Morning Bells (8 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

From Swami Vivekanad – Jeevan me zyada rishtey hona zaruri nahi he, par jo rishtey hain uname jeevan hona zaruri he.

The Indian equity market ended with gains for third straight trading session on Thursday led by Capital Goods, Telecom, FMCG and the Banking stocks. The realty stocks further surged higher on expectations that the RBI will cut interest rates in its monetary policy review meeting this month. The IT stocks also extended gains led by Infosys, Wipro, TCS & HCL Tech which hit 52 week highs today.

The S&P BSE Small-Cap index and BSE Mid - Cap index also gained by 0.8% and 0.5% each. Among the top losers were Consumer Durables, Metals and select PSU stocks.

In addition, lifting the sentiment also was positive cues from the European markets as they gained ahead of monetary-policy meetings in the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tata Power, Hero MotoCorp, L&T, BHEL, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto, SBI, ICICI Bank, NTPC, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Coal India, Cipla, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, Gail India, Jindal Steel were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On Domestic Front –

1.

On Global front –

1.

European Central Bank(ECB) in its policy meet on Thursday kept the interest rates unchanged into an eight month. ECB has kept key rate untouched at 0.75% since July when Europe was reeling under the economic debt crisis. The rates have been kept unchanged despite falling inflation, a flat-to-negative growth and amidst uncertainty on the Eurozone. 

2.

Former Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi has reportedly been sentenced to one year in jail by an Italian court. He was reportedly sentenced for divulging the contents of a telephone call in a 2005 banking scandal case. 

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Nothing much to say here, market seems range bound with a bit volatility, now all eyes will be on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy which will be the next domestic trigger, there one can expect 25 bps cut based on the Budget.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.5% and ended at 13.02 against previous close of 13.40.

FNO PCR is 1 against previous close 0.92.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 16 paisa and was trading at 54.46 against its previous close of 54.72.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1544.44 up 2.98 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now we are in New series so not much to say here, will just follow the trend. Short term range 5550 – 5650 - 5835 – 5940. Here 5835-40 is the level where Nifty face strong resistance, so this level should be watch closely as short covering can take place here if Nifty try to break this level decisively while 5650-55 can give small support to Nifty, if broken then next support comes around 5565.

Intraday Resistance – 5970 – 5924 – 5893 and Support – 5817 – 5770 – 5740

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6047 – 5963 – 5841 and Supports – 5634 – 5550 - 5428

Opening – Nifty closed just below 5870 a next small hurdle, so opening seems flat and market may remain range bound. Some selling pressure can be seen in second half and weekly traders need to close their positions.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RBI releases New Banking Guideline –

The Reserve Bank of India has been receiving queries from intending applicants seeking clarifications on the guidelines on Licensing of New Banks in the Private Sector. The guidelines were issued on February 22, 2013.
Considering that the clarifications sought would be of wider interest and use for all intending applicants, the Reserve Bank has decided to post the clarifications on its website. The identity of those who raise queries would be kept confidential, the central bank said on Thursday.
The queries may be sent by April 10, 2013 to Chief General Manager-in-Charge, Department of Banking Operations and Development, Reserve Bank of India, Central Office, 12th Floor, Central Office Building, Fort, Mumbai–400 001 through mail or email.

Indian Media & Entertainment to touch Rs917bn: FICCI – KPMG

The Indian M&E industry grew from Rs728 bn in 2011 to Rs 820 bn in 2012, registering an overall growth of 12.6 percent. While, 2012 was a challenging year for the industry, with some improvement likely in the global economy in 2013 and India’s real GDP expected to be in the region of 6.1% to 6.7%,  the prognosis for the Industry looks much better going forward.

DLF –

DLF surged by 3.4% after the board of directors of the company approved sale of equity shares via institutional placement programme(IPP) to achieve the minimum shareholding pattern stipulated by SEBI. Board shall consider convening a general meeting of shareholders on Apr 04, 2013, to seek their approval for the same.

Coal India -

Coal India slipped by 1.3% after reports stated that Coal India’s February production was 42.6mn tones as compared to a target of 44.37mt. 96% of the target production has been achieved for February, 2013 period. April-Feb production turned out to be 398mt v/s 413.7mt target.  96% of target production achieved for April-Feb period.

Earlier, reports said that Coal India(CIL) might import 20mt to meet the supply in line with orders to increase supply to power firms and avoiding penalties. Owing to a potential increase in number of power stations next year, the world’s largest coal producer is likely to revive import plans.

The coal producer is supposed to deliver 80% of committed supplies according to the new fuel supplies agreement in order to avoid penalties. To compensate the shortfall in supplies, the company is supposed to take the import route.  

MCX -

NYSE Euronext has called off selling stake in MCX, according to reports.

Earlier reports stated that NYSE Euronext was planning to sell 4.79% stake in MCX, the country's largest commodity exchange, according to reports.

Reports stated that the sale, likely to take place on Thursday, will be at a 3-5% discount.

The size of the deal would be approximately Rs 2.50bn, says report.

BhartiAirtel –

Bharti Airtel mulls selling 25% stake in the Direct to home(DTH) business of the company, said the reports. The company expects a valuation of $800mn for same. Bharti has reportedly signed non-disclosure agreements(NDA) with private equity players for the stake sale. 

Comcast and Liberty Global, US based DTH companies are reportedly in talks with Bharti Airtel and are interested in buying the stake. Bharti plans to raise around $200mn via the stake sale.

Bharti Airtel's DTH has reportedly a customer base of 7.9mn customers. Its rival Dish Tv has a customer base of around 15mn.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Hexaware – Place order for March 80PE below 1.5 (max 4 lots) first buy 2 lots and then buy another 2 lots at 20-30 paisa below. SL 0.5 TG 2.5+ (Remember its Positional, Active from 26 Feb 13, not executed yet)

Note – Hexa to move higher, say around 95+ levels, so we are not taking this call right now, will shift to 90PE once stock will touch 95+ level.

HDFC Bank 640CE – bought @11.5 (1 Lot) SL 7TG 15+ (Active from 7 Mar 13)

Booked profit @15, Total Gain 2250

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +7,750 + 2250 (HDFC bank) = +10,000

(Profit in HDFC Bank)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +16,550 + 2150 = +18,700 (HDFC Gain)

(Profit in HDFC 640CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Watch 5870 level closely, close above this level will lead Nifty to 5940.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (7 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

When you truly believe that you deserve success… you mind will automatically generate ways to achieve it. Good Morning.

Hello Friends, Have some technical issue with my system and that's cutting short MB. Will discuss on board.

The Indian equity markets extended its winning streak to second straight trading session following overnight gains in the US market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a new all-time high, surpassing the record set more than five years ago infact the index closed well above its all time high. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.3%.

Nifty managed to close above the 5800 mark led by IT heavyweights like Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro. TCS surpassed Reliance Industries in terms of market cap.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, BHEL, HDFC, ONGC were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Tata Power, NTPC, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, Coal India, HDFC Bank, Gail India, ITC, Cipla were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - S&P BSE Realty index up 4.5% followed by S&P BSE Capital Goods index up 2.5%, S&P BSE Metal index up 2.2% and S&P BSE IT index 1.3%. Even the S&P BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index added 1.1% and 1.5% respectively while major losers were S&P BSE FMCG index down 1% and S&P BSE Consumer Durables index down 0.5%.

On Domestic Front –

1.

On Global front –

1.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Nothing much to say here, market seems range bound with a bit volatility, now all eyes will be on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy which will be the next domestic trigger, there one can expect 25 bps cut based on the Budget.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was slightly up 0.1% and ended at 13.40 against previous close of 13.39.

FNO PCR is 1 against previous close 0.92.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 20 paisa and was trading at 54.72 against its previous close of 54.92.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1541.03 up 1.24 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now we are in New series so not much to say here, will just follow the trend. Short term range 5550 – 5650 - 5835 – 5940. Here 5835-40 is the level where Nifty face strong resistance, so this level should be watch closely as short covering can take place here if Nifty try to break this level decisively while 5650-55 can give small support to Nifty, if broken then next support comes around 5565.

Intraday Resistance – 5866 – 5847 – 5833 and Support – 5799 – 5780 – 5765

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6047 – 5963 – 5841 and Supports – 5634 – 5550 - 5428

Opening – As told Nifty to face resistance around 5840, so opening could be either flat or a bit down.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

M&M –

Shares of M&M slipped by 2% after workers at company’s Nashik plant threatened to go on a strike in a notice to the management after March 11, if their demands for higher wages were not settled by the company. The workers yesterday reportedly stopped work at 2 assembly lines for a short period of time causing a fall in production of about 90 vehicles. Reports said that production was back to normal from the second shift in all shops of the plant. The management is reportedly in dialogue with the union and is trying to break a mutually agreeable settlement.

RIL-

Reliance Industries is planning to finalized Samsung as a partner to source the Korean conglomerate's long-term evolution (LTE) technology platform for voice services over high speed 4G networks across the country, according to reports.

Reports stated that Samsung has agreed to offer entry-level 4G smartphones at a little over $100 (about Rs 5,500) for use with RIL's voice and high-speed internet services.

RIL is planning a soft launch in Mumbai and Delhi by mid-2013 and a formal launch is set to be announced later this year, most likely on December 28, the birth anniversary of Reliance founder, late Dhirubhai Ambani, according to reports.

For Samsung, the JV with RIL will allow it to use the India launch to showcase it in the US market

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Hexaware – Place order for March 80PE below 1.5 (max 4 lots) first buy 2 lots and then buy another 2 lots at 20-30 paisa below. SL 0.5 TG 2.5+ (Remember its Positional, Active from 26 Feb 13, not executed yet)

Note – Unfortunately we missed it y’day. Lets see if buying opportunity comes once again.

Tata Steel 360CE – bought @5.5 (2 Lot) SL 3.5 TG 9+ (Active from 5 Mar 13)

Booked profit @7.75 & 9, Total Gain 5250

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +2500 + 5250 = 7750/-

(Profit in TS)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +11,350 + 5200 = 16,550 (Y’day gain)

(Profit in TS 360CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Watch 5840 level closely, market may remain range bound for next 1 or 2 days.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (6 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Time decides whom we meet in life. Our heart decides whom we want in life… But our behaviour decides who will stay in our life.

So finally as discussed day before y’day about a bounce, and y’day it was a surprise on D-Street, all were expecting a little bounce but FM’s statement helped in gaining confidence. Reason was simple, when Feb series last 3 days shaded Nifty by around 200 points 5700PE was opted as hedge and huge calls were written, then in the beginning of this series 5500PE has increased OI. So my logic was simple, whenever investors go for over hedge it react as ceiling (i.e. major support) for short term trend which is 5630 – 5550 for Nifty. So when Nifty was hovering around 5650 it was clear that from here there should be a bounce. So try to understand this formula and don’t misguide with other cues and trend which is still unsure and down. So around March expiry or say after RBI announcement market will have pace for either direction, it could be new high or new low of 2013.

Stock market in India bounced back on Tuesday tracking positive cues from the international equity markets. After opening with a gap up, markets surged throughout the day led by all round buying witnessed in scrips across the sectors.

All the S&P BSE sectoral indices ended in the green, the interest rate sensitive stocks like realty, Banking and Auto were among the top gainers, followed by Oil & Gas and the IT stocks. Even the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index and S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose by 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. 

The Metals stocks were in demand after China announced that it has maintained its economic-growth target at 7.5% for 2013, while setting a lower inflation goal of 3.5%.

Gainers – Sterlite gained 5%, Hindalco gained 5% and Tata Steel was up 2.8% while RIL, Infosys,  Wipro, TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, Gail India, M&M , Dr Reddys Lab, Coal India, NTPC, Tata Power, ONGC,  Hero MotoCorp were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Bajaj Auto, BHEL, ITC, HDFC were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - Shares of Airline companies surged higher after Aviation regulator notified new FDI norms. Kingfisher stock surged higher by ~5%, while Jet Airways gained by 2.5% and Spicejet stock was also up 1%.

On Domestic Front –

1.

Although there are still some prevailing uncertainties regarding how the GAAR will be implemented in 2016-17, the post budget declarations from the Indian Ministry of Finance contain some positive elements.

Mauritius has taken note of the measures announced by the Indian Minister of Finance, the Honourable P. Chidambaram, during the presentation of the 2013-14 budget to the Indian Parliament on Thursday 28 February 2013.

The Minister announced, amongst others, that the Indian Income Tax Act would be amended to provide that Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) would constitute a necessary but not sufficient condition to avail of the benefits under double taxation avoidance agreements. 

This announcement has created much confusion among investors in India and internationally, including those using Mauritius to do business with India. The amendment has been interpreted as providing wide powers to the Indian tax authorities to question the Tax Residency Certificate produced by a resident of a contracting state.

2.

Mukesh Ambani has retained his title as India's richest person for sixth year in a row, while Mexican business tycoon Carlos Slim has emerged as wealthiest in the world for the fourth consecutive year. 

There are a total 55 billionaires from India on the list of 1,426 persons from across the world having a minimum networth of $ 1bn.

Mukesh Ambani is ranked 22nd, while Indian Lakshmi Mittal is at 41st position with a networth of US$16.5 bn, according to annual ranking published by business magazine Forbes.

3.

Indias record high current account deficit is the countrys biggest concern, Finance Ministrys chief economic adviser Raghuram Rajan reportedly said.

Country's current account deficit widened to a record high of 5.4% of GDP in the September quarter, according to reports.

The current account deficit is expected to stay at record high for the entire 2012-13.

Rajan also reported that food inflation persisting at a high level was not easy for the central bank to manage.

On Global front –

1.

The Shanghai Composite index in China rebounded strongly as the National People’s Congress — the country’s parliament — began its annual session. However, property developers fell further under the lingering influence of fresh restrictions imposed on the sector late last week. The rebound came as outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao kicked off the annual session of the NPC by announcing an economic growth target of 7.5% for 2013, in line with expectations.

2.

The European market was trading higher on Tuesday after the final reading of the euro-zone composite purchasing-managers' index, for February was revised up from a preliminary estimate. 

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Nothing much to say here, market seems range bound with a bit volatility, now all eyes will be on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy which will be the next domestic trigger, there one can expect 25 bps cut based on the Budget.

The INDIA VIX on NSE slipped again 2% and ended at 13.39 against previous close of 13.69.

FNO PCR is 0.92 against previous close 0.82.

Indian Rupee – Rupee wa down 0.06 paisa and was trading at 54.92 against its previous close of 54.84.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1541.07 up 15.87 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now we are in New series so not much to say here, will just follow the trend. Short term range 5550 – 5650 - 5835 – 5940. Here 5835-40 is the level where Nifty face strong resistance, so this level should be watch closely as short covering can take place here if Nifty try to break this level decisively while 5650-55 can give small support to Nifty, if broken then next support comes around 5565.

Intraday Resistance – 5876 – 5833 – 5808 and Support – 5741 – 5697 – 5673

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6047 – 5963 – 5841 and Supports – 5634 – 5550 - 5428

Opening – Seems a bit positive and then market can go for a small range bound session till EU cues.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

New Banking Licence –

The issuance of new banking licences in India is likely to be highly selective given the challenges that new entrants face and the cautious approach of the Reserve Bank of India, Fitch Ratings says.

We expect the RBI to exercise stringent measures of selection. Applications are likely to vary considerably in both quantum and type. The risks could be very different this time, with corporate houses expressing interest in a bank licence.

The new entrants have to address financial inclusion, comply with priority-sector lending targets, and position 25% of their branches in rural areas. Such restrictions could limit profitability for new banks, and restrict applicants to those with deep pockets but also to those with a strong commitment and successful track record.

Issuing licenses to conglomerates could increase corporate governance risks, despite RBI's attempt to regulate these issues. The new guidelines announced on 22 February are tough, requiring a successful track record of at least 10 years, greater minimum capital, and viable business plans that meet prudential requirements. The central bank's strong focus on good corporate governance, and its ability to supervise a consolidated banking entity under the recently passed banking reforms, could help in enforcing checks and balances to monitor additional risks.

Sugar Decontrol-

Government is planning to consider relaxing controls on the sugar industry, according to reports.

The sugar decontrol is being delayed after reports of first such decision came last month after an expert panel headed by Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Chariman C. Rangarajan in October last year suggested scrapping two major regulations of supply release mechanism and levying sugar obligation and other regulations subsequently.

Economic survey-2013 too suggested to decontrol the over regulated sugar industry in a phased manner in a similar way recommended by Rangarajan panel.  

Godrej Properties-

Shares of Godrej Properties gained by 2.7% today after the company announced the launch of its landmark commercial development, Godrej BKC. At 1.3 million square feet, this is one of the largest real estate development projects launched in the city. The construction of Godrej BKC has commenced and the project is expected to be complete in 2015.

RIL –

Defence Ministry has cleared “No-Go” zones imposed on its producing Reliance Industries KG-D6 gas block and discovery block of NEC-25 in Bay of Bengal and permitted oil and gas activities with certain conditions, according to reports.

Reports said that Ministry of Defence (MoD) had in all declared 7 blocks, including RIL’s Krishna Godavari basin KG-D6 block and gas discovery area of NEC-25 in the North East Coast (NEC) region.

While MoD has relented on RIL blocks, five other areas of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), BG Group of UK and Cairn India will continue to be under “No-Go” areas, says report.

Essar Oil –

We have discussed new of block clearance, y’day stock gained 21%.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Hexaware – Place order for March 80PE below 1.5 (max 4 lots) first buy 2 lots and then buy another 2 lots at 20-30 paisa below. SL 0.5 TG 2.5+ (Remember its Positional, Active from 26 Feb 13, not executed yet)

Note – Unfortunately we missed it y’day. Lets see if buying opportunity comes once again.

Tata Steel 360CE – bought @5.5 (2 Lot) SL 3.5 TG 9+ (Active from 5 Mar 13)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +2500.

(Profit in Cairn India)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +5100 + 6250 (Y’day gain)

(Profit in M&M Futuere 4250, Yes Bank future 2000)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Watch 5840 level closely, market may remain range bound for next 1 or 2 days.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.