Friday 13 September 2013

Morning Bells (13 Sept 13)

Morning Bells (13 Aug 13)
Good Morning Friends.

Talents will take you to high position in your career but behaviour will help to maintain the high position in others mind.

Today’s big news is IIP & CPI which came unexpected.

Provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for August 2013 on point to point basis (August 2013 over August 2012) is 9.52% as compared to 9.64% (final) for the previous month of July 2013.

While India's industrial production jumped an unexpected 2.6 percent in July after contracting for two straight months, government data showed on Thursday, good news for Asia's third-largest economy as it tries to emerge from a deep slump. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected output to shrink an annual 0.8 percent in July after a 2.2 percent contraction in June. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 76 percent of industrial production, rose 3.0 percent from a year earlier, the statistics office said.

Well, after enjoying a fast and furious run, the Indian equity market have cooled off snapping a five-day winning streak. Participants preferred to book some profits ahead of the July Industrial Production and August CPI for Combined, Rural, and Urban which was scheduled to announce after market hours and experts’ poll had created some fear.

Diesel Price hike –
Oil secretary reportedly said that government will decide on increasing the retail prices of diesel and cooking gas (LPG) in a few weeks.

The government is considering a Rs3 to 5 hike in the price of diesel, which accounts for more than 40 percent of fuel use, says report.

While Petrol prices may be cut by as much as Rs 1-1.50 per litre next week on falling international oil rates and appreciating rupee but a one-time hike in diesel and possibly LPG rates is still on the cards.

DOMESTIC FRONT –
Finally government has approved a proposal to invest $ 4.3 bn in World Bank bonds.

This move which will help India to secure additional funding from the multilateral agency for infrastructure projects, according to reports.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would invest in the bonds floated by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

The bonds would be of various tenures and the RBI would get return on investment, says report.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market to go in consolidation phase here and that could be healthy for it. On upside, it was wonderful rally of 700+ points so upside seems 5950-6000, we also have big events next so better to sit on cash or just make intraday positions. If Fed announce tapering on its bond buying program then we may see sharp reaction and all global market will be part of it, even currency too.

I see some longs building up ahead of both events and then pressure build up around the event day.

EVENTS –
After CPI and IIP now August trade data and rail freight traffic data are among the other data to be announced next week.

Raghuram Rajan's maiden RBI monetary policy on September 20 will be closely watched by investors.

Fed policy meeting next week (17&18 Sept) is also another important event to be watched out for next week as the US Federal Reserve is set to make public its further plans on US$85bn monthly bond-buying programme.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Infy –
Infosys BPO today announced that it has been selected by AkzoNobel, a leading global paint and coatings company and a major producer of specialty chemicals, to transform their finance and accounting (F&A) processes to deliver higher operational efficiencies and performance.

JPA –
Aditya Birla Group firm UltraTech Cement today said it will acquire Gujarat cement unit of Jaypee Cement Corp for Rs 3,800 crore.

Talking about the company's debt, Executive Chairman of Jaypee group Manoj Gaur said monetization of Gujarat cement plant is the first step towards debt reduction, which will go down by 15 percent post the deal with Ultratech.

Jaiprakash Associates shares were among the major losers of the day, tumbling 11 percent. The company sold its cement unit in Gujarat to UltraTech for Rs 3800 crore, but analysts say the Jaypee Group as a whole needs to do much more to meaningfully reduce its debt burden.

Real Estate –
Factors like tighter monetary policies by RBI, depressed domestic economic conditions, exodus of private equity funds, outflow of money from the property market for impending elections are converging after a decade setting a stage for a deep correction in Indian real estate.

CALL LOG –
TM – Some ppl booked profit while some exited with minor loss. SL hit 335.
Though it got penalty for fall in Nifty, still I guess it can move up to 350+

HDFC – Today HDFC can show strength, one can initiate call if found it below 810 or then around previous close for TG 840/855+ in near term.

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Thursday 12 September 2013

Morning Bells (12 Sept 13)

Morning Bells (12 Aug 13)
Good Morning Friends.

Agar koi hamare khane me zahar mila de to ooska fir bhi upchar he… magar agar koi kano me zahar ghol de to ooska koi upchar nahi he.

As discussed, after straight 4 session and terrific Tuesday it was expected some rest or profit booking. Today Nifty went down approx 60 points (informed during the day for 5830) and when it was 5830 again I had informed for a recovery and Nifty turned green and closes above 5900 mark. Strong gains were seen in banking and metal stocks.

Well what I strongly stated few days back is again coming to reality about our country’s debt structure, according to reports Govt. is planning to lend money from world bank and to my view is not right step. We already have enough debt in terms of FDI (yes those investment is like loan because when they will start taking back we all know how we go from 6200 to 5100)

Well here’s report - The cabinet will on Thursday consider a finance ministry proposal to borrow an additional USD 4.3 billion from an arm of the World Bank, according to a cabinet agenda document. Under the proposal India would borrow the money from the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), a World Bank subsidiary, according to the note seen by Reuters on Wednesday, which did not give more details. It was not immediately clear how quickly the money would reach India if approved, or the terms of such loans.

A World Bank spokeswoman said she could not immediately comment. The IBRD usually gives such loans for development and infrastructure programmes, which are often disbursed in tranches over a long period.

MARKET OUTLOOK –
In the near term, market movement is likely to be choppy as there are slew of important economic data, which are scheduled to be released. Industrial Production for July and CPI for Combined, Rural, and Urban for August will be released on September 12. While, August trade data and rail freight traffic data are among the other data to be announced.

The next trigger for the market is likely to be FOMC meet on September 17. Even Raghuram Rajan's maiden RBI monetary policy on September 20 will be closely watched by investors.

So as per current momentum Nifty may take a break somewhere between 5950-6000. If it breach 6010 level then chances are high for higher levels.

Banks may lose shine once Nifty reaches around 6000 level.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Tata Motors –
TM made good move from 291 to 350 and closed 340. If market goes positive then some steam still left here.

TM Call update - 380CE @4 and now keeping SL 335 in cash with TG 351+ and then to use trailing SL.

JPA –
Aditya Birla Group firm UltraTech Cement today said it will acquire Gujarat cement unit of Jaypee Cement Corp for Rs 3,800 crore. UltraTech Cement will acquire the Gujarat Cement Unit of Jaypee Cement Corp Gujarat Cement Unit comprises of an integrated cement unit at Sewagram and grinding unit at Wankbori, the company said in a statement. The combined capacity of both the divisions is 4.8 million tonnes along with 57.5 MW coal-based thermal power plant, limestone reserves of over 90 years at current capacity and a captive jetty at Sewagram.

Talking about the company's debt, Executive Chairman of Jaypee group Manoj Gaur said monetization of Gujarat cement plant is the first step towards debt reduction, which will go down by 15 percent post the deal with Ultratech.

Real Estate –
Factors like tighter monetary policies by RBI, depressed domestic economic conditions, exodus of private equity funds, outflow of money from the property market for impending elections are converging after a decade setting a stage for a deep correction in Indian real estate.

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Monday 9 September 2013

Morning Bells (10 Sept 13)


Good Morning Friends.

A truth – Apani zindagi ke kisi bhi din ko mat kosana kyonki Achchha din KHUSHIYAN lata he aur bura din TAZURBA, aur zindagi ke liye dono hi zaroori he.

So we are back after long weekend. Rajan effect boosted some sentiment in the market but now the week ahead the trend will be decided by currency movement against dollar, macroeconomic data and largely on FII investment trend. Beside currency movement participant would keep an eye on the movement of crude oil too.

Market will also witness volatility amid concerns over Syria. There is also rising speculation about hike in diesel prices.

In the trend deciding or to make sessions volatile many data are in the queue -
Data for industrial production and consumer price index (CPI) for July would be announced on Thursday.
RBI's monetary policy is due on September 20 and chances of rate cuts are very less.


Sectors that received large FDI inflows include hotels and tourism, pharmaceuticals, services, chemicals and construction. Most of the inflows came from Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands and the US.

Sectors that received large FDI inflows include hotels and tourism, pharmaceuticals, services, chemicals and construction. Most of the inflows came from Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands and the US.
On August 1, the government liberalised the FDI regime in about a dozen sectors, including telecom, and relaxed investment norms in multi-brand retailing. India attracted USD 22.42 billion of FDI in 2012-13 compared with USD 35.12 billion in the previous fiscal. India needs about USD 1 trillion to fund infrastructure such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth.

Global Front –

On August 1, the government liberalised the FDI regime in about a dozen sectors, including telecom, and relaxed investment norms in multi-brand retailing. India attracted USD 22.42 billion of FDI in 2012-13 compared with USD 35.12 billion in the previous fiscal. India needs about USD 1 trillion to fund infrastructure such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth.
Global Front –

Global Front –
MG’s View – Nikkei’s strength is positive for our market.

MG’s View – Nikkei’s strength is positive for our market.
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There is also some good news - Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India increased by 6 per cent year-on-year to USD 10.87 billion during the first six months of this year.

The official said the country will receive more and more foreign investment on the back of recent liberalisation in the FDI policy regime.
The euphoria of Tokyo winning the 2020 Olympics drove Japan's Nikkei share average to a five-week high on Monday, led by stocks expected to benefit from the event, with a sharp upward revision to second-quarter growth further boosting sentiment.

Important article, it’s a must read to know what RBI can do and what can’t –

MARKET OUTLOOK –
It may give some sign that trend is changing but still I am not convincing with the rally. My last point still there i.e. 5710, experts feel that it would face strong resistance around 5675 but I would prefer Nifty to close above 5710 for any trend setting.

So right now I would prefer it as big relief rally as nothing has changed on the big picture front. Anyone can see what has changed in past 4 sessions.

But yes, we are at the level where we can not short it yet nor we can take long positions, so better to wait and watch where market is going and do trades accordingly.

May be I would try to play some shorts with SL 5710 and above this level I would play for longs with SL 5695 but only on intraday basis.
STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Hindalco -
Hindalco Industries has said that metals business will face challenges in the near term as aluminium prices continue to remain weak in the international market and will have bearing on financial results in 2013-14.

Telecom –
Idea and Bharti are good pick if market support here onward.

Tata Motors –
Have already suggested trading ranges and view when stock was around 291. My view was simple, TM to move up 291-305 then 306-321 then 321-342 and then 380+ Here I would like to emphasize that you need to keep trailing SL everyday as per trade ranges. Once stock moves out of one trading zone you need to keep previous trading ranges as SL for mid term.

Importantly – TM outlook is in view with Nifty either positive or flat or small negative, for a deep cut in market TM wont be a big exception, yes it may hold its trading ranges.

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