Good Morning Friends.
No man in
this world is rich enough to buy his own PAST. Enjoy each moment before it gets
beyond reach.
Aha, this time operators came with
new trick, since past 4-5 expiry we seen that short covering or profit booking
was coming in last hour of expiry day, this time they start with opening and
Nifty opened gap up.
Finally, market
ended the June series today on a bright note with investors perhaps relieved
that the series has ended. The June series had it all, a high of 6,133.75 on
May 30 to the June 24 lows of 5,566.25, a fall of almost 570 points or 10%.
In
addition, better than anticipated Q1 CY13 current account deficit data aided
sentiment. India’s current account deficit came in a day earlier than schedule.
It moderated sharply to 3.6% of GDP as compared to the historic highs of 6.7%
seen last quarter. Trade deficit narrowed to $45.6bn in Q4 from $51.6bn
year-on-year. The data was precisely timed to come in before the currency
market could open.
Beyond
the market, this series witnessed nature unleash its destruction in
Uttarakhand, unemployment at record highs on government inaction, and the rupee
hitting a record all-time low of 61.71 per dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman
Bernanke put to rest the debate on whether India is deleveraged from the global
economy when he hit sentiment across global markets with his early stimulus
roll-back juggernaut.
Market
Booster –
We just discussed y’day that now Govt. is finding
new way to stem fall in currency and today they come up with 2 ideas, first was
CAD data and then second one and big one was price hiked in gas prices.
The Cabinet Committee for Economic
Affairs (CCEA) on Thursday approved the proposal to hike the natural gas
price to USD 8.4 per mmbtu (metric million British thermal units) from April 1,
2014.
The CCEA has approved the
Rangarajan committee's formula for gas pricing. The new price will apply
uniformly to all producers, be it state-owned firms like Oil and Natural Gas
Corp ( ONGC ) or private sector Reliance Industries.
It is believed that this action
will bring new investment to country.
Gainers –
Cairn India, DLF,
UltraTech Cement, ONGC, HCL Technologies, Sun Pharmaceutical, TCS, HDFC Bank
and Reliance Industries were
among the major gainers.
Losers -
IDFC, Maruti, Grasim, Punjab National Bank, NTPC, ITC, Coal
India, Hero MotoCorp and Jindal Steel lost out shine.
Sectoral –
Oil and gas, IT, telecom, pharma, realty and banking
stocks led from the front. Even mid- and small-cap stocks participated in the
upswing. Only consumer durables and select capital goods stocks ended in the
red.
Domestic
Front –
Global
Front –
===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================
June series may have disappointed the street by ending down around 7,
but now all of sudden after CAD data most of experts turned positive for July
series. The logic for this view is simple, till day before y’day we seen short
roll over in July, but on the day of expiry good amount of short covering in
the frontline stocks were seen, which is a positive sign.
However I would like to state here that - In the beginning of the month
experts predicted the June series to surpass 6000 mark and some were saying
6200. I was also part of that view with a cautious note “whether Nifty first
test 5940 or 6200 & if Nifty closes below 5940 then we will see further
downside say 5740” yes 5550 was not on my card that time.
Yes, sharp depreciation in Indian currency and Ben Bernanke's comments
on rollback of quantitative easing led equity indices in to huge losses.
Another belief for smooth July is - Several mid-cap stocks in real
estate, infra stocks have seen major battering in past two weeks. Its belief
that now short calls will not be repeated in such heavily beaten counters in
July series.
The INDIA VIX on NSE plummeting by 10.50% and ended at 18.85 against
previous close of 21.07.
FNO PCR was 0.89 against previous close 0.89.
Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 53 paisa and was trading at 60.19 against its
previous close of 60.72.
S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1614.12 up 10.75 than its
previous close at the time of writing M Bells.
======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK
========================
Though its difficult to express any view just at the day of beginning of
a series, but I believe that the market may rebound first a little bit. I will
keep my stance on long side for small position till 5,750.
But all of sudden I will turned cautious above 5750, as Nifty to face
strong resistance or say when Nifty will reach around 5790-5810 call writers
may get active. Its a 200 days moving average (DMA) and that’s I see Nifty will
find hard to breach the levels easily. That will be a struggling point. So if
we are long we can keep SL 5,590.
Opening – Seems flat to positive.
======================== STOCK OUTLOOK
======================
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
Interestingly June series came as
dragon for some good companies, check it out –
Tata Motors –
Tata Motors is now no longer an India play and a
lot mainly depends upon how Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) performs overseas. So keep
eye on its global movement. Now with this view depreciation in Rupee favors TM,
because when they will start collecting JLR profit, they will be benefited in
Indian Rupee.
Ranbaxy
& Sun Pharma -
The
ministry of health and family welfare on Thusday banned the sale of three
widely prescribed drugs in India. Anti-diabetic Pioglitazone, painkiller
Analgin and anti-depressant Deanxit drugs were banned owing to increases in
reporting of adverse health-related cases.
Health
ministry was mulling the withdrawal of these drugs since years. These drugs
aren't marketed globally said reports. All major countries such as US, UK,
Canada, Japan, European Union and Australia have already banned the drugs.
According
to the drugs and cosmetics law, any drug that is banned in the country of
origin will be prohibited for sale in India until proven to be harmless.
This
drug has a Rs. 700crore market in India. The ban
will affect Ranbaxy, Abbott, Wockhardt, and Sun Pharma.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
surged 3.44% after the company launched Lamotrigine tablets, a generic version
of Lamictal XR in the US market on June 25.
====================
OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t
shows strength.
ITC
320PE – @1 TG 2+ SL 0.65 (Max 2 lots)
(Booked on average price of 2.5, profit 3000)
===============
INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
============
PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw
our attention)
MG
Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)
June 2013 = -15,750 + 3000 = -12,750
(Booked profit in ITC call = +3000)
Billionaire
Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)
June 2013 = +400 + 3000 = +3400
(Booked profit in ITC call = +3000)
Today’s
MG Mantra –
New series with lot of hopes, go
and make big money in this series. Crompton, HUL and Havells are there. Even
study quick about most beaten stocks, in Mid caps, they can give you Jackpot.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those
that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t
enter this market.