Morning Bells (19 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favour, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

The week has been intensely volatile on varied cues both domestic and international and I am expecting volatility to perk up today as its already weekly closing day and secondly today is the day of industry heavyweight Reliance Industries.

Y’day better-than-expected quarterly earnings led by Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and Kotak bank swung the mood.

Gainers –

Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Ambuja Cements, NTPC, ITC, Tata Power, ACC and Reliance Industries were among the top gainers.

Losers -

Tata Steel, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, Ranbaxy, HDFC Bank, Cairn India, NMDC and IndusInd Bank lost out in trade Y’day.

Sectoral –

It was great day, not a single sector on the Bombay Stock Exchange ended in the red.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

So finally market reacted of the measures taken by Govt. so if today also market continues its upward journey then chances would be high to touch previous high or for new high but here big dollar question is whether those levels are sustainable ? will it sustain the gains?

My view is – all depends on how Govt. executes number of initiatives it has recently announced. On upside one can expect 6230 and on downside many believes that it wont breach 5900 in short term. Break of 6230 would be a great surprise in the absence of initiative or any big trigger.

Apart from corporate earnings, Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy and monsoon session of parliament will provide the next big trigger for the market.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down by 5.63% and ended at 18.27 against previous close of 19.36.

FNO PCR was 1.20 against previous close 1.13.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 33 paisa and was trading at 59.67 against its previous close of 59.34.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1688.29 up 7.38 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

19 July – RIL, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, Hexaware

22 July – L&T

23 July – Century,

24 July – Yes Bank, Ambuja Cement, Cairn, Central Bank, HeroMoto, Indiabulls Real Estate, Uniphos

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now for immediate short term market enter into 5900-6150 range. Today will confirm the trend, as earlier we had discussed that 2 successive close above 5935 will take Nifty to 6050/6100.

Opening – Market is set to start on positive note, however second part seems highly volatile ahead of heavyweight Q1 no.s and weekly closing day.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Rcom –

Reliance Communications gained over 2.5% to close at Rs. 147 after the company launched a new 3G data offer at 2G data prices.

RIL –

Analysts on an average expect RIL to post  profit of anything between Rs 5,500- 6,000 crore on revenues of Rs 92,000 crore. The firm had posted Rs 44730 crore profit on revenues of Rs 918750 crore in the year-ago period.

FMCG -

Now talks in the market about whether FMCG sector will lose its shine or not? FMCG stocks which kept the index up even though the Bank Nifty was down by about 4.5-5 percent. So, having held on to these levels for that period of time some experts feel that its very doubtful that they would surrender the stock price levels so easily.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TRACK Today –

L&T – Buy above 988.5 TG 1007/1015 SL 984

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 58,800)

July 13 = +800

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

July 13 = +6500 – 4400 = +1100

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just watch and take clue from market online as its very uncertain how participant are going to react.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Morning Bells (18 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Never get discouraged, when your first few attempts fails, its often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock.

Equity benchmarks recouped some of previous day's losses on Wednesday with the Sensex closing near 20000 level. Short covering in many of the beaten down stocks and value buying in FMCG space helped the market, but gains were capped due to further fall in banks and metals shares.

Hindustan Unilever was the star performer today, with the shares soaring 12 percent intraday to touch a record high of Rs 698.95 on rebalancing of the stock's weightage by FTSE and MSCI in their indices.

FMCG major also hiked prices of its several personal care products. The stock closed at Rs 684.75 on the BSE, up 9.86 percent.

However, it was yet another bearish session for the banks with the Bank Nifty falling more than 2 percent. It had crashed nearly 5 percent in previous session after RBI announced measures to curb rupee depreciation.

The market opened gap up after the government hiked foreign direct investment in 13 sectors, including 100% in telecom and higher caps in insurance and defence sectors. However, the indices saw a free-fall post lunch. It staged a stellar recovery from the day's lows thanks to index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever.

Telecom shares, which were in the spotlight for the last couple of days saw huge profit-booking. The government raised the FDI cap in telecom sector to 100%. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications dipped 2% each while Idea Cellular tanked 4.2%. MTNL bucked the trend and ended in the green up 1.4%.

Gainers –

Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Ambuja Cements, NTPC, ITC, Tata Power, ACC and Reliance Industries were among the top gainers.

Losers -

Tata Steel, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, Ranbaxy, HDFC Bank, Cairn India, NMDC and IndusInd Bank lost out in trade Y’day.

Sectoral –

Among sectors, FMCG, healthcare , banks, IT, consumer durables, realty, auto, metal, capital goods, and oil and gas gained while power was the sole loser.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

FED to scale back bond program later this year, no deadline set yet –

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke kept up with his guessing game on when the massive $85bn monthly bond buying program will be tapered. In his address to the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, Bernanke said the Fed expects to start scaling back its massive asset purchase program later this year. However, he left open the option open to change that plan in either direction if the economic outlook shifted.

In prepared remarks for his semiannual monetary report before the US House financial services committee, the Fed chairman said, "With unemployment still high and declining only gradually, and with inflation running below the Committee's longer-run objective, a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future."

"Our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, but they are by no means on a preset course," he stated.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

May be today is the day to react of reform measures taken by Govt.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 1.95% and ended at 19.36 against previous close of 18.99.

FNO PCR was 1.13 against previous close 1.25.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined a bit by 3 paisa and was trading at 59.34 against its previous close of 59.31.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1682.17 up 5.91 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

18 July – TCS, Axis Bank & Kotak Mahindra Banks Q1 No.s

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

It was one of rare day when almost all the analysis fails. Now what one can expect is – 5940 could be a support for immediate short term, if broken then 5750/5700 is the next level. On upside 5970/6040 / 6100 is the major hurdle or resistance.

Opening – Seems a small gap up as today is the day of TCS, Axis and also participant get a slight hope of rate cut, so rate sensitive is again on buying radar.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

HDFC Ban Q1 –

HDFC Bank Ltd has posted results for the first quarter ended 30th June, 2013.

Its Q1 PAT stands at Rs18.43bn, While its Q1 gross NPA is at 1%. While Q1 provisions stands at Rs5.27bn.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 98251.70 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 to Rs. 115885.60 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2013.

NPA - A marginal rise of 10 basis points in the bank's net non-performing asset ratio, which stood at 0.30 percent as against a static level 0.20 percent recorded for last so many quarters.

TCS –

According to experts - Tata Consultancy Services posting a net sales of Rs. 176.04bn, a gain of 7.1% quarter-on-quarter. On the operating profit margin front, Mehta sees a 36 bps QoQ fall at 28%. He forecasts a 2.1% QoQ growth in net profit at Rs. 36.73bn.

For FY13, the IT major logged in revenues of Rs. 629.89bn, an increase of 28.8% over the preceding year. It reported a net profit of Rs. 139.41bn for the period, up 30.9% over last year.

Axis Bank –

According to experts - Axis Bank posting a net interest income of Rs. 27.87bn, a gain of 27.9% year-on-year. On the net interest margin front, Mehta sees a 23 bps YoY rise at 3.6%. He forecasts a 24.4% YoY growth in net profit at Rs. 14.35bn.

In Q4 FY13, higher interest income and stable loan growth helped the country’s third largest private bank post a 22% YoY increase in net profit at Rs. 15.55bn. Net interest income -- the difference between interest earned and expended -- increased 24% YoY at Rs. 26.65bn.

HUL-

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) shares surged more than 12 percent intraday to hit an all-time high of 698.95 Wednesday on MSCI and FTSE rebalancing.

The float of the stock will go up to 33 percent from 24 percent in FTSE All-World Index and All Emerging Index with effect from July 22.

"Hindustan Unilever (India) will remain in the index with an unchanged shares in issue total of 2,15,94,71,968 and an increased investability weighting of 33 percent," FTSE said on its website.

The changes were made by the exchange following the completion of a cash open offer by Unilever (United Kingdom) in Hindustan Unilever (India, Large Cap) and receipt updated Foreign Ownership Limted information.

Meanwhile, the current float of FMCG major in MSCI India Index reduced to 30 percent from 40 percent effective today.

Coal India –

State-run Coal India (CIL) plans to enter into power generation business, exclusive sources told CNBC-TV18.  Though the plan is at a preliminary stage, CIL may consider installing 1,200-1,500 megawatt capacity initially.

Meanwhile, there are reports that CIL may install GPS based tracking of transportation of coal by March 31, 2014.Tenders have been floated for the purpose.

According to sources, CIL plans to cover all major projects (mines) under the GPS-based movement tracking system after the Coal Ministry encouraged it for the same. Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal had earlier said that coal companies have been slow in implementing mechanisation in the mines.

The ministry had suggested the system for all mines to prevent theft of coal and increase productivity. CIL had suggested that GPS system is one of the tools to achieve this goal.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TRACK Today –

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 58,800)

July 13 = +800

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

July 13 = +6500 – 4400 = +1100

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just watch and take clue from market online as its very uncertain how participant are going to react.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Morning Bells (17 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Never get discouraged, when your first few attempts fails, its often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock.

It was a terrible Tuesday with the stock market witnessing serious collateral damage. The benchmark indices crashed in opening trade after the Reserve Bank on Monday announced measures to tighten rupee liquidity. In a move to curb exchange rate volatility, it raised the marginal standing facility and the bank rate to 10.25% from 8.25%. The RBI also decided to lower rupee liquidity in the system by capping the liquidity adjustment facility at Rs. 75,000cr from Wednesday.

RBI’s move will hurt the stocks of banking and non-banking financial companies mainly like Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Mahindra Finance and Shriram Transport Finance Company are likely to be hit adversely in the near term.

FDI cap increase – A step to improve FII inflow in Doldrums

Telecom and Courier Service – 100% from 74%

Defence – 26%

Insurance – 49% from 26%

FDI in public sector gas refineries, commodity exchanges, power trading, stock exchanges and clearing corporations will be allowed up to 49% under the automatic route as against current routing of investment through FIPB.

For petroleum and natural gas, the government has maintained its sectoral cap at 49%.

In credit information firms, 74% FDI under the automatic route will be allowed.

Gainers –

ITC, BPCL, Ambuja Cements, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, ACC, ONGC, Tata Motors and NTPC were among the top gainers.

Losers -

DLF, IndusInd Bank, JP Associates, IDFC, Axis Bank, Punjab National Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and Reliance Infrastructure lost out in trade Y’day.

Sectoral –

Among sectors, FMCG, healthcare , banks, IT, consumer durables, realty, auto, metal, capital goods, and oil and gas gained while power was the sole loser.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

After RBI measure announcement to curb Rupee fall market crashed in opening itself. This move will hurt the stocks of banking and non-banking financial companies materially.

Also step taken by RBI has deemed or say washed out the hopes for further rate cuts. This is what prompted the sell-off in rate sensitive banking, realty and auto stocks.

I feel sentiment remained weak as many international brokerage houses cut India's FY14 growth forecast to 5.5% of GDP from 5.8% earlier.

However it would be interesting to see how market reacts on the decision of increasing FDI cap in Telecom and Insurance.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 1.06% and ended at 18.99 against previous close of 18.79.

FNO PCR was 1.15 against previous close 1.25.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained by 58 paisa and was trading at 59.31 against its previous close of 59.89.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1674.76 down 7.74 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

18 July – Axis Bank Q1 No.s

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

It was one of rare day when almost all the analysis fails. Now what one can expect is – 5940 could be a support for immediate short term, if broken then 5750/5700 is the next level. On upside 5970/6040 / 6100 is the major hurdle or resistance.

Today would be an important day for market, need to watch closely how investors reacting on Govt.s taken steps. If there’s thin line of hope then market may go flat to positive else its drifting lower and lower.

Opening – Seems flat, first half an hour should be watched closely as market may go for dip if investors don’t see any relief measures taken by Govt.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

JPA 57.5CE - @1.1 SL 0.6 TG 2+ (1 lot)

TRACK Today –

L&T (up), M&M (can go up), Rpower (up), RIL (up)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 58,800)

July 13 = +3000 – 2200 = +800

(Booked loss 2200 in JPA CE)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

July 13 = +6500 – 4400 = +1100

(Booked loss in JPA 4.4K, 2 lots)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just watch and take clue from market online as its very uncertain how participant are going to react.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.