Tuesday 30 July 2013

Morning Bells (31 July 13)


Good Morning Friends.

Life is full of problems… problems are not permanent but life is permanent, so face the problems with confidence.

Since very long time I am unable to understand RBI’s move to curb Rupee fall. Because my view is very clear instead of lots of efforts Rupee is depreciating and RBI wont be able to stop it unless there’s nothing on fundamental ground. Rupee is again returning to 60 level and what we lost is – to save Rupee we lost both, i.e. Govt. couldn’t saved Rupee and Indian market. Major reason is currency is not domestic in nature so will be in the range of 58-62 in near term.

RBI -
Well it was again a terrifying Tuesday and indices plunged sharply. The apex bank kept key lending rates steady, focusing on stabilising the rupee rather than boosting growth. With today's fall, the market has declined for the fifth consecutive trading session. The Nifty has closed below the psychological 5,800 mark for the first time since July 4.

In 2013 alone, the central bank had cut rates three times by a quarter of a percentage point each. However, it kept rates steady at its last meeting on June 17 citing concerns over the rupee's weakness against the dollar.

Market participants seem to have ignored the central bank’s statement on liquidity tightening. Assaying India Inc's concerns on tightening liquidity conditions, RBI said the recent liquidity tightening measures are aimed at checking undue volatility in the foreign exchange market and will be rolled back in a calibrated manner as stability is restored. It has not listed milestones or explained what will be its benchmarks for the roll back. This is sure to fuel uncertainty in the forex market.

Retail FID policy today –
Cabinet is likely to take up the multibrand retail foreign direct investment (FDI) policy on Thursday. Sources say that the Cabinet could relax some FDI norms for multibrand retail.

Gainers –

Losers -

Sectoral –
The decline in the stock market was led by oil and gas, realty, power, auto, banking, FMCG and metals stocks. Even midcap and smallcap stocks saw immense selling pressure. Only IT stocks ended with smart gains amid a weakening rupee.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Market turned downtrend after RBI disappointed, though it was inline buy cutting down further growth forecast by RBI played big and signalled that theirs is no relief in near term.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down by 0.77% and ended at 18.12 against previous close of 18.25.

FNO PCR was 0.98 against previous close 0.95.

Indian Rupee – Rupee again moved above 60 and declined by 1.05 paisa and was trading at 40.47 against its previous close of 59.42.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1688.52 up 3.19 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –
31 July – BhartiAirtel, HCL, ICICI, KTK Bank, United Spirit

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
Here series of next supports  5750 / 5660-80 / 5600 / 5545-65 / 5477. In this 5750, 5545-65 & 5477 are seems good support and Nifty can show some strength here.

Opening – Opening seems flat, as Nifty (S) closed near its strong support 5750.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

BhartiAirtel –
Country's largest telecom operator Bharti Airtel will declare its first quarter numbers on Wednesday. Analysts on an average expect the consolidated profit after tax to rise 27.8 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 650 crore. In fact, analysts expect the profit in the range of Rs 320 to Rs 970 crore for the quarter.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to July 13 (Total 59,600)
Aug 13 = +00

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,30,450)
Aug 13 = +00

Today’s MG Mantra
For longs SL is 5880

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============
Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Morning Bells (30 July 13)



Good Morning Friends.

Never hate those people who are jealous of you but respect their jealousy because they are the ones who think that you are better than them.

Y’day was a good day for me as when you were trading online I was only at BSE for a day. Will post few pics once will transfer to notebook.

Well, it was 4th straight day of weakness in the market, and Nifty is closed below its 200 Daily Moving Average which is not good sign for short to midterm.

The fall was led by defensive stocks like Hindustan Unilever and ITC. HUL fell sharply after sales volumes declined for the fifth consecutive quarter. The company said the slowdown in growth may last until the end of the current fiscal.

ITC continued to remain under pressure post its Q1 FY14 results on July 25. The stock fell 3.8% in trade today.

RBI’s Day –
RBI have take some liquidity tightening measures recently to check the rupee's volatility. RBI in its macro-economic report on Monday said "Recent liquidity tightening measures taken by the Reserve Bank to curb volatility in the exchange rate provide, at best, some breathing time. This strategy will succeed if reinforced by structural reforms to reduce the current account deficit (CAD) and step up savings and investment."

Signalling a policy change, a day ahead of its monetary policy review meet, RBI hinted that financial stability is now on its radar and that growth has taken a back seat as of now.

Gainers –
Jindal Steel, Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, Sun Pharmaceutical, Hero MotoCorp and M&M were among major gainers.

Losers -
IDFC, JP Associates, Hindalco, Ambuja Cements, Sesa Goa, Hindustan Unilever, BPCL and Coal India lost out shine in y’day’s trade.

Sectoral –
Interest rate sensitives continued to remain under pressure with the BSE banking and realty indices falling 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively. Even the midcap and smallcap indices declined by 1.2% and 1%, respectively. The only saving grace was the IT (up 0.65%) and auto indices (up 0.52%).

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Apart from corporate earnings, Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy and monsoon session of parliament will provide the next big trigger for the market.

The INDIA VIX on NSE shot up by 8.76% and ended at 18.25 against previous close of 16.78.

FNO PCR was 0.95 against previous close 1.12.

Indian Rupee – Rupee again declined by 37 paisa and was trading at 59.42 against its previous close of 59.05.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1687.95 down 3.70 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –
29 July – Allahbad Bank, Arvind, IDFC, JPA, MCX, RelCapital, Syndicate Bank, SesaGoa
30 July – Dr. Reddy, FinTech, Havells, Jindal Steel, NTPC, Rel Infra, Sun Pharma
31 July – BhartiAirtel, HCL, ICICI, KTK Bank, United Spirit

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
Here series of next supports  5750 / 5660-80 / 5600 / 5545-65 / 5477. In this 5750, 5545-65 & 5477 are seems good support and Nifty can show some strength here.

Opening – Opening seems flat, though everybody expecting RBI policy is an non event so volatility is on card.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Jet Airways –
Jet Airways closed at Rs. 408, up almost 3% or Rs. 11.65, on Monday in anticipation of the the Foreign Investment Promotion Board clearing the Jet-Etihad deal. The Rs. 20.58bn deal will see the Abu Dhabi-based carrier picking up A 24% stake in Jet Airways.

RIL & ONGC – signed MOU
Investors in RIL and ONGC remained unperturbed by a memorandum of understanding signed by the two companies to explore the possibility of sharing RIL’s infrastructural facility on the East Coast. RIL closed flat at Rs. 886 while ONGC ended down 1.8% at Rs. 298 per share.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to July 13 (Total 59,600)
Aug 13 = +00

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,30,450)
Aug 13 = +00

Today’s MG Mantra
For longs SL is 5880

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============
Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.

Sunday 28 July 2013

Morning Bells (29 July 13)


Good Morning Friends.

There are millions of people in this world, then why you born? Because God is expecting something from you which is not possible by millions. Be special in your life.

On Tuesday after RBI announced additional liquidity tightening measures to contain excessive speculation and volatility in the foreign exchange market. It reduced the liquidity adjustment facility for each bank from 1% of total deposits to 0.5% of its own net demand and time liabilities, thus limiting bank's access to borrowed funds. The limit will come into force with immediate effect and continue till further notice.

In another measure, it asked banks to maintain their average cash reserve ratio at 99% of the daily requirement as against earlier 70%. This measure would come into effect after a fortnight.

Gainers –

Losers -

Sectoral –
On weekly basis - capital goods ended down 10.2%, metal (-6.7%), banking (-4.7%), oil & gas (-3.2%) were the major losers. The only sector to end the week in the positive was pharmaceuticals up 2% week-on-week.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –
In economic news, China’s manufacturing weakened further in July, signaling the worst of the nation’s slowdown has yet to be reached. The PMI reading of 47.7 was less than estimated and if confirmed in the final report August 1, would be the lowest in 11 months. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. To compound matters, China has ordered more than 1,400 companies in 19 industries to cut excess production capacity this year, part of efforts to shift toward slower, more-sustainable economic growth.

Japan’s exports rose for a fourth straight month in June as a weak yen made the nation’s products more competitive and shipments to the European Union rebounded. Exports gained 7.4% from a year earlier.

Eurozone Purchase Managers' Index rose to an 18-month high in July. The PMI rose for the fourth successive month, up from 48.7 in June to 50.4.

US factories received more orders for automobiles and machinery in June, pointing to a pickup in manufacturing that will help propel the world’s largest economy in the second half of 2013.

US Jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 343,000 in the week ended July 20 from a revised 336,000 in the prior period. Consumer confidence rose last week as an improving job market helped make Americans the least pessimistic about the economy in more than five years.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Apart from corporate earnings, Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy and monsoon session of parliament will provide the next big trigger for the market.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 0.36% and ended at 16.78 against previous close of 16.72.

FNO PCR was 1.12 against previous close XX.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gain by 7 paisa and was trading at 59.04 against its previous close of 59.11.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1691.65 up 1.40 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –
29 July – Allahbad Bank, Arvind, IDFC, JPA, MCX, RelCapital, Syndicate Bank, SesaGoa
30 July – Dr. Reddy, FinTech, Havells, Jindal Steel, NTPC, Rel Infra, Sun Pharma
31 July – BhartiAirtel, HCL, ICICI, KTK Bank, United Spirit

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
We were talking about 5477 last series but somehow Nifty shown some upmove and again failed to breach 6100 level. Now sentiments are weak and there could be possibilities to retest that level once RBI policy meet hype is over.

Bank Nifty was the major losers and hopefully to sustain 10,000 level.

Opening – Seems on positive note as nobody can take risk and hoping for a miracle from RBI, so today could be the day where one needs to book profit and exit their longs. Bulls can attempt to close 5940-50.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to July 13 (Total 59,600)
Aug 13 = +00

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,30,450)
Aug 13 = +00

Today’s MG Mantra
For longs SL is 5880

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============
Join MG on FB for live update – www.facebook.com/mudraguru.india

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader” as currently I am not accepting FB request from unknown person.