Morning Bells (05 Jul 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Expectation is injurious to… Health & Heart.

It was a great clue but we just failed to take benefit, I was a bit confident about Thursday’s (exactly 2 days) green ending and we discussed it on Wednesday on FB. Well today I also expect green to continue at least till slag hours.

Well, a sudden bout of buying in IT, FMCG, telecom, realty, oil and gas and auto stocks gave reason to cheer the market. Its also a good sign that Nifty closed above its 200DMA. I am enjoying this moment as specially this time FIIs are finding hard to keep ball in their court. So may be a small time story like what FIIs did with Indian market in past quite a few time, this time, same can be repeated by DIIs. So lets watch.

The markets opened with a positive gap in early trade and managed to maintain its momentum in the first half. However, benchmark indices got a whipping after Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao said the central bank was not looking to protect any particular level of exchange rate but will iron out volatility.

But soon strong European and Asian markets lifted sentiment in the second-half.

New Banking Licence –

The 26 applicants for new bank licences in India face tough requirements that are likely to lead to only a limited number receiving licences and developing into substantial banks, Fitch Ratings says.

The central bank's objective to address financial inclusion places heavy demands on profitability and capital, and is likely to lengthen the time it takes for a successful applicant to establish a presence.

Gainers –

Reliance Infrastructure, HCL Technologies, ITC, Tata Power, BPCL, TCS, Tata Motors, ACC, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.

Losers -

BHEL, Tata Steel, Sesa Goa, Cipla, Axis Bank, PowerGrid, Bajaj Auto, Ranbaxy, Maruti and M&M lost out.

Sectoral –

The banking index was up 0.5%, rebounding smartly from its previous day’s losses. The gainers include Bank of India (2.5%), Yes Bank (1.5%) and IndusInd Bank (1.2%)

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

ECB holds rates -

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday and will try to reassure investors rattled by new turmoil in Europe and the US Federal Reserve's plans to begin winding up its stimulus.

The ECB met against a backdrop of political crisis in Portugal that pushed its benchmark bond yields above 8 percent on Wednesday, a spike that stirred angst in financial markets already jittery after the Fed last month set out a plan to exit from its money-printing programme.

The tensions there, and in Greece, risk sapping confidence a year after ECB President Mario Draghi imposed some calm by vowing to do "whatever it takes" to save the currency.

Despite the tensions, the ECB left its main refinancing rate on hold at 0.5 percent and the deposit rate at zero, as was expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now all the cues are in front of us, ECB is over, Egypt came to a resolution and now RBI policy is on 30^th July. So just make small positions and exit with small amount is the best suggestion.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 3.84% and ended at 18.91 against previous close of 18.21.

FNO PCR was 0.97 against previous close 0.94.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 56 paisa and was trading at 60.22 against its previous close of 59.66.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1615.41 up 01.33 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty is closed above 200DMA, 5935 will again see some declines. As per current data upside seems capped around 5970. So if you are long SL should be 5740-50.

Opening – As per expectation, today we are also going to see GREEN.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Tata Powre –

Tata Power Solar, the leading Indian solar company, has won a prestigious 50 MW solar photovoltaic project from NTPC as part of their mandate to expand their renewable energy portfolio to 1,000MW by 2017.

The new flagship 50MW project, at Rajgarh, Madhya Pradesh, will double NTPC’s solar capacity. Once commissioned in March 2014, the project is expected to generate 78.66 million units (Kwh) of energy each year for MP Power Trading Company Ltd. for a state that runs annual peak deficit of 9.6% (per CEA, June 2013).

IDFC –

A Delhi district court has rejected the anticipatory bail plea of IDFC Capital CEO Tapasije Mishra in a case filed against him by a woman alleging sexual abuse, intimidation and breach of trust.

The complainant, a divorcee with a nine-year old son and a former air hostess with Emirates Airlines, in an FIR filed with the Vasant Kunj police station (New Delhi), had alleged that Mishra had sexual relations with her for the last three years while promising to marry her. Mishra then backtracked on his commitment, and his father (also named in the FIR) threatened the complainant with dire consequences unless she stayed away from him (Tapasije), she alleged.

Interesting to know –

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) ownership in consumer companies has risen steadily in the past three years and now it is at an all-time high.

Jubilant FoodWorks  -  almost 42%, Marico – above 30%, Godrej Consumer, Dabur, TTK Prestige, Colgate, United Spirits in all this companies FII stake is more than MSCI weight while in United Breweries, HUL and in Asian Paints FII ownership compared to the MSCI weight is substantially lower, in HUL, it is 10 percent lower. In ITC its also much lower.

In short, FII can affect above stocks where its exposure is higher and can affect less where its weight is lower.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Apollo Tyre – 62.5CE @2.75 SL 2 TG 4+ (Max 1 lot)

TRACK Today –

Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, Rcap, RIL, TM and Nifty call straddle.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Go for cautious approach after 1.30PM as weekend is there.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (04 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

When one door of happiness closes, another opens. But we look so long at the closed door that. We don’t see the one which is opened for us.

Nothing new to say today, all are repeated story. Market to play volatile in sync with global news (specially from US) and to act according to Rupee act.

As told profit booking at higher levels continue for second consecutive day, Indian equity market ended in the red, extending its losing streak to the second consecutive day. It started weak and continued that trend with the surfeit of negative news. Any signs of a pullback from lower levels were met with huge selling pressure.

The weakening rupee continued to play spoilsport by falling 90 paise in trade today. It slipped below the 60 per dollar mark after hitting an intra-day low of 60.44. This is the first time since June 27 that the Indian currency has fallen below the 60 level. On June 26, it touched an all-time low of 60.76 against the dollar.

Rupee – a sport spoil :

Its been long time when Rupee is playing with market sentiment. Experts are expecting further depreciation but then now I don’t see any major impact on market.

I have very few simple reasons, if you would have remember when Rupee started declining around 54-55 levels market reacted sharply around two years back, then it was accepted by market that Rupee can fall further. Same story is repeating here, now everybody is expecting Rupee to touch around 62-63 level, then what next?

Secondly Rupee depreciation and CAD disappointing FIIs, they have pull out majority of their investment, and limited fund is in free market, so another 150 pts aprx can be played at any time, again then what next?

So I think now participant will play stock specific and now pressure would be on defensive stock like FMCG and Pharma and IT (IT only if Rupee depreciate further or remain above 60)

Gainers –

Lupin, Jindal Steel, Sun Pharmaceutical, Ambuja Cement, ITC, HCL Technologies and Grasim were among the gainers.

Losers -

JP Associates, Bank of Baroda, IDFC, Punjab National Bank, Sesa Goa, Tata Steel, Tata Power, SBI, DLF, Hindalco and BPCL lost out.

Sectoral –

Among sectors, barring defensives like pharmaceuticals and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red. The top losers were realty, metals, consumer durables, oil and gas, power, and capital goods stocks.

Domestic Front –

Cabinet clears ordinance on Food Security Bill -

The Cabinet cleared the Ordinance on the National Food Security Bill on Wednesday, said reports.

Cabinet note on Ordinance was circulated to all ministers and the item has been listed for discussion on Thursday.

The Bill was tabled in the Budget session of Parliament, but could not be taken up for discussion.

The Bill, tabled in the Lok Sabha, promises legal entitlement for subsidised food to almost 800 million Indians, out of a total e stimated population of 1.2 billion, says media reports.

The bill will cover 67% of population and include 800 million people in the food security safety net.  

Global Front –

China Growth -

On the global front, China's services sector showed weak growth in June. The June services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53.9 from May's 54.3. It remained above the 50 level dividing expansion from contraction.

Crude –

Crude prices surged on account of political tensions in Egypt. The country, though not an oil producer, controls the Suez Canal. It is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes through which majority of the world's energy passes. Oil marketing companies witnessed intense selling pressure with stocks like BPCL, HPCL and IOC plummeting nearly 4%.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now week all eyes will be on ECB meet on interest rates and unemployment data from the US and Eurozone will be tracked closely. 

Now since rupee played sport spoil market will remain volatile and rangbound in a short term and investors are advised to focus on being invested in defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and information technology.

Interestingly Nifty has not broken earlier year’s lows or we have not gone beyond earlier year’s highs. This give sense that market will remain in the range but yes it would be highly volatile.

As warned repeatedly for a bullish trend Nifty need to close above 5935 for 2 successive days.

So what you will do in such a highly unpredictable and volatile market - In such volatile environment, investors can start building positions especially defensive and currency or accurately dollar-related stocks like technology or pharma.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 3.84% and ended at 18.91 against previous close of 18.21.

FNO PCR was 0.97 against previous close 0.94.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 56 paisa and was trading at 60.22 against its previous close of 59.66.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1615.41 up 01.33 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per y’day suggestion finally Nifty seen some decline when it attempt to breach 5900. Now DMAs have been changed. Now Nifty had to struggle around 5935 and trend changer level comes to 5975 around level. So if there’s nothing major bad news we may see some more positive moves.

5750 was on card and was suggested one day back. Nifty need to remain above this level to avoid panic selling pressure.

Opening – Don’t know what will happen but during the day had informed on FB that now next 2 sessions I am expecting flat to positive, so start could be flat to positive.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Oil India –

Oil India closed at Rs. 554.30 per share, down Rs. 12.15 or 2.1%, despite the company announcing plans to invest Rs. 120bn by 2017. The state-run oil major is looking to invest in various projects in the north-east involving expansion of exploration work and diversification of business.

Tata Powre –

Tata Power ended weak at Rs. 82.80, down Rs. 3.9 or 4.5%. The company plans to tie-up funds for the 95 MW South Africa's Tsitsikamma wind energy project, estimated to cost about Rs 1,750 crore.

HUL –

I am strongly expecting HUL to a level of Rs 545-Rs 550 from Rs 587 currently since past expiry (I have expressed my thought on FB too), post buyback offer as quarterly earnings may also disappoint. 

New Banking Licence : 10 companies are hopeful to get nod from RBI –

With 26 public and private sector companies applying for bank licences, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that there was no ceiling on the number of entities which can be permitted to operate a bank.

"I don't think there is a ceiling. I don't think there is a number in mind. It all depends upon how many applicants are eligible applicants. The fact that somebody applies doesn't mean he is an eligible applicant," he told PTI in an interview.

Top Contender -

Following are the top contender – JM Financial, Bajaj Financial Services, L&T Fin. Holdings, Reliance Capital, LIC Housing Finance, Religare Enterprise, PFC, Aditya Birla Nuvo, IDFC, SREI Infra,

Among above all companies like L&T Finance Holdings , IDFC  have a good chance of getting the licence as these are extremely respectful names in terms of governance and experience, says experts.

Interesting to know –

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) ownership in consumer companies has risen steadily in the past three years and now it is at an all-time high.

Jubilant FoodWorks  -  almost 42%, Marico – above 30%, Godrej Consumer, Dabur, TTK Prestige, Colgate, United Spirits in all this companies FII stake is more than MSCI weight while in United Breweries, HUL and in Asian Paints FII ownership compared to the MSCI weight is substantially lower, in HUL, it is 10 percent lower. In ITC its also much lower.

In short, FII can affect above stocks where its exposure is higher and can affect less where its weight is lower.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Today’s Call –

IDFC – As told market remain RED, so we haven’t entered IDFC.

Apollo Tyre – 62.5CE @2.75 SL 2 TG 4+ (Max 1 lot)

TRACK –

ICICI and Yes Bank, while avoid PSU Banks.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Book at least part profit on longs and wait for Nifty to break 5935.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (03 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

When one door of happiness closes, another opens. But we look so long at the closed door that. We don’t see the one which is opened for us.

Profit booking gripped the benchmark indices Y’day after three days of wonderful rally. Y’day many time the bulls tried to bounce back, a deluge of selling pressure stemmed their tide. Negative vibes from the European equity market also proved to be a dampener.

Gainers –

Ranbaxy, Lupin, GAIL India, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, ACC, IDFC, Sesa Goa, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank and JP Associates were among the gainers.

Losers -

Jindal Steel, DLF, Axis Bank, Reliance Infrastructure, Tata Power, Punjab National Bank, NMDC, NTPC, Maruti and ONGC were among the major losers.

Sectoral –

Realty, auto, oil and gas, capital goods and banking stocks were under pressure, among mid and small caps also seen selling pressure.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now week all eyes will be on ECB meet on interest rates and unemployment data from the US and Eurozone will be tracked closely. 

As discussed during the day, I was expecting a sudden bout of selling pressure after 2 and same took place. Now question is whether it was a correction? Most of experts feel that Tuesday’s correction can be considered as consolidation after such a big upmove in 3 days.

This means bias for the short-term remains positive. This also means uptrend could be revived this week, so let’s swim with flow.

Actually the positive outlook for the market has been further strengthened by decisions made by the government, which is the hike diesel price. 

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 0.66% and ended at 18.21 against previous close of 18.09.

FNO PCR was 0.94 against previous close 1.00.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 14 paisa and was trading at 59.66 against its previous close of 59.52.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1618.98 up 04.02 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per y’day suggestion finally Nifty seen some decline when it attempt to breach 5900. Now DMAs have been changed. Now Nifty had to struggle around 5935 and trend changer level comes to 5975 around level. So if there’s nothing major bad news we may see some more positive moves.

Opening – Can continue y’day’s decline, but soon bulls can make attempt to turn it positive.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Telecom Sector : New booster injection is here –

Telecom Commission, an inter-ministerial body, on Tuesday approved to hike foreign direct investment limit for telecom sector to 100 percent from 74 percent currently. (-CNBC TV18)

Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is likely to soon move a cabinet note for 100 percent FDI in telecom services.

At present, FDI limit in the sector is 74 percent and 49 percent can be invested through automatic route. But to take it upto 74 percent, Foreign Investment Permission Board (FIPB) nod is required. In case 100 percent FDI is approved, 49 percent investment would still be allowed through automatic route.

The idea behind increasing FDI limit in telecom sector is to help industry get fresh funds to lower financial burden. Reacting to the news of increase in FDI limit KPMG said that 100 percent FDI will help telecom companies to bring down debts. However the research firm does not see improvement in valuation of telecom companies on this regard. (-MoneyControl.com)

Rcom –

On Monday the mobile carrier said it had repaid foreign currency loans worth about USD 1.2 billion.

Falling debt levels and two recent separate deals to share mobile towers and fibre optic with Reliance Industries Ltd's telecom unit have boosted Reliance Communications shares.

Looking at the change in outstanding positions one should expect more upside in stock.

HDFC –

The Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), investment firm Temasek and Oman's State General Reserve Fund have committed to invest USD 200 million in a real estate fund run by Indian mortgage lender HDFC , a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The investment is in a USD 500 million real estate private equity fund launched late last year by HDFC Property Fund, founded by Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC), India's biggest mortgage lender, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the information is not public.

HDFC Property Fund declined to comment, GIC and Temasek did not respond to an email and State General Reserve Fund could not be contacted immediately. (-MoneyControl.com)

New Banking Licence : 10 companies are hopeful to get nod from RBI –

With 26 public and private sector companies applying for bank licences, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that there was no ceiling on the number of entities which can be permitted to operate a bank.

"I don't think there is a ceiling. I don't think there is a number in mind. It all depends upon how many applicants are eligible applicants. The fact that somebody applies doesn't mean he is an eligible applicant," he told PTI in an interview.

Top Contender -

Following are the top contender – JM Financial, Bajaj Financial Services, L&T Fin. Holdings, Reliance Capital, LIC Housing Finance, Religare Enterprise, PFC, Aditya Birla Nuvo, IDFC, SREI Infra,

Among above all companies like L&T Finance Holdings , IDFC  have a good chance of getting the licence as these are extremely respectful names in terms of governance and experience, says experts.

Interesting to know –

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) ownership in consumer companies has risen steadily in the past three years and now it is at an all-time high.

Jubilant FoodWorks  -  almost 42%, Marico – above 30%, Godrej Consumer, Dabur, TTK Prestige, Colgate, United Spirits in all this companies FII stake is more than MSCI weight while in United Breweries, HUL and in Asian Paints FII ownership compared to the MSCI weight is substantially lower, in HUL, it is 10 percent lower. In ITC its also much lower.

In short, FII can affect above stocks where its exposure is higher and can affect less where its weight is lower.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Today’s Call –

Buy IDFC 140CE around/below 3 SL 2.25 TG 5+ (remember market sentiment should be positive else don’t enter)

TRACK –

ICICI, JPA, Yes Bank, RCom

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

Since most of you haven’t entered CG, GAIL & BOI Calls, I am not considering it under Blog PL while trio made approx 25K profit in past 3 days.

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Book at least part profit on longs and wait for Nifty to break 5935.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.