Morning Bells (14 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Never waste you life impressing those who do not value you… instead be with someone who can devalue everyone else just to value you.

For which we were fearing finally today has taken place. Since past 2-3 days we were expecting that market may go for profit booking, initially market remain in tight range and after EU market opening market witnessed sharp decline, and extended its losing streak for 3^rd day.

Also Investors remained cautious and preferred to take some profits as the RBI may choose to delay the much sought rate cuts after rising retail inflation.

Some key factors which lead today’s fall - Global index provider FTSE lowered the weighatage of index heavyweight ITC in its global equity index series from 75% to 24%. Post the announcement, shares of ITC plummeted by over 4% dragging the stock to hit an intra-day low of 292 on the NSE.

RIL, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, are among gainers while TCS, Infosys, Wipro, NTPC,  Sun Pharma, ONGC, NTPC, SBI, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, M&M were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

The Union Cabinet has cleared the Land Acquisition Bill, making mandatory the consent of 80% of people whose land is taken for private projects, according to reports.

The bill was given the go-ahead at the Cabinet presided by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, says report.

Finally much awaited The Cabinet Committee on Investment, (formerly called National Investment Board) has has been cleared by the Cabinet today.

So now need to be cautious at this point as investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end.

Wholesale Price Inflation on -  14 Dec 12

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As told in past 3 MBells and informed that it seems that market have reached to some kind of a resistance point, so its not only profit booking but also seems fatigue, so market can face few more choppy sessions if inflation figure disappoint. Had also warned that now it seems market is turning to down trend in short term very slowly, so, now all depend on Inflation no.s & RBI policy.

So if today inflation remains on higher side (i.e. disappoint then expectation) then market is surely going to test lower levels below 5800 mark and trading range will shift to 5700-5950. And if inflation figure comes as per expectation or surprise then it will remain balanced (don’t expect any huge rally) but yes bank stock will rally. Also remember its Friday. So power of weakness is more than strength.

The only saviour I see for market to hold is – as y’day Govt. has cleared The Cabinet Committee on Investment (formally NIB) and Bill on Urea which give hope that Govt. can announce few more steps to boost economy.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 1.38% and ended at 14.71 against 14.51 and FNO PCR is up at 0.87.

The rupee shown a bit weakness and closed at 54.46 against previous close 54.32.

S&P 500 (US) were trading at 1422 down 6.09 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	27514	813.14	39336	1162.97	415430	12053.08	-349.83
INDEX OPTIONS	503975	14848.79	510315	15054.46	1564037	45818.74	-205.67
STOCK FUTURES	45054	1318.75	64896	1955.36	1151650	32817.54	-636.61
STOCK OPTIONS	53120	1507.22	53731	1521.64	73362	2001.82	-14.42

FII sold 11,882 contracts worth Rs. 349.83 Cr. and OI increased by 8,250 contracts signalling that FII created fresh shorts in Nifty & Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As expected profit booking seen in Index and main indices continuously on 3^rd day. Now investors will keep close eye on Inflation figure on 14^th and then RBI Monetary policy review on 18^th. Investor will also look for more steps to boost the economy.

So for short term view Nifty seems in the range of 5785 – 6000. For FNO watch 5835 as SL and for Equities watch 5785 as SL because for mid-term trend is still buy on dips.

The pattern Nifty is forming is in favour of bulls and can surprise (6000 or 6040) if it hold 5835 till RBI policy, so it it need sentimental support in terms of policy reform, inflation figure, RBI outcome.

Resistance comes to 5892 - 5932 – 5958 - 6009 and Supports comes to 5835 – 5800 - 5785.

Opening seems subdued ahead of inflation figure announcement.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Banks –

Credit ratings agency Moody's lowered the rating outlook of Punjab National Bank , Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank from stable to negative on account of rising bad loans.

Realty, Infra & Power –

Now Infra to boost as much awaited The Cabinet Committee on Investment, (formerly called National Investment Board) has has been cleared by the Cabinet today.

Coal & Minings –

NMDC -

Floor Price of Rs147 per equity share for the Sale in terms of the OFS Circular. If it comes around 150 level then it will remain under performer for mid term.

Coal India Limited -

From the energy security point of view Government has encouraged acquisition of coal assets abroad. Accordingly, Coal India Limited (CIL) has taken initiatives to acquire coal assets abroad through its Coal Videsh Division.

Auto Sector –

Tata Motors -

TM rocked today on Jaguar No.s

The Board of Directors of Tata Motors today announced the appointment of  Cyrus P. Mistry as the Chairman of the Board with effect from December 28, 2012, on the retirement of  Ratan N. Tata. 

As had suggested in the beginning of this week for 289 and TM reached to suggested level of 287-289.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107 (plz book profit above 140)

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 on closing basis. (Not performing as per expectation and now need to exit today)

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

Tata Steel – @402 SL 394 TG 415+ - (SL hit, booked loss of 6Rs)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

============ TODAY’S PICK ============

(Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –

For more update – stay on blog during market hours.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t fall under excitement, read market outlook and Nifty outlook carefully – and act as per suggestion, you can make huge profit in 3 days.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.