Wednesday 7 November 2012

Morning Bells (7 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.


Don’t feel bad that people remember you only when they need you. Feel privileged that you are like a candle that comes to mind when there’s darkness in their life.

Once again Nifty closed a bit higher y’day. Realty stocks gained higher at 2% while Auto stock loosed the steam.

Well now only debate is going on which is Obama or Romney, its election of 57th President or say 2012 US President election. I studied little news and about some pre-poll assumption, people are talking about a Tie. So what if there is a tie? If there is a tie amongst the electoral votes or if no candidate receives the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will choose the President, and the United States Senate will choose the Vice President. So if there’s a tie then January 6th would be an important date for US Presidential candidates.

In the last hundred years it happened just once that a Republican candidate defeated a Democratic incumbent. Ronald Reagan did that in 1980 by beating Jimmy Carter.

Well come to home ground, as told y’day during market hours about Obama v/s Romney – now its not matter of dip, now its matter of how much upmove we can see because in both condition market is moving up but a bit less if Obama wins, because to my view all worries are already priced in as market is not showing relief sign since past one week, so as told dips can be used to buy, and I guess people are buying on dips. They are hoping an up-move, once elections will over, so we can have around 100 points up-move for this festive series.

But there’s only one hurdle, as told y’day now focus has shifted to Greece voting, today is the day. Rupee decline is another part of worry.

This week has QE from some of blue chips, major corporate result announcements this week include Cipla , Tata Power , Reliance Infrastructure , Hindalco , Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, ONGC , Ranbaxy , Tata Steel , Jindal Steel & Power, Coal India and SBI.

For a mid-term view – since financial markets have suffered over the last four years with the mortgage crisis, the Lehman crisis, Greece, Europe and policy paralysis in India. Now there is a lot of optimism about Europe and America that markets will make new highs.

There are also hopes for fall in commodity prices because equity fell down and commodity enjoys the bull phase so now either the end of the bull market or there could be a correction, and with hope of that foreign buying is coming because we are the country that is going to benefit the most from the fall in commodity prices. Let’s see what happens.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Today we have 2 important news, US Prez election result and then Greece voting, once it’s over FII flows will resume. As already suggested market is in trading range, watch for breakdown or breakout of either side, and keep eye on 5680 & 5730 both are trend deciding levels on closing basis.

After US Polls, post that we will be again on home ground and reforms may take the centre-stage again with developments on several important bills for which parliamentary approval is needed is expected to be taken up in the winter session.

Market is consolidating since long seems now players looking for some ground reality on reform announcement. So one needs to see physical activity happening on ground for that to pick up

The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 6% to end at 15.48 and F&O PCR is 0.93.


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 6 Nov 2012


BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
Difference

No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores

INDEX FUTURES
25961
696.17
29884
851.07
439549
11096.66
-154.90
INDEX OPTIONS
307229
8804.22
344141
9842.26
1724438
49369.90
-1038.03
STOCK FUTURES
34049
913.94
33894
934.80
1064004
29010.56
-20.85
STOCK OPTIONS
33480
923.28
40985
1116.74
77010
2157.77
-193.46


Once again FII have sold Index Future, OI increased by 15627 contracts and Nifty closed marginally up which indicates FII have done profit booking on their longs (may be a bit cautious approach) and created fresh shorts.

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty Derivatives Statics as on 6 Nov 2012 (Key Facts)
Strike
OI
Change in OI
IV
Strike
OI
Change in OI
IV
Longs created
Shorts created
5700-CE
38,97,500
-4,57,750
14.08
5400-PE
53,80,950
98,800
17.11
5800-CE
57,86,000
5,19,650
13.5
5500-PE
49,43,150
-50,200
15.45
5900-CE
71,08,600
3,71,400
13.33
5600-PE
72,31,500
4,60,250
14.23
6000-CE
65,74,900
6,07,400
13.35
5700-PE
55,66,250
6,00,400
13.19

5700CE seen unwinding due to profit booking at higher price while approx 6 lac contracts added to both 6000CE and 5700PE which itself indicates that today’s session could be same as last two.

Resistance comes to 5738 - 5753 – 5776 and Supports comes to 5701 - 5679 – 5664 - 5625. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625, can lead to 5500-5450, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5725 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening seems mildly bearish and under pressure ahead of Greece worry.

OPEN CALLS
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

DB Realty - @102.5 for TG 115+ SL 94

View On Public Demand
With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.
Note – Remember as told market may open lower today and we need to take advantage of that for good level entry into stocks.

IVRCL Infra – CMP 41.6 TG 44.5 SL 38, R 42.5 – 43.3 – 43.9 (Result on 10 Nov)
(Stock may show weakness in opening. Lot of infrastructure stocks have giving signs of life as realty prices are now started moving up a bit, also there’re lot of hopes with single window infra clearance. So don’t make long positin but it’s a momentum play. IVRCL seems good bet for 1-2 sessions. One can make strategy with 2CE v/s 1PE for good profit.)

Hindalco – CMP 117.7 TG - Not beyond 122 SL NA, R 119 – 120 – 122 S 116 – 114.5 – 113.5
(Result on 6 Nov)
(Result factor is already priced in and do not have potential for a good move right from here, it will strong resistance at 121 & 122, if it crosses 122 then 125-126 is the point from where it may have correction. So I would prefer to wait for right time to go short.)

Dishman Pharma – CMP 98.7 TG seems - 108 SL 91, R 100 – 101.5 – 103 S 97 – 95 – 94

Today’s MG Mantra
Market may remain in a tight range unless there’s news. Enjoy the see-saw and nothing harm in making small profit through small trades.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

43 comments:

  1. Dow Futures & SGX Nifty moves indicating if Romny wins, market might rally.

    When Obama was leading early Dow Futures down over 65 points, after Romny get lead recovered 25 points.

    ReplyDelete
  2. OBAMA won... probably market UP as per analyst

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. However it is negative from US point of view, so may be tomorrow US market goes down as future indicating.

      Delete
  3. Hello sir ,
    IT sector can see some pressure but our mkts are moving with US futures .
    Also greece vote is also imp.
    Keep eye on Essar OIl , CMP 66.20 , results are today.

    Exited FT and made long in SBI for tomm results.

    Sir if any more idea on Tatamot will help to make position , as it will give results after mkt closing . I have bought Puts today.
    Plz guide.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DON,

      Essar oil is gonna post good results this quarter for sure. No idea about sbi/tatam

      Delete
    2. Don, TM result will remain slightly good from last quarter, but it may show weakness (or a bit range bound session) but you can get benefit as in next 2 sessions mkt can see a small correction.

      Delete
    3. Hi , Selva Raj

      SBI results are good and also NPA is good compared to last quarter.
      How I know this?
      ans:- during an interview chairman of SBI Pradeep Chavdhari mistakenly disclosed its results saying profit and npa are improved.
      Also there is volume based buying in SBI.

      Hello sir,

      I have no idea of TataMotors , but yestarday 6% OI change and also today buildup in PUTS , so decided to buy PUTS of only 6k , but very risky as it will give gap up/down tomm.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  4. Be ready to close your position in DB Realty, TG almost achieved in 3-4 days. Enjoy 12% return.

    IVRC - hope you would have done same as suggested and would be in good profit.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Since Obama won - now focus your full force on Infra & Power sector, both sectors are good bet in near term.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Y'day someone had asked about averaging IVRC, plz share details qty & bought price as I see more upside in that.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Replies
    1. Hello sir , europe is little red but can recover little.
      EU opening can give a small dip in nifty .
      Google News:
      Greece protests grow before latest austerity vote.
      If 14bn$ package is accepted by austerity then Greece will get more funds from ECB which is imp to cover its borrowing due on 17 nov. But there is protest on streets and so less chances of success .
      But if voted in favor of austerity then all EU will go up 2 - 3 % tomm. we will get result of voting today evening.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  8. Sir Reliance Capital 420 CE rose upto 60% almost today with more than 43% OI changed with 193500 change in OI...can I take it?? need your suggestion Sir
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RCap move up to 425 Nifty support is needed.

      Delete
    2. So can I take it?? also I think 418 is a resistance zone.

      Delete
  9. Dear Don - somehow I feel TM will not react sharply after result, the only grace is if EU goes RED.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello sir ,
      Thank you sir for your concern , as i made loss on Tech Mahendra , I am holding only puts.
      I have only 6k position so less risk.
      As it did not performed today , still holding position for tomm.
      I have no idea of result , results will be out after mkt hours , lets see what happens tomm.

      Sir , are you long or short on Tatamotors ?

      Thank you.

      Delete
  10. I am out of trade as my sense was Obama 50 pts rally Romney 100+ pts (had posted on blog) which I missed y'day, so now Obama won - mkt may see a bit correction most probably on Friday. Since TM behaving range bound Options are not worth for me.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hello sir/don
    If the greece voting results were -Ve ,to what extent it will impact our market tomorrow??

    I'm holding 2 lots of 5600 PE at 25. Can i hold till friday??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All in Mess, Negative vote means around 50+ point fall, TG could be 40+, even market is expected for a big correction itself, may be tomorrow of on Friday. But market is also waiting for Diwali buying (but not may FII). Lets see what happens. Situation is same for us after Obama's win, EU & US can see pressure but we wont that much. So you can hold it with SL 10-12, hardly a risk of 1.5K.

      Delete
  12. Dayanidhi Maran may get indicte for corruption in aircel-maxis deal!!!Watch for Sun TV,may get a chance to short!!!Ur opinion MG?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh Thanks Prasadji, I was thinking to go long on SunTV, will have second thought now.

      Delete
    2. Unfortunate that this news was out after market hours.

      I have made a new position today.

      Delete
  13. I wanted it to ask you all from a long - friends who are following this blog (mean under followers list) - they get any kind of alert from blog ? i.e. via email? To my view they would be getting new post alert and reply to their post (not of all comment) plz any one can elaborate about it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello MG,

      Greetings! I am following your blog, which is excellent.

      No notifications neither for your new post nor for any comments. I have signed up with my Google account.

      Regards,
      Vijay

      Delete
    2. Observation is that if you comment, then there is an option to subscribe to further comments (linked to that specific comment)

      Delete
    3. Yes kindly enable it if you wish to receive every reply else dont.

      Thanks for your kind words, plz never feel its others place, always free its your own place, its a long story, ppl who are with me since long know it very well that why we all are here else we were part of MCB.

      Any time you can also share your views and calls, just a request there, try to be post when at least you are sure for that call.

      Lastly - I am not BOSS here, to be very personal - I feel I am in service here and sometimes my family gets irritate by this nature. Smiles.:)

      Delete
  14. Hi Mudraji,

    I am not getting alerts. I do refresh screen regularly to see if there are any updates.
    If there is a possibility of

    ReplyDelete
  15. I mean is there any possibility of getting alerts

    ReplyDelete
  16. Sir..... I am not getting any alerts but it will be great if it is possible.

    Further... I was having a look at Apollo tyres which was your recommendation some time back..... The stock is now down at 84.2..... Do you think it is going to go down further or it is a buy on dip opportunity?? Can you please advise

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dear Daljit,

    I think i saw it on tv that there is some strike going on in Apollo tyres. Please check correctness of the information before you take position. This is just for your information. Actual suggession will be given by Mudraji.

    ReplyDelete
  18. MG sir, I refresh the page to see the updates. I dont get alerts

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi MG I dont get any alerts,would like to highlight one more point,every time a registered user posts someting,he/she has to verify by entering a code thats displayed,can we do away with it atleast for register users whose mail ids are verified!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree Guru Prasad. I missed to read the numerals, when I first commented on this blog (several attempts failed)

      There is an option, where MG can set the 'word verification' to NO. This option is by default 'Yes'

      http://support.google.com/blogger/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=42520

      Delete
  20. Hi sir,
    Earlier I used to get alerts when ever some one posted comment . But last three days onwords we are not getting alerts because subscribe link is not available.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Mudraji. Do u track L&T finance. I got subscribed mail that i enable daily n morning

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks Friends - becoz to my knowledge when you follow this blog (i.e. became followers) you should get every comment right in your mail else what's the meaning in following it? But I am too feeling some errors on blog (may during update of some links, that's why I deleted that BSE/NSE links and live ticker), but still there's some issue. Well no issue, just bear few days more, hopefully we would have better platform soon.

    Once again thanks for your sincere reply.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Yes I have enabled "one identity i.e. google account or blog account is must" becoz this way we are free from spam messages. If I will remove it then anyone can post comment without identity. Some of you know that on the opening of this blog 2-3 person tried that but since we get their email identification we managed that and now they are away from here.

    ReplyDelete
  24. For Apollo - I strongly feel it will move soon but for FNO traders its not advisable. Please remember its also scrip of PUNTERS.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi MG what I meant was even after enabling one ientity i.e entering one's gmail i to valiadate if one has to post something,one has to enter a code that is given by the system,if we can o away with that,it woul be good!!!

    ReplyDelete