Morning Bells (17 May 13)

GM Friends,

Today was busy with some work and didnt get sufficient time to prepare MB. But still 6190 is to be watch closely, its on closing basis. Also its Friday so go for cautious approach after EU opening.

Will be on board during market hours, here and on FB.

Morning Bells (16 May 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Opportunities are like an ICE, if you think more about it, it melts – I learned in past 3-4 days.

Boom!! Nobody would have even think in dreams about this. Its market and man who will catch news first can grab a jackpot.

Well, it was an incredible rally in a really long time. Led by rate sensitives like banking, realty and autos, the Nifty hit a fresh 52-week high of 6,157.10.

Dealers attribute today’s strong up move to heavy buying by exchange-traded funds. Duvvuri Subbarao, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, added to the cheer. He said the apex bank would take note of falling inflation before formulating its monetary policy on June 17.

Also a major reason behind rally was - RBI’s forensic study into Cobrapost’s money-laundering allegations has found India’s three largest private lenders — ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank—not guilty of money laundering but “there could be instances of tax evasion.”

There are also rumours that South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex may be upgraded to developed from developing markets. This will result in huge fresh fund allocation to emerging markets like India.

Gainers –

Ranbaxy Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Bank of Baroda, Power Grid, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, GAIL (India), Punjab National Bank, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and HDFC were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -

There’s surprise also - Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and Cairn India were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Banking stocks were the star performers in trade with index heavyweights like SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank leading from the front. The Bank Nifty has made a new all-time high, surging about 4% to close at 13,083.

So, broad-based was the rally that no single sectoral index ended in the red. It was heartening to see mid- and small-cap stocks participating after a long time.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

France slides into recession –

Germany's economy crept back into growth at the start of the year but not by enough to stop the euro zone from contracting for a sixth straight quarter, and  France slid into recession.

Falling output across the bloc meant the 17-nation economy is in its longest recession since records began in 1995.

It shrank 0.2 percent in the January to March period, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday, worse than the 0.1 percent contraction forecast by a Reuters poll.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As the wholesale index, retail inflation and trade deficit numbers are out, the market will now eye January-March Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the next big trigger. 

KEY DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK -

Mon: Consumer price inflation

Tues: Wholesale price inflation

Wed: Money supply data

Fri: Bank credit and forex exchange reserves data

31 May - Fourth quarter gross domestic profit (GDP) numbers

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 5.99% and ended at 18.13 against previous close of 17.17.

FNO PCR was 0.90 against previous close 0.97.

Indian Rupee – Not appreciated much instead of wonderful rally, Rupee gained 3 paisa and was trading at 54.78 against its previous close of 54.81.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1652.71 up 2.37 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –

Probably this week following results are expected –

Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Rashtriya Chemical, Tata Coffee, Tata Tele, Dr Reddy’s lab, Reliance Infra, United Bank, Adani Ports and J&K Bank.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now immediate range says – 5950 would be a trend changer on down side and then Nifty can head towards 5820 levels while for further upside seesm capped for 6190. There are also view of all time high too. Well Nifty closed above 6115 and as discussed during the day 6130-6140 will act as midway range.

Opening – Seems flat and some profit booking as well as cool off can be seen after such a wonderful rally.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM rebound to its previous levels and reached again in its no trade zone 306-312, it tried a lot to break 312 but failed. So coming few sessions seems challenging for TM.

DLF –

DLF surged around 5% as its offer subscribe 1.3%

Tata Communication -

Tata Communications Ltd said on Wednesday it will delist from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and terminate its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) programme.

"Our decision to delist, deregister and terminate our ADR program was the result of several factors, including the fact that our ADR program had not developed the trading volumes we had initially hoped when we listed," chief executive Vinod Kumar said in a statement.

Kumar said a rule set by the Indian market regulator for listed companies to have a minimum 25 percent public shareholding , excluding ADRs, was also a "crucial factor" in the decision.

Money-losing Tata Communications, one of the world's biggest undersea cable network operators, is a former Indian state monopoly, now controlled by the salt-to-software Tata conglomerate.

RBI to  kickstart sale of inflation –indexed bond on June 4 -

The Reserve Bank of India will sell Rs 10-20 billion of inflation-indexed bonds on June 4, kickstarting monthly sales of a new type of debt the country is introducing this year.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 56,050)

May 2013 - +3000 + 1500 TV18 profit – 1750 DLF loss = +2750

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 1,10,950)

May 2013 - +6000 + 4500 (profit in Yes Bank) + 750 (profit in DLF) = +11,250

Today’s MG Mantra –

Fundamentally nothing has changed except people started talking about another rate cut. So be carefull and watch 5990 as SL for short term trend.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

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Have a Profitable day – MG

Morning Bells (15 May 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Opportunities are like an ICE, if you think more about it, it melts – I learned in past 3-4 days.

So today was the day for WPI, but as suggested during the day it would not have that much effect and it indeed followed the lines. The wholesale price index (WPI) in April rose 4.89 percent, at its slowest pace since November 2009. 

The wholesale price index, India's main inflation measure, rose an annual 5.96 percent in March.

As per official data released today, WPI inflation in the manufactured items category declined to 3.41 per cent in April from 4.07 per cent in March.

Also, inflation in food articles category, which has a 14.34 per cent share in the WPI basket, came down to 6.08 per cent. Inflation in this category was at 8.73 per cent in March.

The RBI will take into account the declining inflationary trend while unveiling its mid-quarter policy review on June 17.

The wholesale provisional inflation data for February was revised higher and as told market participants seemed to have already factored in the steep decline in April inflation data.

Gainers –

Ranbaxy Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Bank of Baroda, Power Grid, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, GAIL (India), Punjab National Bank, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and HDFC were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Bajaj Auto, HCL Technologies, BHEL, JP Associates, DLF, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and M&M were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Domestic Front –

Rupee Phenomena –

The rupee edged lower on Tuesday as a sharp easing in wholesale price inflation raised optimism the central bank would cut interest rates to boost economic growth, but gains were short-lived as the dollar remained well bid in the local market.

Headline inflation fell below 5 percent in April, dropping within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort zone for the first time in more than three years and fuelling hopes it would continue its easing campaign.

However, the rupee still remains constrained by other factors, including concerns the current account deficit will widen after data on Monday showed a spike in the trade deficit due to a jump in gold and oil imports.

"The inflation data was a huge positive and prompted foreign banks to sell the dollar. Later there was some small demand (for dollars) coupled with a short market which pushed the rupee off highs," said Ashish Barua, a senior forex dealer at IndusInd Bank.

"The rupee should continue to trade in a range in the near-term, 55 to 55.10 should be capped on the topside while 54.25-54.30 will be the floor for USD/INR," he added.

(MoneyControl.com)

RBI Restricted Gold imports –

Gold buying in India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, came to a halt on Tuesday, a day after the central bank restricted gold imports on consignment basis and jewellery sellers saw a sharp rise in festival sales.

On May 13, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) banned gold imports through consignment, and traders awaited for more clarity from the central bank. Gold and silver imports rose 138 percent in value terms to $7.5 billion, data from the trade ministry showed, increasing pressure on the current account balance.

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As the wholesale index, retail inflation and trade deficit numbers are out, the market will now eye January-March Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the next big trigger. 

KEY DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK -

Mon: Consumer price inflation

Tues: Wholesale price inflation

Wed: Money supply data

Fri: Bank credit and forex exchange reserves data

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1.94% and ended at 17.17 against previous close of 17.51.

FNO PCR was 0.97 against previous close 1.01.

Indian Rupee – Instead of easing inflation Rupee declined further on the account of weakness in Yen or say dollar gain against yen, Rupee declined 8 paisa and was trading at 54.81 against its previous close of 54.73.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1646.30 up 12.53 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –

Probably this week following results are expected –

Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Rashtriya Chemical, Tata Coffee, Tata Tele, Dr Reddy’s lab, Reliance Infra, United Bank, Adani Ports and J&K Bank.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now immediate range says – 5950 would be a trend changer on down side and then Nifty can head towards 5820 levels while for further upside Nifty need to close Friday’s high 6115. Till then Nifty seems consolidating between 5970-6030. Range bound session would be really difficult for option traders.

Opening – Seems a bit positive as inflation easy and now GDP is the key data to watch. Further it may be a bit volatile.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM followed the trend and closed below 301, but it can not be considered as the regular close as not single stock there which is not lost in this free fall. So if mkt remains flat or rebound, TM to rebound on previous levels.

DLF –

DLF shares have been bought by mostly foreign institutional investors (FII).  In fact, when last week DLF decided that they wanted to go ahead with this institutional placement programme, they had already got a pretty healthy order demand . The company was trying to go ahead with the programme last week itself, but it wasn’t able to file the prospectus in time, among other things. 

One investor alone has placed an order for almost half the book at USD 165 million. There are three investors who have placed orders for USD 100 million each. The floor price is about Rs 222 per share. This institutional placement programme is to pare DLF’s debt to meet Sebi guidelines of having a 25 percent minimum float by the month of June.

Fresh equity of 8.1 crore shares is on offer. According to sources, DLF will announce the response to the issue at 4 pm to the stock exchanges, which of course is the practice.

But the order book has been covered about 1.2-1.5 times at Rs 225 per share, which is higher than floor price of Rs 222. But overall, it has got a subscription of over two times so far.

View – So as told most probably DLF to rebound or at least hold around the levels, yes if Nifty now don’t play any panic. Nifty 5820 is also on card.

Banking Sector -

The recent Reserve Bank forensic report on Cobrapost's money-laundering revelations continued to haunt the banking pack with major scrips witnessed selling pressure on every rise.

FNCG -

FMCG have good run in recent so avoid fresh buying on this counter, it need a correction now.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 56,050)

May 2013 - +3000 + 1500 TV18 profit – 1750 DLF loss = +2750

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 1,10,950)

May 2013 - +6000

Today’s MG Mantra –

A cautious approach is suggested, as Monday’s panic sell is not over yet, it may again surprise.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Morning Bells (14 May 13)

Good Morning Friends.

People say there’s no difference between “Complete” & “Finish” but when you trust a right person you are complete and when you trust a wrong person you are finished.

After hitting a new calendar year high and surging past the 6100 mark in Saturday’s special trading session, profit-booking gripped the Nifty. It fell sharply in trade today registering its biggest intra-day percentage fall since May 8, 2012.

Higher-than expected trade deficit numbers for April was all that the markets needed to free fall – a sell-off from which it never recovered. Trade deficit in April widened to $17.8bn. Exports increased 1.68% at $24.2bn while imports expanded 10.96% at $41.9bn.

Signs of a recovery in the US economy also made investors jittery as they feel a portion of global liquidity flows could ease as the Federal Reserve starts tightening its monetary policy.

The market is abuzz with news that the Reserve Bank of India’s forensic study into Cobrapost’s money-laundering allegations has unearthed fictitious permanent account numbers, unknown non-resident ordinary accounts and rampant non-compliance of know your customer norms.

Media reports suggest that the apex bank’s probe into private banks like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank threw up KYC violations and cash transfers from non-resident accounts.

This took a toll on the banking index, which declined 1.6%, with index heavyweights like State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Bank of Baroda, IndusInd Bank, and Punjab National Bank losing out.

The currency too played spoilsport in today’s session. It depreciated sharply and is near striking distance of the 55 per dollar mark.

Gainers –

Aha – hard to say – you guess why.

Losers -

Reliance Industries, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharti Airtel, Coal India, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Hindalco, Hero MotoCorp, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, State Bank of India, Tata Power, BHEL, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Bank, Cipla, HDFC and Hindustan Univlever.

Sectoral –

Among sectoral indices, the FMCG index was the top loser, declining 3% led by a sharp sell-off in index heavyweight ITC. The cigarette major was down 5% registering its biggest intra-day fall since May 8, 2012. 

The other major laggards included metals, capital goods, autos and oil & gas stocks. Even mid- and small-cap stocks were not spared.

Domestic Front –

A section within the Congress party is keen on replacing Dr Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister, sources said on Monday. According to the sources, the leaders want Singh replaced before the monsoon session of Parliament.

While there is no consensus yet on the alternative name, sources said that defence minister AK Antony and finance minister P Chidambaram could be considered.

Meanwhile, a few leaders are in favour of Rahul Gandhi taking over from Singh.

Sources, however, added that Sonia Gandhi hadn't yet decided on replacing Singh.

(Source: MoneyControl.com)

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Some key facts about y’day fall –

(1)

As informed 6100-6130 is crucial range where one need to book profit on safe side, becoz this was the highest level in past 2 years, so speculation to move beyond the level was quite low. However, I do not think y’day fall necessarily marks or signals the end of this uptrend.

(2)

Signs of a recovery in the US economy also made investors jittery as they feel a portion of global liquidity flows could ease as the Federal Reserve starts tightening its monetary policy. The Dow and S&P 500 ended at record highs on Friday, and stocks posted a third consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 is up 14.6 percent for the year.

(3)

Macro economy data does not much support that India is on 'a road to recovery'. There was a belief that India's current account deficit would start improving on the margin with the fall in gold and crude prices. However, April trade deficit leapt to USD 17.8 billion on massive surge in imports of cheaper gold.

(4)

Gold and silver imports were up by 138 percent to USD 7.5 billion last month compared to a year earlier, as retail consumers in the world's biggest gold importer went on a buying spree after global prices fell.

KEY DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK -

Mon: Consumer price inflation

Tues: Wholesale price inflation

Wed: Money supply data

Fri: Bank credit and forex exchange reserves data

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3.98% and ended at 17.51 against previous close of 16.84.

FNO PCR was 1.01 against previous close XXX.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained later 7 paisa and was trading at 54.73 against its previous close of 54.8.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1632.17 down 1.53 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALENDER –

Probably this week following results are expected –

Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Reliance Power, Rashtriya Chemical, Tata Coffee, Tata Tele, Dr Reddy’s lab, Reliance Infra, United Bank, Adani Ports and J&K Bank.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty may see some cautious approach this week and key reason are – we have important data announcement this week, secondly Nifty is reached in the range of 6100-6130 which seems crucial, though market doesn’t seems falling below 6025 and can hold this levels and on upside if this phenomena continues then expiry seems around 6130-40 level.

In continuation of y’day’s view (above) now 5930 i.e. aprx 50 points downside is on card which you can say completion of correction and then again some buying will come in.

Opening – Seems flat and market to wait for further direction. An attempt to go above 6010 or say to hit 6030 is possible.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM followed the trend and closed below 301, but it can not be considered as the regular close as not single stock there which is not lost in this free fall. So if mkt remains flat or rebound, TM to rebound on previous levels.

DLF –

DLF Ltd has announced that the Equity Issuance Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company in its meeting held on May 11, 2013 has finalised May 14, 2013 as the Issue opening and closing date. Further, the Floor Price has been finalised at Rs. 222/- per equity share with Price band of Rs. 222/- to Rs. 233/- per Equity Share.

View – Probably it should hold 228-233 levels, even if it goes down will rebound, as you can see 222 is the base price with range 222-233 so it may remain in the range.

Lupin

North America is the largest pharmaceutical market for the drug firms of the world. And the importance of this market has been highlighted by the quarterly numbers posted by Indian pharmaceutical giants.

For Lupin, revenues from the US market grew a staggering 33 percent  which pushed overall net sales up 35 percent, and led to profits more-than-doubling to Rs 408 crore. And though its Indian business grew 24 percent in FY13, the big boost over the year still came from the US where a 47-percent growth in revenue was driven by the launch of 10 new products.

The stock surged to a 52-week high of over Rs 735 per share especially after the company said the performance was sustainable. Kamal Sharma, MD, Lupin says, "Cumulatively, costs came down by about 3 percent. I hope we will be able to maintain this level and improve further. In this particular quarter and year, our EBITDA margin, which was around 21 percent last year, is over 24 percent this year. The 6-percent improvement on our base of Rs 9,600-crore has resulted in a substantial boost in performance."

Lupin to fall a bit in next 2-3 days say around 785+ levels to again below 765 level then again it can take a pick up.

IndusInd Bank-

On charts it seems to reached in Over Bought zone but it seems can move a bit up more from here a day or two and then probably stock will be corrected. 14 & 15 May is important for this stock. It has strong rally from 390 to 500 in few sessions, so when it comes to correction stock may see around 460-470 level i.e. not a big correction and from these levels one can make long position.

Bank of Baroda -

The Bank of Baroda scrip slipped 1.7% at Rs 691 on Monday after the public sector lender Q4 FY13 net profit declined 32% to Rs. 10.29 billion as against Rs. 15.18 billion in the same period last year. The number came in below IIFL’s expectations of Rs. 10.35 billion.

Reliance Power –

Reliance Power Ltd has posted a net profit of Rs. 5139.30 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs. 3108.60 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012.

Total Income has decreased from Rs. 5318.50 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 2508.50 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013.

For the consolidated period, the Group has posted a net profit after taxes, Minority Interest and share of Profit / (Loss) of Associates of Rs. 10114.60 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs. 8667.80 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 27667.80 million for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 52837.70 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013.

View – If market rebound then Rel Power will also gain, once can bet with 80CE or 85CE, but remember market support is needed else you know ADAG come first when it comes to sell.

Cairn India –

According to reports, Cairn India plans to drill 48 wells at a cost of less than US$ 100 mn on the Mangalaoilfield in the prolific Rajasthan block.

Cairn reportedly told the Management Committee that the drilling programme has been approved by its partner state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC).

The MC had previously approved a US$ 2.367 bn field development plan for Mangala, to produce a maximum of 150,000 barrels of oil per day (7.5 million tonnes a year) till 2020.

The new wells would be within the approved FDP cost of USD 2.367 bn, media report said.

View – If market support, Cairn to rise gradually, people with short to mid term view can bet for 8-12% rise.

IT Infra Sector –

The Indian IT infrastructure market, comprising of server, storage and networking equipment, will total $2.1 billion in 2013, growing 9.7 percent compared to 2012, according to Gartner, Inc.

Gartner analysts are providing the latest outlook on the Indian data center market during the Gartner Infrastructure, Operations and Data Center Summit, which is taking place here through May 14th.

(Source: IIFL.com)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TV18 – Bought @28.5 TG 34+ SL 25.5 (Qty 1K)

(Exited at 30)

DLF 250CE – Bought @4.25 TG 7.5+ SL 2.5 (Qty 1 Lot)

(SL hit @2.5)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 56,050)

May 2013 - +3000 + 1500 TV18 profit – 1750 DLF loss = +2750

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 1,10,950)

May 2013 - +6000

Today’s MG Mantra –

Wait and watch, Nifty needs to close above 6030 else another 50 point downside is there say around 5930 is on card.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Have a Profitable day – MG