
FaceBook – “I am blog reader / follower” OR any reference that how you come to
know about MG as currently MG is not accepting outside friendship request. This
is just because your message will ensure that you know MG and you are not unknown
person who just sending joining request to steal info of MG FB group.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer
–
1. I have shared my view as per my limited
knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution
of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those
that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t
enter this market.
