Morning Bells (12 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Lord BUDDHA was a price who left his palace in search of PEACE and we all BUDDHUS, are searching for a palace at cost of our peace.

Today is day of Infy, early morning Infy will post its result and it will shake the market. Everywhere talking point is Infy only.

ndian markets ended positive on Thursday extending its winning streak to the second trading session. After opening with a positive gap in early trades, the markets turned volatile and slipped into the red erasing all its gains. However, short covering in the banking, realty and IT stocks helped the benchmark indices bounce back. The Nifty gyrated almost 70 points intra-day.

Infy –

IT bellwether Infosys continued its upswing, the stock has now surged nearly by Rs160 in past two trading session in build up to the quarterly earnings to be announced on 12 April, 2013. (Also see: Infy Q4 preview) The Sensex closed at 18542, up 127 points, while the Nifty ended at 5,594, up 35 points over its previous close. The BSE Small-Cap index and BSE Mid-Cap index ended flat.

Infosys will kickstart the earnings season with its fourth quarter results on Friday. India's second largest software services provider cheered the street in Oct-Dec after several dismal quarters.

The company is expected to meet forecast in Jan-Mar, or maybe just miss it due to British Pound depreciation to the US Dollar. But the big question is will it guide or not guide for FY14?

Analysts on average expect Infosys to report a net profit of Rs 2,297 crore, down 3 percent sequentially, while Rupee revenue is seen up 3 percent at Rs 10,730 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. In US Dollar terms, revenue is expected to rise 4 percent at USD 1,987 million in Q4.

LIC sells Infy shares –

State-run insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has pared its stake in Infosys to 5.96 per cent, reducing its holding in the IT major in the last quarter with an estimated sale of shares worth over Rs 2,000 crore.

LIC, the biggest institutional investor in the stock market, held 7.24-percent stake in Infosys during the October-December quarter, which has fallen to 5.96 percent as of March 31.

 Gainers –

Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Coal India, Tata Motors, SBI, ICICI Bank, BHEL, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, Maruti, ITC and Sterlite Industries were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

RIL, Bharti Airtel, HDFC, Gail India, Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, M&M and NTPC were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –

Infy

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As told many times, 5600-5630 range seen decline, second time Nifty back from it. So lets see whether Infy push Nifty above it or again turn to 5500-5550.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3% and ended at 16.97 against previous close of 16.49.

(Not – my personal view is that Vix can move up max 17 to 17.5 which itself meant a small recovery can be there)

FNO PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.90.

(PCR is also suggesting its in middle)

Indian Rupee – Rupee ended flat and was trading at 54.51 against its previous close of 54.51.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1587.73 up 19.12 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically if you see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support seems around 5200-5250.

Once again emphasizing here – its corporate earning month and would remain highly volatile, some mild bounces could be there which can be used to book profits on longs and then to create shorts.

Intraday Resistance – 5689 – 5650 – 5622 and Support – 5554 – 5514 – 5486 (Pivot 5582)

Opening – All depend on Infy.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –

Tata Motors surged 4% after Jaguar Land Rover reported a 16% jump in global sales for March on strong demand from China.

Sterlite -

Sterlite Technologies ended up 6% after it received new orders worth Rs 6.3 billion in Q4 FY13.

KFA –

The Kingfisher Airline stock took off 4.64% after the company sought DGCA’s nod for restarting operations in the beleaguered airline. It submitted plans to the regulatory body for infusion of funds and revival of its flights.

RIL –

Reliance Industries has shut its ninth well on the main gas fields in the eastern offshore KG-D6 block, leading to output plummeting to all-time low of 15.5 million standard cubic metres per day.

RIL on April 2 shut the well A1 on the main producing fields of Dhirubhai-1 and 3 (D1&D3) in Krishna Godavari basin block KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 for "reservoir build-up study," according to a status report of the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH).

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +5,300

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t follow first our trend, actual trend will be only after that.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

One can join MG on FB, just search MudraGuru in FB, you will find MG there in top list.

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader / follower” OR any reference that how you come to know about MG as currently MG is not accepting outside friendship request. This is just because your message will ensure that you know MG and you are not unknown person who just sending joining request to steal info of MG FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (11 April 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Difference between Mrityu & Moksha – Saanse khatma ho jaye aur Tammana baki rahe to Mrityu, aur agar Saanse baki rahe par Tammana khatma ho jaye to Moksha.

Note - Today BTST is not possible i.e. if you have bought equities in cash market y'day, you can not sell it today, so be careful else penalty would be there.

 

So as discussed y’day MB, a bounce was expected and today market turned GREED and ended with healthy gain. Here I would like to emphasize, plz refer old range 5600-5630 and then 5735. This rally is not trend changer, the only reason for this rally was FII didn’t sell y’day and FII came to buying counter ahead of key result next week starting from this Friday when Infy will kick the street. Till 5735 is not breached on closing basis trend remain subdued or say down.

The Indian equity market snapped a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. The NSE Nifty, which slipped below the 5500 mark in the mid afternoon trades bounced back sharply led by gains in the Telecom, IT, Banking, Capital Goods and the Realty stocks. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks witnessed buying momentum. Only the FMCG index ended with losses.

The Auto stocks were in momentum despite a declined in car sales. According to SIAM India’s car sales fell by 6.7% in the financial year that ended in March. Stocks like Tata Moors, Bajaj Auto and Maruti were among the top gainers.

 Gainers –

RIL, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Tata Power, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto and Tata Steel were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel, HUL, ITC, BHEL, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Sterlite Inds, ONGC, Hero MotoCorp and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to offload frontline Indian shares for the sixth consecutive session, making it the longest selling trend in the last 11 months.

Poor returns from the Indian market so far this year and rising political risk may have forced FIIs to offload their stocks. On Tuesday, FIIs net sold equities worth Rs. 6.65 billion, taking the total selling number over the last six trading sessions to over Rs. 15 billion. The benchmark Sensex declined 3.4% or 638 points.

Foreign investors seemed to be concerned with delay in corporate earnings revival and India’s high current account deficit. India’s GDP (gross domestic product) and consumer price index (CPI) numbers are not so good. The country’s current account deficit is presently bad and will definitely remain a challenge. Current account deficit widened to a record high 6.7% of GDP in the December 2012 quarter due to heavy oil and gold imports and muted exports, but the balance of payments turned positive.

On the other hand, domestic institutional investors on Tuesday pumped Rs. 9.89 billion in equities - the highest daily inflow in over 16 months. This also takes their buying streak to six straight sessions – the longest since May 2012.

Global Front –

Globally, today, all eyes are focused on the significant US Federal Reserve policy minutes, whereby investors will derive cues from the apex body’s intent going forward. In this respect, we infer that the probability of a cutback in monetary stimulus has faded, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls during March.

The Bank of Japan said Tuesday it will hold a meeting with market participants on April 11 to explain a series of unprecedented easing steps that the central bank decided upon last week. It seems there has been a delayed response to the prospects of monetary injection by the Bank of Japan. The apex body  has  pledged to pump about $1.4 trillion into the economy over two years. Effectively, the repercussion is evident  in  the currency markets as well, with the Japanese yen tumbling and now trading just close to 100 levels.

Most Asian markets ended with smart gains on Wednesday, following a surge in Chinese imports. China swung to a trade deficit of US$880mn in March as imports surged 14.1% from a year earlier. The deficit, which followed February’s US$15.3bn surplus, missed a forecast for a surplus of US$14.7bn.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Domestic institutional investors on Tuesday pumped Rs. 9.89 billion in equities - the highest daily inflow in over 16 months. This also takes their buying streak to six straight sessions – the longest since May 2012.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2% and ended at 16.49 against previous close of 16.82.

(Not – my personal view is that Vix can move up max 17 to 17.5 which itself meant a small recovery can be there)

FNO PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.90.

(PCR is also suggesting its in middle)

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained by 7 paisa and was trading at 54.51 against its previous close of 54.58.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1586.70 up 18.09 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically if you see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support seems around 5200-5250.

Below 5500 there’s gap which comes 5450, Nifty can try to feel the gap in coming days, not exactly today but in April series.

Once again emphasizing here – its corporate earning month and would remain highly volatile, some mild bounces could be there which can be used to book profits on longs and then to create shorts.

Intraday Resistance – 5684 – 5627 – 5592 and Support – 5500 – 5443 – 5408 (Pivot 5535)

Opening – Again seems with mild gap up, but today we need to be cautious after EU opening.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Rel Infra –

Reliance Infrastructure bounced back sharply ending higher by 4% on Wednesday. Anil Ambani led company has offered to lower the power prices for Goa government form the existing Rs13.53 per unit to Rs8.58. Goa government has agreed to the proposal since it would save Rs. 57 crore due to decreased power prices. Goa’s state government earlier declared to stop the purchase of power from Reliance from April 1, 2013. The decision was taken to follow the Joint Electricity Regulations Commission (JERC) guidelines and to lower the burden on state exchequer

ITC & Ruchi Soya -

Two Indian companies Ruchi Soya and ITC limited continued its presence in the Deloitte Top 250 list. Ruchi Soya ranked #121 this year, performed remarkably well as compared to its position #175 in the Top 250 list published last year. Another Indian company that retained its place in the list was ITC Limited ranked at #150, a fall from it earlier ranking of #143. Videocon Industries Ltd that made its debut to the Top 250 list last year, thanks to its aggressive organic growth failed to find a place this year though.

Cairn India –

In Q4, average daily gross operated production was 202,014 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), 12% higher than the corresponding prior period. Working interest production was 18% higher at 126,623 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The increase was driven by ramp-up at the Rajasthan block, where gross production was 22% higher at 168,594 bopd in Q4.

Tata Steel –

Tata Steel completed FY’13 with an overall increase in Production and Sales volumes. The year registered its best ever performance in Hot Metal, Crude Steel, Saleable Steel production and total Sales. The key production and sales figures are given below:

Major Highlights - FY’13 Production
Ore Mines & Quarries (OMQ) achieved its highest ever iron ore dispatch of 15.0 million tonnes (Previous best 13.18 million tonnes in FY’12). West Bokaro Division (one of the Collieries) achieved its highest ever clean coal production of 2.33 million tonnes (Previous best 2.29 million tonnes in FY’12).

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= -5700 + 13,600 (Profit on 9 Apr) = +5,300

(Correction – some ppl have exited hpcl 300CE so deducting 2600 from PL)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its going high before making good profit and to take fresh short.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

One can join MG on FB, just search MudraGuru in FB, you will find MG there in top list.

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader / follower” OR any reference that how you come to know about MG as currently MG is not accepting outside friendship request. This is just because your message will ensure that you know MG and you are not unknown person who just sending joining request to steal info of MG FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (10 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Though I am junior to most of you in stock market, Please do not prefix or suffix SIR, instead I want live in your hearts.

So finally we have seen the levels for what I was warning repeatedly. Even y’day we have discussed that from 5550 nifty may see a bounce and that bounce can be used to exit longs and to take fresh shorts, we also discussed that 5600-5630 range is crucial and one can book all their longs once Nifty reaches in this range then can go for shorts. The same thing has happened today, market was up around 55+ points and all of sudden i.e. after EU open it fell down 100 points. As told you few times, now FII are on selling counter and DII is in wait and watch mode.

Well, the markets started off flat but crashed into the red on bouts of selling. The Nifty has fallen for five days on a trot. Its fall below 5,500 levels is worrisome as these levels were last seen in September 2012.

Dealers attribute today’s market sell-off to selling by London-based exchange traded funds. Fears of poor Q4 earnings is another reason cited for their exit.

There’s also talk on RBI review policy disappointment which dampened the sentiment. Non-banking finance companies today said the Reserve Bank is likely to keep its key lending rate intact in the forthcoming monetary policy review, but expect a 0.25 per cent reduction in the cash reserve ratio.

The RBI will unveil its annual monetary policy on May 3. Currently, the repo rate is 7.5 per cent, while the CRR is 4 per cent. The demands by the FIDC, which is the apex body of NBFCs, is in tandem with the views of bankers, who also asked for a cut in the CRR for effective monetary transmission.

Rupee –

The rupee weakened marginally on Tuesday as a sharp selloff in domestic shares raised concerns about foreign investor outflows at a time when the country is looking to narrow a record current account deficit.

Dollar demand from oil companies also hurt the rupee, although that was somewhat offset by selling of the greenback by foreign banks.

Foreign investors have now sold a net total of $137 million in Indian shares in the four trading sessions to Monday and a net total of $710.68 million in domestic debt over the same period, according to regulatory data.

Domestic Front –

Reserve Bank of India has rejected the suggestions of auctioning new bank licenses as it may defeat the idea of financial inclusion due to high cost of services.

Subbarao noted that perhaps there was only one country in the world, which had attempted to distribute banking licenses through auctions. The governor informed Members of Parliament that number of new banking licenses to be issued was not yet fixed and the central bank is expecting more than 30 applications. (Moneycontrol.com)

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

FIIs continue to pull out money from India-dedicated funds. Global fund managers have been pulling out funds from emerging market equities and deploying the same in US and Japanese markets.

The markets are now focussing on Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy minutes to look for cues on its intent going forward. India Infoline feels the probability of a cut-back in monetary stimulus has faded, especially after disappointing March non-farm payroll data.

Fresh shorting was seen in Nifty futures today with open interest rising about 10%. Put unwinding is seen in the 5500 strike which shed 1.5% open interest. Among sectors, fresh shorts were seen in banking, infrastructure and oil and gas.

As per the trend of last few days, Indian markets are falling in the second half even if Europe opens okay. That is because the general fear in the market is that some of the Europe-based exchange-traded fund (ETFs) are the ones selling in the market. That is what dealers and traders tell you and that is what the volumes also suggest.

Everyday you are seeing lots of Puts being accumulated. It started with 5,500. It trickled down to 5,300. The 5,200 Put added close to 30 lakh shares in open interest. This clearly is the bear market and there is no other way to describe it and that is what the internals of this market have also been suggesting.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 0.29% and ended at 16.82 against previous close of 16.77.

(Not – my personal view is that Vix can move up max 17 to 17.5 which itself meant a small recovery can be there)

FNO PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.90.

(PCR is also suggesting its in middle)

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 2 paisa and was trading at 54.58 against its previous close of 54.86.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1572.26 up 9.19 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically if you see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support seems around 5200-5250.

Below 5500 there’s gap which comes 5450, Nifty can try to feel the gap in coming days, not exactly today but in April series.

Once again emphasizing here – its corporate earning month and would remain highly volatile, some mild bounces could be there which can be used to book profits on longs and then to create shorts.

Intraday Resistance – 5685 – 5644 – 5569 and Support – 5453 – 5412 – 5337 (Pivot 5528)

Opening – A bounce expected as bears will give a tough fight and can try to bring Nifty once again its physiological level of 5550. Since global market ended flat with positive bias, a small gap up is expected.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TVS Motors –

TVS Motor Company was the major loser in trade today. It ended down 11.5% at Rs 35.15. Reports suggest the company’s market share slipped over 2.5% to 15.46% since FY08. News that Honda Motorcycle and Scooters India has dislodged TVS from its number three position weighed on sentiment.

BHEL -

Bharat Heavy Electricals ended 2.1% down at Rs 178.5 on lower provisional FY13 earnings.

JSW Steel –

JSW Steel ended 1.4% lower despite its in Q4 crude steel production rose 2% at 2.11mt from 2.07mt. The share closed at Rs 662, down Rs 9.5 or 1.4%.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= -5700 + 13,600 (Profit on 9 Apr) = +7,900

(Booked profit in HPCL future = 11K, 300CE = 2600)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Trend is not clear or say is down, just due to oversold zone and continuous fall it may show some bounce which can be used to book profit on your longs and to create fresh shorts. 5600-5630 is the level.

============ Join MG on FaceBook ============

One can join MG on FB, just search MudraGuru in FB, you will find MG there in top list.

Please make sure you need to send a message on FaceBook – “I am blog reader / follower” OR any reference that how you come to know about MG as currently MG is not accepting outside friendship request. This is just because your message will ensure that you know MG and you are not unknown person who just sending joining request to steal info of MG FB group.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.