Monday 8 October 2012

Morning Bells (09 Oct 12)



Good Morning Friends.

If someone pointed your mistake then be happy by knowing the fact that atleast someone is there who is interested in what you have done… Take things differently & make things right.

So much awaited correction has started taking place or you can say market has taken a breather, after the recent rally and before move further.

I was expecting a 50 point correction but its extended loss further on global concern. As repeatedly informing in M Bells that I am not removing test regarding EU concern, y’day EU fell down on further worries and Nifty too extended it loss 40+ points.

Now market look forward on corporate earnings and on various growth no.s – GDP, Inflation, IIP, Monsoon etc. I am considering this correction is good for Nifty to drive further as I am expecting few more reforms coming in the next few weeks.

Euro Zone debt crisis remain main concern for the global economy as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is desperately hoping that solution will emerge and save him from a Catch-22 situation - the pressures of the regional elections in his birthplace of Galicia on October 21 and accepting the bailout package from the ECB at the EU summit in Brussels on October 18. (Report MoneyControl.com)

The US economy too seems to be losing some steam. So I see Asian market will look to China for next stimulus, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimuli by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

So once again, October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill. On global front any move from China to support its economy will be an added positive, particularly for commodities.

MARKET OUTLOOK
I have nothing much to say for market outlook at the moment. Much awaited correction is taking place now it would be interesting to see how deep it would be.

Now there are many strong support zones for Nifty below 5700 Mark. First support comes at 5640 from where Nifty can see a pullback, then 5585 is another good support.

As informed y’day that if Nifty don’t close above 5825 then chances are to visit 5650 are high, and Nifty has taken U turn from 5815. So be sit with cash to enter at lower levels as buying opportunities are coming good for equities.

Market trend remain buy on dips, so small correction could be used to make fresh entry at lower levels till 5585 is not broken out.

NIFTY
As told above 2 Crore OI in first week was giving sense for something wrong. Well a little bit of a pause is good. Well Vix is reached 17.17 and Nifty PCR 0.94.

5640 has come as good support. If broken then next big support comes to 5585. Chances for a pullback is more from 5640. On upside if 5700 has been taken out the Nifty could correct to 5585. After consolidation we will head towards 5900-6000 by Diwali.

Resistance at 5700 - 5729 – 5783 and Supports at 5640 – 5585.

Opening seems muted one or under pressure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

KFA No buyer since past 3 trading sessions.

Brent crude May pick up.

Banks Banks always follow trends on both side, so if market decline further bank will lead decline.

IT Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

Insurance and PharmaFII now eying on further reforms in sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both sector.

OPEN CALLS
(Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit)

TM 300CE - @3.75 for TG 4.5-5+ SL 2.25 (Made high 4.55, hope you would have booked profit)

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Nifty 5900CE - @31 for TG 55+ SL 8 (If not exited then now its blind bet, exit above 25 or wait if Nifty closes above 5700 mark)

Today’s MG Mantra
5720 & 5585 these are two level which will decide current trends, so stay away from trade or make only intraday positions only.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

47 comments:

  1. Today I have added Important Link page too, plz have look where you will find Bulk Deal section and FII data (provided by DonAlibag) if you have such links then plz share will be happy to add under this section.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Prabhakar -
    I am not feeling anything wrong with your comment but I personally feel bad when someone make loss on my call. If you wanna trade in FNO then either ask first or at least avoid call when I specially mention "Risk Takers", and try to book small profits, this way you will gain small but in a 2-3 months it will be huge. Secondly keep 5K for your wish but all profit invest in cash segment only.

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  3. Dear Rajvanshi, that's I try to find small to mid cap stocks just for you all friends who have less and wanna earn more. But you need to wait for some time for that. For friends like you I suggest whenever I give cash calls in 80% cases it goes up sufficiently on same day, book intraday profit as rest journey could be slow after first spike.

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  4. Good morning to sll....Na,askar saaabjee....

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  5. Hello Sir ,
    Crude is at 112.75$ which is nearly a breakeven point for OMC's.
    Sir , we cant expect crude to go much low considering middle east tensions (syria war, kuwait elections ).
    The most IMP is IRAN and sanctions led by US.
    Iran has its 70% gdp from oil sell to few countries and India is major one.
    Next wave of US sanctions will completely bar INDIA from oil imports from IRAN (currently 40%).
    The currency of IRAN slipped 60% till now.
    IRAN will put pressure if oil decrease , by words of war , war games , missile tests and mostly threatening to close Straight of Homouz.
    So , we can say that it is manipulating crude prices .
    Crude can come below 100 only if IRAN agrees for nuclear sanctions.
    Yes , there are many new discoveries in MEXICO , BRAZIL and many places which will be the next oil rich countries ,
    But , it will take 2 to 5 years for actual supply till then Middle east is main source.
    Thus , OMC's are negative for next two months. Till US elections it will be volatile.
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  6. great, that's a good analysis on the Oil sector.

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  7. Sir , we cant expect crude to go much low considering middle east tensions (syria war, kuwait elections ...until US elections crude may artificially remain low but once it is done can easily go past $100+ (WTI) $125+ (Brent). Analysts predicting $78 (WTI) before US elections.

    Note: My knowledge is limited here, posted what ever I read elsewhere!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi , Prabhakar

      there is intresting site (www.moneybhai.com) , it is a moneycontrol group site.
      Here we get to test our skills and trading tratiges.
      It is a virtual market game , register here and you get 25 laks (virtual money) and can trade as normal market
      during mkt hrs . Also prices change with live stock prices.
      This is like net practice while trading with your real money.
      This is good experience guide and you can know your capability.
      There you know your days , weekly and monthly gains.
      You can view my profile there (kharadeaniket).
      Again , it is only for those who are new (fresh) in mkt and also you must have ample time.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  8. GM All, thanks Don, yes we all are now getting very good info from your end, keep it up. I have put your FII link under link section, actually I have created that page after ur link.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hello friends,
    News for today :

    Petrol price cut.
    China, Malaysia, Thailand Currencies Undervalued: IMF
    Nse issues cautious status for few companies of low volume.

    BOJ (bank of japan) to announce further policy , NYKEEI eyed.
    Europe eyed as ECB president speaks.

    Metals and mines in focus . HANGSEN up more than 1%
    in first trades , hoping for stimulus , as told by MG in Morning Bells.

    Hey, have a look at nse circular more stocks shifted to T2T segment from 12 oct.
    (http://www.nseindia.com/circulars/circular.htm)
    (this is yet to be highlighted in media channels , today there is news of only cautious stance on 300 illiquid stocks .)


    Hello Sir,
    Any decision on Infy option spread ?
    Thank you for your comment , today I would tell some more interesting links , sites.
    Thank you again.

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  10. Today one can bet for Intraday (small gain is suggesgted 5+Rs, dont carry) -
    Cairn India, and Tata Comm & Shriram Transport Fin.

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  11. Good Morning MG Sir, I exited from Nifty yesterday, anything to buy..Rgds

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Palak, y'day apollo made low, now I hope it will soon above 90

      Delete
    2. Hi MG,

      so can I buy AT 90 Call at 2.2 ??

      Delete
  12. I placed 5900CE order to sell at 25 is it OK or should we wait until it turn to profit? What is the strategy you guys following on this? Please update me, thanks.

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  13. Sir, I know that u don't track ITC, but just news flash that they have increased price of Sunfeast biscuits and one of its prodcut too, so will it be safe to buy it ? Secondly should I buy one lot of AT to to lower the average price ? Rgds

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But dont hurry, first have a look to EU openings, that can dampen our sentiment.

      Delete
  14. Palak - ITC is good for investment, yes you can take risk for AT

    Prabhakar, for Nifty watch our second resistance 5729 to cross, if its crosses then will be above 5750 mark and that would be best time to sell.

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  15. For any fresh trade one need to wait for EU cues, AT has slow movement, wont go much, so wait is good then decide your strategy.

    Same for Nifty - if EU opens lower then will go below 5700, so low brokerage player can sell 59CE to pick at lower levels

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  16. Okay Sir, will wait, due to lack of fund in hand, should I buy CE of ITC ? Rgds

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  17. For All - Options remains always risky as well as tricky, it calculate on days and reduce premium and operators deliberately manipulate till their power just to eat premiums. Like they can keep AT for hover around current levels for a week, AT call will reduced to 0.5 then suddenly one day it will reach to 95.

    I try to remain careful for options. Lag gaya to Amir nahi to GPL

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  18. True Sir, I will wait till some of my cash gets free, then buy in cash. Thanks for ur valuable guidance. Rgds

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  19. Nikkei turned deep RED we need to be cautious now onward, specially with EU

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello sir ,
    cairn, sesa goa and hind zinc have released Production for the Second Quarter and Half Year ended September 30, 2012.
    EU fut positive (0.18 avg) , but ecb president may boost it (expected). lets see..
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Seems 20% up... will help to move up, what do u say?

      Delete
    2. Sir ,
      there is news that ecb president may go soft on bond buying and also give green signal for itlay and spain funding .
      But it may be volitile , it is for sure that EU at close will be up more than 1% .
      visit this site for all live futures quotes
      (http://www.forexpros.com/indices/indices-futures)

      Delete
  21. Just bought one lot of DLF(oct) at 224.25

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hello sir ,
    tomm is result of INDUSIND bank an two directors have bought(bse disclosures)
    share worth 8 lakhs each 0n 29 sep and 5 oct (exercise of stock options)
    So sir what is your view on it ?
    can we buy or short with for tomm?

    Also sir ,
    INFY crossed my break even point (gaining 5 rs). But less quantity , thinking of increasing.
    what can we expect on 12 oct?

    Mkt seems in pressure , Sir your call of PFC is rocking...
    Psu banks under pressure...

    would like to know your view sir.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Govt. is likely to increase the exposure for LIC to 20% (from current 10%)..and it'll double its investment in the stock market.... LIC is expected to invest 50K crore more in FY13.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ** Meant...LIC's exposure to the equity markets.

      Delete
  24. Sir, holding TM CE @ 9.45 (2 lots),should I buy 1 more to lower down my price ? Rgds

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  25. Hello friends ,
    INDUSIND bank may go up or down 5% in tomm trade ,
    so be careful and better wait for result .
    There is high risk in this trade .



    ReplyDelete
  26. nifty @5687, going down fast

    ReplyDelete
  27. I doubt if following statement from rediff is the reason for the sudden fall

    "Maya: Decision on supporting UPA tomorrow"

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  28. Its europe which pulled us down.
    Mario Draghi says there is lot to be done by countries before funding......(negative)

    Sir , there is huge volume with price movement in Tata motors , can we make fresh entry ?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  29. TM has announced wage hike for JLR staff....likely to affect the margins of JLR

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  30. Sometimes mtk behave in bizarre fashion to let down mkt pundits... GHANCHAKKAR BANA DETA HE YE...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Replies
    1. APTART has just recommended sell on TM for target of 258 with SL 276.

      Delete
  32. Sir, what happen to R S Software, its falling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Today it has result, will check, but dont worry, will back in short term. Also drop me a mail instead of msg.

      Delete
  33. Sir, I have sent mail yesterday late afternoon, at MGSBClub@gmail.com at 2 pm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. may be due to too many request I am unable to identify, plz drop with sub - your name Palak.

      Delete
  34. TM 300CE holders (who hadn't exited @4.5) -

    TM act as per EU sentiment, remember it for future becoz JLR nos belongs more to EU other than any country. Whenever EU feel sick TM too. So lets hope tomorrow may be EU will show strength after long under pressure.

    But remember if shows strength and try to reach in above 280 band then just exit. Next week would be crucial for all global market and we need to close our longs in this week only if there's no surprise.

    ReplyDelete