Welcome to the World of MudraGuru: 2013-02-10

Thursday 14 February 2013

Morning Bells (15 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A mistake which is not corrected immediately is another mistake. Good Morning.

It is a bit surprising that despite the good news flow today at least with the ease in inflation rate, the market failed to rise. The market returned to its trading range of 5,800- 6,000 after trading briefly above 6,000 for a few trading sessions. Perhaps the only reason that can be attributed is the mild slowdown in FII inflows dampening the market already kept in check by domestic institutional selling.

The Indian markets extended losses for second consecutive trading session on Thursday amid heavy selling in the Capital Goods, Oil & Gas, Auto, Power and the Realty sectors. The Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks also continued to get hammered across the board losing 1.4% and 1.8% respectively.

Better than expected January inflation data was also unable to lift the sentiment on Dalal Street. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 6.62% (Provisional) for the month of January, 2013 (over January, 2012) as compared to 7.18% (Provisional) for the previous month and 7.23% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

On the other hand, the CNX IT index extended gains for the second consecutive trading session after the industry body Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) forecasted strong growth for the sector in 2013-14 on Tuesday. Nasscom predicted that Indian IT industry is set to grow 12-14% to US$87bn in the period.

Infosys, TCS, Rolta, Polaris, and KPIT were among the top performers while shares of Siemens and Wipro ended lower by 5% and 3.5% respectively after exclusion from NSE Nifty index.

The two scrips which replaced Siemens and Wipro was the state run mining corporation NDMC and Raheja group promoted IndusInd bank. NDMC ended gained 1% while IndusInd bank ended almost unchanged.

Gainers – Infosys, TCS, Tata Power, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank, HUL, Sun Pharma, ITC, HDFC, NTPC and M&M were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Wipro, Hero MotoCorp, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Dr Reddys Lab, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Inds and SBI were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On Domestic Front –

Oil companies is planning to raise petrol price by Rs 1 per litre and diesel by 50 paise a litre if they get the informal nod of oil minister Veerappa Moily, according to reports.

Reports stated that Companies are free to charge market rates for petrol and raise diesel prices between 40 and 50 paise every month till it is aligned with global rates.

Companies are suffering a revenue loss of more than Rs 1 a litre on petrol and more than Rs 10 on a litre of diesel because of northward movement of global crude oil prices.

Indian Oil Chairman RS Butola reported that state oil marketing companies would "review" auto fuel rates this week. "

Exports growth after a gap of eight months returned to positive territory and grew by 0.8 per cent in January 2013. However, imports clocked a growth of 6.1 per cent and reached an all-time high of US$45.6bn in January 2013 due to higher oil import bill. As a consequence, India’s trade deficit, after narrowing to US$17.7bn in December 2012, again swelled to US$20.0 bn in January 2013, an increase of 13.8% on y-o-y basis.

On Global front –

FII inflow reduced and market participant expecting they will back before budget.

===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================

As suggested short term trend is down. Now one can expect some fireworks with the Budget coming up towards the end of the month that may offer opportunities for the market to breakout of this range hopefully on the upside. But if the Budget proposals are not up to the market’s expectation, then there could be a breakdown as well. So probably that will be time when market will come out from narrow trading range to either side.

Regarding downward journey, Nifty will find good support nearby 5840 – 5820 – 5780, so one can also expect firm sentiment next ahead of budget.

Well, as told y’day Nifty taken support around 5900 mark and today registered modest gains. Still Nifty is in the middle of range i.e. Nifty will find support around 5880 and will face resistance around 5950 and Nifty is just closed @5922, so still there’s no clarity but yes I can say market can move further as it has defended not technical but physiological mark 5900.

Once again if there’s dip till 5840 mark then for cash segment this downside can be used to buy, people who have missed the rally in 2012 can join the party mean one can watch 2 levels, 5840 & 5780-5800-5820, these tri levels can be watched carefully and one can initiate fresh longs in this range, as all seems good support and hopefully market can bottom out from here. They can keep SL 5870 itself.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.33% and ended at 15.09 against previous close of 15.31.

FNO PCR is 0.87 against previous close 0.97.

Indian Rupee – weakened further against USD and closed 10 paisa lower and was trading at 53.92 against its previous close of 53.82.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1520.33 up 0.90 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK ========================

Technically, Nifty faced stiff resistance at the 50 DMA which was placed at 5960 mark. The near term support for the index is seen at the 5820 mark, which is also the 100 DMA. On the upside the 50 DMA could emerge as strong resistance zone near 5960 levels.

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 5985 – 5962 – 5929 and Support – 5874 – 5851 - 5818

Opening – Again seems flat and under pressure.

======================== STOCK OUTLOOK ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Tata Motors –

ata Motors declined by 3% to close at 295 after the company has posted a net loss of Rs (4584.90) mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to net profit of Rs. 1736.7mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011. Total Income has decreased from Rs. 134704.8mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 107418.9mn for the quarter ended December 31, 20

SBI -

SBI declined by 2% to close at Rs2206 after the bank posted disappointing results. The bank registered net profit of Rs33960.60mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to Rs. 32630.40mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011. Total Income has increased from Rs. 297873.70mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 339921.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

LIC Housing -

Shares of LIC Housing Finance slumped by over 6% to close at Rs251 after the Company posted a net profit of Rs. 2362.462 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to Rs. 3056.936 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011. Total Income has increased from Rs. 15925.397 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 19549.626 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Maruti –

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd has been deleted from the MSCI India index, according to reports. Reports stated that the changes will take places of the close of trade on Feb. 28.

Infy –

Country's second largest software services firm Infosys today said it has received approval for listing of its American Depositary Shares (ADS) on NYSE Euronext Paris.

"The French Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) the French Financial Markets Authority -- has approved the company's prospectus for admission of its ADS for listing and trading on the professional segment of NYSE Euronext Paris, and has granted visa number 13-029, dated February 13, 2013, on the prospectus," Infosys said in a statement.

Suzlon Energy -

One of the largest wind turbine suppliers, reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 1,154.5 crore in the third quarter of FY13, an increase of 4-fold compared to a loss of Rs 286.5 crore in a year ago period due to lower total income.

Consolidated total income dropped 19.6 percent to Rs 4,047.7 crore from Rs 5,033.5 crore during the same period.

Numbers were quite below analysts' expectations. Analysts on an average had expected net loss of Rs 307 crore and total income of Rs 5,577 crore for the quarter.

Suzlon posted a consolidated forex loss at Rs 47 crore during the quarter as against loss of Rs 34.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Adani Ports 140PE – @1.7 (2 lot) TG 2.5+ SL 1 (2 Lots)

Booked profit Intraday @2.75 Total Gain = +4200 (on 2 lots)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +2300 + 4200 = +6500

(Adani Ports = +4200)

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +15500 – 4000 = +11,500

(Kotak Bank Fut bought @692 exited 671 = -10500)

(Kotak Bank Fut Shorted @677 exited 668 = -500)

(Airtel 340CE bought @2.7 booked 4.1 (1 lots) = +1400)

(LIC 280CE bought @4 booked 4.7 (2 lots) = +1400)

(Adani Port 140PE bought @1.7 booked 2.75 (2 lots) = +4200)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Book your shorts around 5860-5840 and then mkt can go firm till budget.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Wednesday 13 February 2013

Morning Bells (14 Feb 2013)

Good Morning Friends.

If world refuses to help you, just remember the words of Einstein “I am thankful to all those who said NO, it’s because of them I did it myself.”

Finally FII came back in the game and trying to hold the levels as they have fuelled USD 7-billion in FII flows till date. But its not time to cheers as market failed to build on Tuesday’s winning ways as selling pressure in Power, Metals, Capital Goods, Realty and FMCG stocks wiped out almost all intra-day gains. The mid-cap and the small-cap stocks too witnessed offloading.

The Indian IT sector is likely to get fresh deals worth USD 3 billion from the US and UK for the calendar year 2013. That's the news coming from the NASSCOM Leadership Summit.

In the run up to Budget 2013-14, the finance ministry is considering various areas of taxation and is mulling a cess on import of crude oil. It could be as low as one percent.

A one percent cess of crude oil will get the government close to Rs 750-800 crore and will only marginally impact the prices of petrol and diesel . Sources in the government told CNBC-TV18 that this Budget is going to focus on economic revival.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma and ONGC, Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Wipro, BHEL, Coal India, HUL, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Power, L&T, Tata Steel, Dr Reddys Lab and Hindalco Inds were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – BSE IT index was the top performer, HCL Technologies surged 4.3%, Infosys gained 1%, Satyam Computer was up by 1%. TCS rose by 1.6%.

On Domestic Front –

1. Siemens and Wipro to be excluded from Nifty wef 01042013 and indusind and NMDC to be included, according to reports.

2. Exports during January, 2013 were valued at US$25587.24mn (Rs. 138981.70 crore) which was 0.82% higher in Dollar terms (6.67% higher in Rupee terms) than the level of US$25379.05mn (Rs. 130294.02 crore) during January, 2012. Cumulative value of exports for the period April-January 2012 -13 was US$239687.01mn (Rs 1305420.39) as against US$251930.14mn (Rs 1196962.33 crore) registering a negative growth of 4.86% in Dollar terms and growth of 9.06% in Rupee terms over the same period last year.

3. The Brand Trust Report, India Study (BTR) - 2013 is out, and Amul, the pride of Gujarat, has been listed as India's Most Trusted Food & Beverage (F&B) brand out of a total of 123 brands listed in the category. Climbing 56 ranks over its last year, it also becomes India's 22nd Most Trust among all brands. Nestle Maggi is the next in F&B list followed by Parle, Britannia, Coca-Cola and Cadbury's. Pepsi which was last year's F&B leader, drops down 53 ranks to go drop down as the 7th Most Trusted F&B brand (and also All India's 69th Most Trusted brand). In the sub-category of Dairy in Food & Beverage, after Amul are Aarey (at All India 390th rank) and Mother Dairy (at All India 406th rank).

4. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Wednesday cracked down on Sahara group, freezing more than 100 bank accounts of two of its companies. Sources said that the immovable assets of the two companies were also frozen.

The SEBI also attached the assets and properties of Sahara India Real Estate Corporation (SIREC) and Sahara Housing Investment Corporation (SHIC).

The action came days after the Supreme Court had questioned SEBI over the delay in action against Sahara. The apex court said the SEBI was free to freeze accounts and seize properties of Sahara Group's two companies for defying court order of refunding Rs 24,000 crore to investors.

On Global front –

President Barack Obama opened the first State of the Union address of his second term calling on the nation to "reignite the true engine of America s economic growth.".

"Thanks to the grit and determination of the American people, there is much progress to report," Obama said. "Together, we have cleared away the rubble of crisis, and we can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger."

He challenged members of Congress to work through their differences for the good of the country. "The American people don t expect government to solve every problem. They don t expect those of us in this chamber to agree on every issue. But they do expect us to put the nation's interests before party," he said.

===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================

Though the market has been continuously losing strength, but still some analysts feel that there is something more to cheer up investors. Experts feels that the downside of the market is about 100-200 points whereas the upside could be to the tune of 500-600 points atleast.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.1% and ended at 15.31 against previous close of 15.65.

FNO PCR is 0.97 against previous close 0.83.

Indian Rupee – Instead of gains Rupee didn’t strengthen, it got marginal against USD and closed 0.03 paisa lower and was trading at 53.82 against its previous close of 53.85.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1520.11 up 0.68 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK ========================

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 6007 – 5988 – 5960 and Support – 5914 – 5895 - 5867

Opening - seems flat and under pressure.

======================== STOCK OUTLOOK ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Tata Motors –

Tata Motors gained by 2.2% to close at Rs305 on Wednesday. The manufacturer of Luxury sports saloons and sports cars reported an increase of 32% in global sales for January at 34,877 units. January sales went up across major markets with 46% in 24% in North America, 74% increase in China, Asia Pacific, 33 % in the UK, and 10% up in Europe reported JLR. . It touched a high of Rs.312 and a low of Rs. 307. Total traded quantity at the counter stood at 2.31lakh. Sales of the Land Rover brand were up 31%, at 29,118 vehicles. Land Rover sales clocked record sales for the month of January in all major geographies and markets including including the UK, USA and Germany, reports said. Sales for the Jaguar brand in the month of January stood at 5,759 vehicles up almost 40%, sales were up 70 & for XJ model of Jaguar brand, 37% up in XF –the company reported that Jaguar sales increased in all major markets.

Important Note –

Tata Motors has bagged an order for the company's fully indigenous Tata 6x6 multi-axle high mobility mobile platforms, from Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bangalore, to mount Radar applications meant for the Indian Air Force.

The Tata 6x6 versatile multi-axle vehicle platform, will give BEL's radar system the mobility to be placed strategically, at almost any location, to detect both low-flying aircraft and 'spy planes' or unmanned aerial vehicles, and the ability to detect other kinds of intrusions. Tata Motors will supply 26 Tata 6x6 multi-axle vehicles to BEL Bangalore.

Tata Motors is also in the process of delivering 96 'Specialist Tractors' for the Indian Defence forces "Akash" missile programme.

About Result –

India's largest commercial vehicle maker Tata Motors has seen its profits surge over last couple of years, driven by its luxury Jaguar Land Rover passenger vehicle division. However, its third quarter earnings are expected to skid, dragged down by losses in the standalone business as sales have hit a road block.

Not to forget, it has already warned of flat earnings growth and declining margins at JLR as well, due to unfavourable forex shifts and high share of low margin Evoque SUV. The Tata group company will report its earnings for Oct-Dec on Thursday.

At the consolidated level, Tata Motors is expected to report a net profit of Rs 2,250 crore, down 34 percent year-on-year, while revenue is seen up 4.4 percent at Rs 47,277 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll.

IOC -

Total Income has increased from Rs. 10,78,686.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 11,64,744.40 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Coal India -

Total Income has increased from Rs. 172271 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 196855.30 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Tata Steel –

Tata Steel Ltd has posted a net loss after taxes, Minority Interest and Share of Profit / (loss) of Associates of Rs. (7630.60) mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to net loss of Rs. (6026.70) mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011.

Total Income has decreased from Rs. 333567.40 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 321630.00 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Unitech –

Total Income has increased from Rs. 5476.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 6793.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.