Weekend Special (06-07 Oct. 12)

So once again we are on holiday. Let share some other moments.

Though we have today special trading sessions.

I am fade up of typing long text, so this week I am not putting my text. Just relaxing and preparing for Monday.

Have a great weekend.

Morning Bells (05 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Never ignore somebody who cares for you… one day you may realize that you have lost a diamonds because you were busy in collecting stones.

Finally they did it! Match winner six! Y’day I had informed you that my guess is to Govt. is in mood to approve all reforms comes true.

Well, Finally the Govt. has rolled out reforms and all 21 big ticket items getting cleared by the cabinet Y’day. Here’s take a look to major decisions –

Cabinet cleared 49% FDI in insurance and cleared as much as 26 per cent FDI in pension (Need Parliamentary approval)

Long waited amendment in company bill (will be taken up in winter session)

Cabinet has also approved the declaration of five airports as international airports in cities Lucknow, Varanasi, Trichurpurli, Mangalore and Coimbatore.

I would like to clear you here that to push these bills, Govt. needs simple majority in both houses from those members who are present and voting in the house. So don’t get excited too much. Its cheers time but not a formal sign of victory.

Well, on other side in a circus act – Opposition told to protest the reforms and will bring “vote of confidence” in parliament. What a great drama, SP, BSP and BJD are also opposed to it while TMC and the Left are saying they will defeat the bills in Parliament. How much of you will agree on SP & BSP’s stand?

Now only pending is GAAR which will be on discussion later this month. Again my view is to Govt. is in the mood to accept it, otherwise why appointed this committee? So if recommendations get incorporated then that will be hugely positive for market.

Currency is getting strengthening and experts expecting it to reach 49 sometimes later this year of fresh start of next year. It would be good sign because inflation as well as the deficit, there is room for improvement because the currency has strengthened and approx 70-80% of the import bill is oil.

On Global front the eurozone debt crisis continues to act as a major overhang for the global economy. The US economy too seems to be losing some steam while China too is grappling with a deeper-than-anticipated slowdown

Spain is another worry on global front, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is desperately hoping that solution will emerge and save him from a Catch-22 situation - the pressures of the regional elections in his birthplace of Galicia on October 21 and accepting the bailout package from the ECB at the EU summit in Brussels on October 18. (Report MoneyControl.com)

This week Auto and Cement stocks will remain in focus as companies from these two sectors will announce their monthly sales volume data for September.

So once again, October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill. On global front any move from China to support its economy will be an added positive, particularly for commodities.

So next stimulus could be from China, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimuli by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing much to say, don’t expect any big gap-up like we had seen on approval of FDI in retail. It would be normal gap-up and then market will watch out for further political development.

Market could remain in 50-70 pts range because of following reason, first it has major resistance at 5850, secondly its Friday so short traders will go for profit booking, also seeing 18 month high many big investors can opt cautious approach ahead of big events and corporate earning nos. next week. Be cautious on 5840-5850 mark. Also its Friday too.

Market trend remain buy on dips, so small correction could be used to make fresh entry at lower levels till 5672 is not broken out.

Had informed you earlier that breakout of 5740 will lead Nifty towards 5830-5850-5900 else market can take back from this range to test 5650-5600 mark.

NIFTY –

Vix is 16.44 and Nifty PCR 0.94.

Resistance 5812 – 5838 - 5868 and Supports 5775 – 5750 – 5672

Opening seems positive say around/above our first resistance level.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Brent crude - can clipped to 105$ and could remain in the range 105-111 for Oct. series.

Banks – Govt. has decided to give interest subsidy of 2% a year to all state owned banks for farm loans upto Rs 3 lakh in 2012-13. Finance Minister proposed to continue the interest subvention scheme for providing short term loans to farmers at 7% p.a in FY13. Public sector banks (PSBs) generally charge 9% rate of interest on farm loans. Lenders can now claim for 2% back from the government of India while disbursing such loans at 7%.

Keep eye on Dhanalaxmi Bank and YES bank for short to midterm bet.

IT – Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

Infy - Shares of Infosys Ltd. fell on Wednesday after CLSA's sales team said that the stock could drop as much as 40% from the current levels and announced a price target of Rs. 1566. Y’day it remained balance.

Insurance and Pharma – FII now eying on further reforms in sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both sector.

CLOSED CALLS –

Nifty 5900CE - @31 for TG 55+ SL 15 (TG Achieved, booked 1 lot, today book second lot and close call)

PFC - @187 for TG 198+ SL 176 (TG Achieved, booked at 198+, call closed now)

Titan - @260 for TG 265++ SL 247 (TG Achieved and call closed at 267-268)

OPEN CALLS –

TM 300CE - @3.75 for TG 4.5-5+ SL 2.25

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Today’s MG Mantra –

Since all are talking for correction and big crocos can take advantage so it would be wise to keep strict SL for all your longs. Be cautious on 5840-5850 mark. Also its Friday too.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Morning Bells (04 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

We believe Goodluck will do some day something!... But we don’t know Goodluck is also waiting that we do something someday.

So Friends main Indian stock indices saw a lacklustre session and Index closed with slender gains as market players remained on the sidelines after seeing the indices to 15-month highs. Investors are also cautious ahead of quarterly corporate earnings season. Infy will be the first big company to announce its results on October 12

New from another reform is a high-level committee headed by HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh, today recommended increasing electricity charges and rail fares. Suggesting big-ticket reforms to attract investment in the infrastructure sector, also pitched for 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in the telecom sector. The limit at present is 74 per cent.

The panel also suggested raising prices of natural gas. These recommendations are aimed at attracting Rs 51.46 akh crore for funding infrastructure sector during the 12th ive Year Plan (2012-17), said the report which was presented o Prime Minister Manmohan Singh earlier in the day. (Report MoneyControl.com)

FM has also done quite a lot, now all eyes on GAAR, first thing which he did after his appointment as finance minister was to appoint the Shome Committee and told them to submit the report by Sept.30, its done. Committee recommended, first GAAR should be postponed. Secondly, GAAR should not be applied across the board, and third, GAAR should not be applied where there are tax treaties and introspective taxes should be used only to set right certain things and not settle scores. So if the government accepts it, and seems Govt. is in the mood to accept it, otherwise why appointed this committee? So if recommendations get incorporated then that will be hugely positive for market.

Also good news is that currency is getting strengthened; the rupee gained for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday to touch a new five-month high. The initial leg-up has happened in both the currency and the stock market on the back of the reforms. And currency seems to continue to get more upside. It would be good sign because inflation as well as the deficit, there is room for improvement because the currency has strengthened and approx 70-80% of the import bill is oil.

In another event Brokerage house CLSA has reiterated its 'sell' recommendations on retail chains Titan, Pantaloon Retail and Shoppers Stop, saying the profit margins would be under pressure in the foreseeable future because of sluggish economic growth. CLSA has also downgraded Infy and Infy tanked y’day.

On Global front the eurozone debt crisis continues to act as a major overhang for the global economy. The US economy too seems to be losing some steam while China too is grappling with a deeper-than-anticipated slowdown

Spain is another worry on global front, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is desperately hoping that solution will emerge and save him from a Catch-22 situation - the pressures of the regional elections in his birthplace of Galicia on October 21 and accepting the bailout package from the ECB at the EU summit in Brussels on October 18. (Report MoneyControl.com)

This week Auto and Cement stocks will remain in focus as companies from these two sectors will announce their monthly sales volume data for September.

So once again, October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill. On global front any move from China to support its economy will be an added positive, particularly for commodities.

So next stimulus could be from China, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimuli by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market will remain in tight range because markets have consolidated, broken out above 5700 and Nifty seems heading slowly towards 5800-5850. The move is slow and reason is simple, we saw 50-100 point gains in a single session, big gap ups last series and that cannot be happen all the time.

Market trend remain buy on dips, so small correction could be used to make fresh entry at lower levels till 5600 is not broken out.

As told close above 5740 will lead to break 5800, could be 5830-5850. So probably I expect in the next two-three days we see another 50-70 points get added to the Nifty.

So probably Oct series is going to remain in 200 pts range, First attempt could be close above 5740 then Nifty will enter to crucial range 5740-5775, I will say watch it carefully and if something comes boosting then we can head 5830-5850-5900 else market can take back from this range to test 5650-5600 mark. So development in upcoming days will confirm the mood of market. But as far as I see it’s a around 200 pts series.

NIFTY –

Bulls are trying to break strong resistance or say crucial range of 5740-5750 but not getting success which putting investors sideline.

Vix is up 1% to 16.5 and Nifty PCR 0.93.

Resistance 5740 – 5771 - 5830 and Supports 5714 – 5683 – 5672 - 5614.

Opening seems positive say around/above our first resistance level, thought SGX Nifty is down.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks (after small correction in banks) – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Brent crude - can clipped to 105$ and could remain in the range 105-111 for Oct. series.

KFA – Seems troubles are just behind of stock, after failing to assure its lenders with any 'concrete' solution for restructuring of debt (Company has total loans of around Rs 7,000 crore.), Now management has declared partial lock-out till Thursday. I had already warned to stay away from stock times being till aprx 20% correction. Since past 3 sessions there’s no buyer for stock. So one should wait till Diageo deal finalization.

Banks – Govt. has decided to give interest subsidy of 2% a year to all state owned banks for farm loans upto Rs 3 lakh in 2012-13. Finance Minister proposed to continue the interest subvention scheme for providing short term loans to farmers at 7% p.a in FY13. Public sector banks (PSBs) generally charge 9% rate of interest on farm loans. Lenders can now claim for 2% back from the government of India while disbursing such loans at 7%.

Keep eye on Dhanalaxmi Bank and YES bank for short to midterm bet.

IT – Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

Infy - Shares of Infosys Ltd. fell on Wednesday after CLSA's sales team said that the stock could drop as much as 40% from the current levels and announced a price target of Rs. 1566.

Insurance and Pharma – FII now eying on further reforms in sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both sector.

OPEN CALLS –

(One can also find open calls under our "Call History" section)

Nifty 5900CE - @31 for TG 55+ SL 15

TM 300CE - @3.75 for TG 4.5-5+ SL 2.25

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

PFC - @187 for TG 198+ SL 176 (short to midterm bet)

Titan - @260 for TG 265++ SL 247 (After CLSA we need to close position with minimum profit today as nothing wrong with stock but report will put unnecessary selling pressure)

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in (every time to find it on single click rather than to scroll here) One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Since all are talking for correction and big crocos can take advantage so it would be wise to keep strict SL for all your longs and wait for close above 5740-50 mark to book part profit.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Morning Bells (03 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

The world suffers a lot… Not because of bad people… but because of the silence of good people.

Once again political drama is taking place, DMK have joined the hands (could be a Kannimozi effect) but as long as I see there is no threat to Govt. in current scenario as UPA+M2 = 283, +10 to magic no. but yes the match can be interesting after Diwali.

Well bears are eagerly waiting for a miss from bulls so some amount of consolidation is expected, traders too looking for profit booking this week after current rally and on any weakness bears can make strong attempt to pull Nifty below 5650.

Well, GAAR report submitted and now one needs to wait for the guidelines to come, it would be another trigger for quite positive move. Govt. has indicated that it will take decision in 20 days timeframe.

Brend Crude is falling which will give time being relief to our Govt. and will support in Rs. appreciation. So all is positive except people are expecting correction to move further, say to make new high.

Here is some news which are not in favour of Indian market, so please keep close eye on further development and specially on Nifty levels to save your earnings last month. It would be  better to keep cash for further buy instead of loosing.

1. The four-month long monsoon season in India has drawn to a close, leaving the country with a rain deficit of 8%, data from the India Meteorological Department showed. Monsoon rains were 8% less than 50-yr average in 2012, the IMD said on its website.

2. The HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 52.8 in September, unchanged from August, which was a nine-month low.

3.  India's merchandise exports fell by nearly 10% in August to US$22.3bn while imports fell by ~5% to US$38bn, government data showed on Monday. 

4.  After the exit of the TMC from the government, the new second largest party in the UPA, the DMK, has said that it wants a rethink of the government decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail

(Reports – IndiaInfoline.com)

Oh!... now good news for mid to long terms bet –

1.  India is the fifth best country in the world for dynamic growing businesses according to the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index.  India sits ahead of Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, Singapore, Colombia, Russia and only trails Argentina, China., Uruguay and Chile

2. Moody's Investors Service said on Monday that the upcoming recapitalization of Spanish banks is credit positive, but warned it might not be sufficient.

China market is closed for whole week and HongKong market was closed on 1&2 Oct. So market move was cautious. We will again see range bound sessions next 2-3 days. Next trigger could be on Thursday later part or on Friday. Another view is – market remain range bound throughout week and then will see how China opens on Monday.

As already told that now its time to see progress on reform announcement, expectation for further reform announcement and more importantly market will wait for September inflation numbers as they will play a part in the RBI's rate decision in its next policy review meeting,.

This week Auto and Cement stocks will remain in focus as companies from these two sectors will announce their monthly sales volume data for September.

So once again, October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill. On global front any move from China to support its economy will be an added positive, particularly for commodities.

So next stimulus could be from China, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimuli by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

I am bullish on market as trend is still buy on dips, many chartist and tech experts are believing in bull-bear cycle which giving TG for Nifty in Oct. is 5400 Mark. To my view 5600 is like concrete support and would be strong support for bulls on closing basis. Yes but small dip would change the equation for FNO traders.

Market trend remain buy on dips, so small correction could be used to make fresh entry at lower levels till 5600 is not broken out.

As told close above 5740 will lead to break 5800, could be 5830-5850. So probably I expect in the next two-three days we see another 50-70 points get added to the Nifty.

Good news is that – FII has pumped more than Rs 19 K crore (USD 3.5 billion) in the Indian stock market in September, the highest monthly inflow in seven months, was the reaction of bold economic reform initiatives taken by the Govt.

So probably Oct series is going to remain in 200 pts range, First attempt could be close above 5740 then Nifty will enter to crucial range 5740-5775, I will say watch it carefully and if something comes boosting then we can head 5830-5850-5900 else market can take back from this range to test 5650-5600 mark. So development in upcoming days will confirm the mood of market. But as far as I see it’s a around 200 pts series.

NIFTY –

Vix is up 1.1% to 16.34 and Nifty PCR 0.92, Bank Nifty PCR – 0.87

Resistance 5740 – 5771 - 5830 and Supports 5714 – 5683 – 5672 - 5614.

Opening seems positive say around/above our first resistance level, thought SGX Nifty is down.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks (after small correction in banks) – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Brent crude - can clipped to 105$ and could remain in the range 105-111 for Oct. series.

KFA – Seems troubles are just behind of stock, after failing to assure its lenders with any 'concrete' solution for restructuring of debt (Company has total loans of around Rs 7,000 crore.), Now management has declared partial lock-out till Thursday. I had already warned to stay away from stock times being till aprx 20% correction. Since past 3 sessions there’s no buyer for stock. So one should wait till Diageo deal finalization.

There’re also media reports saying Air India should be partly privatised while Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh recently ruled out any move to privatise Air India as Govt. was pumping in Rs 30,000 Cr. for its restructuring

CoalGate – CBI today started probe against 24 companies and public officials in connection with alleged irregularities in coal block allocations between 1993 and 2004, including during the NDA regime. Now this game going to be interesting, so keep close eye on development, could be a good gain if you closely watch development in CBI probe.

The Coal Ministry has written to public sector firms, which were allotted mines, to present their case before the IMG on October 9 and 10.

Banks – Govt. has decided to give interest subsidy of 2% a year to all state owned banks for farm loans upto Rs 3 lakh in 2012-13. Finance Minister proposed to continue the interest subvention scheme for providing short term loans to farmers at 7% p.a in FY13. Public sector banks (PSBs) generally charge 9% rate of interest on farm loans. Lenders can now claim for 2% back from the government of India while disbursing such loans at 7%.

Keep eye on Dhanalaxmi Bank and YES bank for short to midterm bet.

IT – Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

Infy - is in talks with the West Bengal government for setting up a campus and hope for result is positive. This will also help WB in change over its image as IT business hub. (Reports PTI) Infy is on move.

Insurance and Pharma – FII now eying on further reforms in sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both sector.

OPEN CALLS –

Nifty 5900CE - @31 for TG 55+ SL 15

TM 300CE - @3.75 for TG 4.5-5+ SL 2.25

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

PFC - @187 for TG 198+ SL 176 (short to midterm bet)

Titan - @260 for TG 265++ SL 247

Today’s MG Mantra –

Since all are talking for correction and big crocos can take advantage so it would be wise to keep strict SL for all your longs and wait for close above 5740-50 mark to book part profit.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.