Good Morning
Friends.
Thought of the day
– If your mind tells you one thing and your heart tells you another, before you
do anything first you decide whether you have a better mind or a better heart.
After rallying for
three consecutive trading sessions, the Nifty took a breather on Wednesday.
Despite a gap up opening, the markets were unable to hold on to its gains and
closed off the day’s high, tracking weakness in the European markets.
Now today
is the day of TCS, i.e. to watch how market reacts on TCS better than expected
Q4 Nos after decline in RIL instead of better than expected Q4 Nos. –
FY13 net profit came in at Rs 13,941
crore, up 30.9% YoY.
Revenues
of the country's largest software company came in up 2.24% QoQ and 23.9% YoY at
Rs 16,430 crore. The revenue figure is as per International Financial Reporting
Standards.
It
reported a 28.8% YoY rise in FY13 revenues at Rs 62,989 crore.
Q4
earnings before interest and tax or EBIT margins came in at 26.5%.
Volume
growth for the period stood 4.4% QoQ.
Other
income surged 100% at Rs 442 crore as compared to Rs 221 crore in Q3.
Gainers –
Sun Pharma, Sterlite Industries, Bharti Airtel, Maruti
Suzuki, ICICI Bank, BHEL, Hindalco Industries, Hero MotoCorp, NTPC, Tata Motors
and Coal India were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty.
Losers –
RIL, Wipro, Infosys, TCS, ONGC, Tata Power, Tata Steel,
HDFC Bank, Jindal Steel, L&T and Gail India were among the major
losers in Sensex and Nifty.
Sectoral –
Among sectors, PSU, capital goods, consumer durables, auto,
metal, power, banks, FMCG, realty and healthcare ended with gains. The losers
pack was led by IT and oil and gas.
Domestic
Front –
RBI Policy –
Now everyone is talking about rate cut during RBI policy on May 3rd.
But as per data at 5.96%, the wholesale price index-based inflation for March
has grown at the slowest rate in more than three years. It is significantly
lower than the 7.69% recorded in March last year and 6.84% in February 2013.
Based on this data, Care Ratings feels the Reserve Bank will be constrained
from pursuing a rate cut in its forthcoming Monetary Policy meet on May 3.
Global
Front –
GOLD Bubble –
Precious metals have witnessed an unprecedented selling rout in
terms of magnitude and duration. The yellow metal has lost whopping
US$240/ounce over last three trading sessions and registered a low of
US$1,322/ounce, the lowest level since September 2011. The havoc in the
commodity markets has compelled CME Group and Shanghai Gold Exchange to increase
margins on gold futures. One cannot ignore the fact that gold prices were due
for a correction, considering the unabated “Bull Run” over the last 10-11
years.
Cyprus story: It is widely reported that Cyprus may sell some 400mn euros
worth of gold to partially finance its bailout. At the prevalent price levels,
400mn euros are equivalent to 10 to 12 tons of gold. Rumors mills were
churning reports that the gold liquidation plan by the Cypriot government is
weighing on the prices. Although, we take this theory with a pinch of salt,
as Cyprus gold holdings are at minuscule 13.9 tons, which accounts for just
0.045% of global central bank gold holdings. This is immaterial, if compared
with global central bank’s net purchase of 535 tons of gold during 2012. Gold
has trumped over other currencies as the reserve asset of choice for central
banks looking to diversify away from US dollar and Euro. Global central banks
have remained net buyers of gold since 2010. There were concerns that a gold
sell-off by Cyprus could set precedence for other debt-ridden nations. Troubled
Eurozone countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain could be compelled
to sell their gold holdings. However, these nations have meager gold reserves,
with the combined gold holdings among the mentioned nations amounting to 780
tons, or just 2.5% of total world gold holdings. We infer that even in the
worst case scenario, if Cyprus resort to running down its gold reserves, other
central banks might not follow suit. These countries are subject to the Central
Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) which limits central bank gold sales. This can be
explained by the fact sales under the CBGA throughout 2012 just amounted to 5.5
tons, where Germany only sold some quantum for the purpose of minting
commemorative gold coins. Other CBGA members
remained completely inactive in regard with exercising their right to
sell their gold reserves. Central banks outside the purview of CBGA also
refrained from selling gold reserves, except minor sales by the bank of Mexico
for the motive of coin-minting.
(IIFL.com)
===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================
Well now y’day was the day of RIL, RIL also helped
to pull Nifty up. Now today is the day of TCS.
As per most of experts, though RIL result is inline
but it would be a non event for market and wont cheer the market.
The
INDIA VIX on NSE was up 0.68% and
ended at 16.36 against previous close of 16.25.
FNO
PCR is 1.13 against previous close 1.04.
(PCR
suggesting we are heading towards weakness)
Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 6 paisa and was trading at 54.21 against its
previous close of 54.15.
S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1551.82 up 22.75 then its
previous close at the time of writing M Bells.
RESULT CALNEDER
–
16 Apr – RIL
17 Apr – HCL, TCS, Yes Bank
18 Apr – Essar Ports, IndusInd Bank,
19 Apr – Oberoi Realty, Wipro
22 Apr – Cairn India
======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK
========================
The key 200-day
Moving Average has once again proved a key support. Nifty bounced back after
breaching this vital level on April 4. Since then, the Nifty, which was looking
technically weak some times back now comes to 60:40 chances band. Now it would
be interesting to see whether Nifty sustain above this level or not.
I also emphasize
here, right now Nifty is just in HNS (Head and Shoulder) pattern, though one
need to study it very carefully with various DMA. Lets have look on DMA
calculations –
The 200-day Moving
Average is a popular long-term technical indicator used by intra-day or
short-term watchers to analyse price trends. In lay terms, it is the average
closing price of a share over the last 200 days.
The 200-day moving
average is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that is
technically healthy and one that is not. Moreover, the percentage of stocks
trading above their 200-day moving average helps determine the overall health
of the market.
Most traders use
moving averages to determine the profitable entry and exit points in specific
securities as it indicates the ‘trend’ or the overall direction. It also
provides useful support and resistance points and can be put into play by even
novice traders.
Now its seen
technically that Nifty may see some hurdle between 5720-5750 or more precisely
be cautious above 5700.
So I personally feel this 5720-5755-5805 range is danger, as per chart
patter may be Nifty moves up a bit down then attempt for 5800 but till 5915 is
no taken out, I wont bet for mid to long term, it may slip any moment for much
lower levels.
Intraday Resistance –
5787 – 5759 – 5724 and Support – 5661 – 5633 – 5597 (Pivot 5696)
Opening – Seems uncertain, as per sharp decline in global market,
we should open weak but TCS can cheer and can restrict fall. Lets see.
======================== STOCK OUTLOOK
======================
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
Stocks which hit a 52-week low
during the week were Banco Products, SAIL, Ferro Alloys, Godfrey Phil, Hind
Zinc and Sesa Goa.
HCL –
Shares of HCL Technologies ended
1.8% lower at Rs749 per share. Its Q3 FY13 PAT rose 7.8% QoQ at Rs 10.40 bn. Q3
sales came in at Rs 64.25 bn, up 2.4% QoQ.
RIL –
Reliance Industries slipped 3% in trade today to Rs778 per share
despite posting higher than expected Q4 results. The company’s fourth quarter
net profit rose 32% to a higher-than-expected Rs 55.89 bn.
BPCL –
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd has reportedly said that it is
planning to invest Rs 325bn to expand its refining capacity to 47.5 mt in the
next three-four years.
The company will invest Rs 100bn on its Numaligarh refinery to
expand its capacity from three mt to nine mt, says report.
BPCL owns 61.65% in the Numaligarh Refinery.
In Mumbai refinery, the capacity would go up from 12 mt to 14 mt
through change of its crude oil distillation unit.
TCS –
TCS is
planning to hire 45,000 employees in FY14.
Human
Resources:
“We have
added, trained and integrated over 69,000 professionals during 2012-13. With
business demand continuing to be robust, we have made almost 25,000 fresh
offers on engineering campuses for trainees who will join us from the second
quarter of this fiscal year.” said Ajoy Mukherjee, Executive Vice President,
Head, Global Human Resources, Tata Consultancy Services. “Our efforts to
increase retention by engaging with our employees and offering them a
progressive career path are paying dividends with IT attrition rates falling
further to below ten per cent.”
HCL -
HCL Technologies Ltd Q3 PAT stood at Rs10.40bn, up 7.8% QoQ.
Its Q3 sales at Rs64.25bn, up 2.4% QoQ. The company has added 37 new clients in
Q3.
The company has announced that the Board of Directors of the
Company at its meeting held on April 17, 2013, inter alia, has declared an
interim dividend of Rs. 2/- per equity share of
face value of Rs. 2/- each of the Company.
The record date of April 23, 2013 for payment of said interim
dividend has been confirmed by the Board of Directors. The payment date of the
said interim dividend shall be April 30, 2013.
L&T -
According to reports, Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is close to
winning $800-mn contract from Saudi Aramco for building its upstream processing
facilities for the Midyan field,
A formal announcement is expected in the next few days, report
said.
Reports stated that L&T has been increasingly focusing on its
international businesses to improve its topline.
Yes Bank –
Total Income has increased from Rs. 20514.50 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 26670.30 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2013.
The
Board of Directors of YES BANK Ltd. took on record the Q4FY13 and (audited)
FY13 results at its meeting held in Mumbai today.
The bank posted a net profit of Rs. 3621.50
mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs.
2718.00 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2012.
Total Income has increased from Rs. 20514.50 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 26670.30 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2013.
Bajaj
Auto -
Country's third largest two-wheeler
maker Bajaj Auto today said it has raised the prices of its entire range of
motorcycles by up to Rs 500 due to rise in logistics and other expenditures.
"We have increased prices between Rs 300 to Rs 500,effective
April 12 to take care of increased logistics and other costs," Bajaj Auto
President (Motorcycle Business) KSrinivas told PTI.
====================
OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t
shows strength.
===============
INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
Mahindra
Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)
(Start
exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)
============
PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw
our attention)
MG
Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +5750
Billionaire
Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr = +7900
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Don’t follow first our trend, actual
trend will be only after that.
============
Join MG on FaceBook ============
Please make sure you need to send a message on
FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown
person.
Have a Profitable day – MG
