Morning Bells (15 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

I am not handsome but my thoughts & my hand are more than sufficient to make things beautiful because beauty lies in heart and not on face. – Written by MG

Oh!!so Deepawali jushna is over and we just saved our cash positions a day before y’day. So no firework on Diwali at D-Street. If you would have remember it was one and half month back statement about US election and EU crises, now both are trying to weaken the global economy. I have remembered a great Quwali of great Aziz Naza – “Pine Walon Ko Pine ka Bahana Chahiye” the same is happening currently. We are in same circumstances and in situation earlier to US Election infact a bit in better condition but as was told long ago if Obama come to power we will see weakness in the market, and now one can see what’s going on.

Well as told now market seems a bit more volatile than last series but still we are in a range. Well overall all the data which came is past 3 days are against market expectation and that’s market will see some pressure.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday. Analysts on average had expected an annual WPI rise of 7.96 percent.

Industrial production unexpectedly shrank an annual 0.4 percent in September, compared with a forecast of a rise of 2.8 percent  of experts.

India's annual consumer price inflation rose in October to 9.75 percent, government data showed. IIP for Sept was -0.4 v/s 2.7 mom.

There’re lot headlines on various webs filled with big experts advises saying “Worst is over and market is going to make new highs”, please read those articles carefully, its not short term view, they are expresses their view in one year perspective.

Rupee is falling more aggressively and I guess now its time for RBI to activate and this will help our market atleast to hold else we will lose what we have gained in past 6 months.

Now market will look for winter session of parliament and is eying on RBI to cut in interest rate in Jan 13, there are high chances that RBI can cut interest rate in Jan. and to my personal view Dec. can be a disappointing months in view of RBI Monitory policy.

Another interesting research report - Indian economy is set to expand at the world's fastest rate over the next 50 years to emerge as a major force globally, but it would still rank as the second worst in terms of prosperity of its citizens.

Over the 50-year period between 2011-2060, India will register an annual economic growth rate of 4.9 per cent, as per a latest report by Paris-based international grouping of the world's leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (MoneyControl.com)

Meaning is simple if one can understand – the corrupt system will be continue, it will bring prosperity for corporate and not for its citizens while India’s GPS is growth will be 7 fold in this period, according to research team. Strange but we need to believe that it could be happened.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Since outcome of Industrial product, Inflation were not upto the expectation I had informed our readers that its better time to sit on cash as domestic as well as global market showing weakness time being. Remember it still not a bear market till our strong support zones are not broken down.

Please watch for following levels - 5685 - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630. If 5580 breakdown, there're I think 4 Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 by filling the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash.

Above all just a word of caution - once Nifty makes new high, we should be careful with FII, as first they fueled our mkt with cash and then with a silly reason they go away with cash at least once in a year, so just keep this also in mind. I dont see it too early may be around March/April +/- 2 months or just right now.

I am talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, if and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3.5% and end at 14.86 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

Opening is seems gap down of around 30+ points, and then most probably market may remain in right range of +/- 20 points.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	8409	238.17	6711	177.24	429673	10773.47	60.93
INDEX OPTIONS	46933	1328.74	31014	882.84	1852526	52522.77	445.90
STOCK FUTURES	2163	57.22	1531	38.50	1087528	29700.55	18.72
STOCK OPTIONS	4249	121.90	5342	152.54	92919	2560.28	-30.64

  

OI in Index future decreased by 10,110 contracts and FII bought 1698 contracts in Index Future.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As suggested Nifty seems in the range of 5500-5600-5900 is coming true, we have noticed unwinding in 6000CE & in 5900CE. If you study (even can do on blog, refer old posts) its just a reverse case of Oct. series, in Oct. there were huge addition we had seen to 5400PE, 5500PE and 5600PE, just reverse we can see to 5800CE, 5900CE & 6000CE, it’s a method of ceiling i.e. to cap upside or downside, to now it would be interesting to see how Nifty is going to take these actions.

Resistance comes to 5713 - 5742 – 5766 and Supports comes to 5660 - 5635 – 5606- 5584. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625 & 5580, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5779 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening is seems gap down of around 30+ points, and then most probably market may remain in right range of +/- 20 points.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Infra Sector –

Lanco Infratech - has posted a net loss of Rs 136 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2012, while its revenues rose.

NCC - Consolidated profits after minority taxes of another infra major NCC Ltd declined by 62 per cent to Rs 11.35 crore for the quarter ended September 30, while its revenues increased.

GVK Power and Infrastructure - reported net loss of Rs 43.66 crore for period under review mainly due to interest burden and shortage of gas supply to the group's power projects.

GVK holds the unique distinction of managing and operating two of India's busiest airports, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA) in Mumbai and the Bengaluru International Airport in Bangalore. 

Adding another feather to its cap, GVK has signed an operations and management contract with The Airports Authority of Indonesia, (Angkasa Pura Airports API), the Indonesian government airport operator to manage the non-aeronautical commercial operations at Indonesia's second busiest Bali (Denpasar) International Airport.

The scope includes both, the existing terminals and the new international terminal which is currently under construction and is expected to open in the third quarter of 2013 with a major make-over.

Tata Motors –

TM is also planning to launch 7-8 new products/variants on its highly successful Ace mini truck platform, Ravi Pisharody, ED - commercial vehicles, said on last Thursday.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45 – Had booked profit at 62.8 ahead of weak global cues, Call Closed.

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Dishman Pharma – Bought 98.7 TG short term booked profit at 108 SL 91, mid-term TG is 130 (Call was initiated by Venkata)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Patience is the key for current market sentiment, don’t get too excited. Only selective buying is suggested.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.