Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Morning Bells (20 Dec 12)


Good Morning Friends.



God is not the sole author of our destiny, we are co-author of our destiny. If we do our best  he will do the rest else he will take rest.



Market extended its gain today and ended 32 points up. Market participants remained in good cheer as the Banking Amendment Bill got approval in the Lok Sabha. The rally was led by the Auto, Healthcare, Metals, IT and the Oil & Gas stocks. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap indices witnessed buying momentum.



RIL, Infosys, Wipro, TCS,  Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddys Lab, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, BHEL, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers while HDFC, ICICI Bank, L&T, ITC, NTPC, SBI, HUL Dr Reddy’s Lab were the loser in Sensex and Nifty.



Well, today is the day for Narendra Modi. When market will open, few results will be on table and may be there could be guess for next ruling party in Gujrat.



Another fact come to notice is – Gujrat based companies gave more than handsome return in Narendra Modi (Popularly knows NaMo) rule from 2002 to 2012. Modi has become the favourite poster boy for India Inc because of his industry-friendly policies and no nonsense attitude while doing business. Corporate predict if a Modi-led BJP comes into power in 2014 then it would be trigger for next bull run. An average select Gujrat based companies have given return approx 1500+%.



Well seems market will remain balanced and buoyant till Govt. announced policies does not turned into reality. (yes within its time limit), specially Media sector and Non Banking Finance Companies seems good bet till budget.



So if reform shows sign of ground reality then lot of large foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will increase their India weights.



So today I don’t have much to say, but yes I am expecting some kind of correction in Nifty which will give strength and will form a base for Jan series either to reach higher levels or to make new high.



MARKET OUTLOOK

Market cheered banking amendment bill and stock almost rally which are top contender for new banking license while banks seen some profit booking. US fiscal cliff matter is still uncertain and no visible sign for a settlement between Democratic & Republican seen till date.



The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.20% and ended at 14.47 against 14.44 and FNO PCR is 0.91.



The rupee gained y’day and ended at 54.55/56, weaker than its previous close of 54.85/86.



S&P 500 (US) ended lower at 1440 up 10.29 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19 Dec 2012


BUY
SELL
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
Difference

No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores
No. of contracts
Amt in Crores

INDEX FUTURES
24284
724.71
29872
891.18
439343
12914.90
-166.47
INDEX OPTIONS
417818
12355.27
402487
11910.22
1603840
47616.73
445.05
STOCK FUTURES
104808
3153.68
103528
3105.91
1222251
35921.53
47.77
STOCK OPTIONS
51925
1508.81
53655
1548.18
79277
2245.09
-39.37

FII sold 5588 contracts worth Rs. 166.47 Cr. and OI decreased by 5562 contracts.



NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty still seems tired or can say taking some rest (forming base) before new bull run. Trend is still buy on dips till 5785 is safe. For short term I still see upside is capped and Nifty is in range of 5785-5990-6040. Fire work or new upmove we will see in New series.



Nothing much to say here, market may show some weakness I coming session ahead of expiry.



Resistance comes to 5942 - 5955 – 5971 and Supports comes to 5913 – 5898 – 5885 - 5835.



Opening seems flat.



STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)



Banks

On approval of banking amendment bill now rate sensitive stocks will show good move in near terms i.e. till next RBI policy outcome which is scheduled on 29 Jan. 12.



Keep eye on – Axis Bank, SBI, Yes Bank, ICICI & HDFC seems good bet.



Realty, Infra & Power

Infra – Will show some strength as after parliament session Govt. may go for some concrete announcement. Keep eye on Rel Infra and IDFC.



Realty – Will show some strength on hope of rate cut.



DLF – DLF arm has signed agreement with Aman Resorts Group



IBR – India Bulls Real Estate closes its buyback offer, Rs. 75/- per share payable in cash for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs. 450.00 crores. The Buyback Offer had opened on April 30, 2012 and closed on December 14, 2012.



Metals

Metals shine y’day and gave strength to market. Out suggested stocks moved up.



Metal will shine in near term, recommended metal stocks to watch closely are Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries  and Steel Authority of India  (SAIL).

       

Auto

Tata Motors –

In the last five months, Tata Sons, Tata Industries and Tata Investment Corporation between them have sold around 75 lakh shares of Tata Motors. UBS has a sell rating on Tata Motors with a price target of Rs 250. So what is driving the current upswing in Tata Motors shares? Brokers say heavy buying by momentum players like hedge funds has been a key factor in the steep rise in share price.



============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.



Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107



DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)



============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)



Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+



Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+



Today’s MG Mantra

Trend will clear after first half hour trade. So just wait for clear indication and then decide your trade.



Have a Profitable day – MG



Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

11 comments:

  1. Top News -

    Gujrat & Himachal Results today

    GAIL eyes ADB stake in Petronet LNG

    Adani Enterprises OFS tomorrow. Promoters to sell 2.3 Cr shrs (2.1 % equity). To set floor price today

    Rel Power OFS closed yesterday. Promoters sell 5.42% stake in co via OFS. Receives bids worth Rs.2300 cr (1.6x). Indicative Price at Rs 95.53/share. CMP 98

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello sir, i was holding allahabad bank @165 from last 6 months today i made exit @168.
    Should i cover it n keep my delivery or shd i let it go

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shift to some other banks after expiry, u may get good return in Jan series. Or if you are a cash trader then focus to top contenders for new banking license

      Delete
  3. Hello sir ,
    BJP in Gujrat & Cong in HP.

    Bought RIL & CIPLA .

    Looks like mkts did not liked guj results...

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its not about Guj result, as I had already expressed - Modi will repeat. Actually its bad in view of congress and that it will create some hassles for congress in near term and that's mkt is just a bit cautious. As correction was already due, Once mkt will settle, mkt will be ready for New Year Bash.

      Delete
  4. Hi MG,

    I bought Auropharma today at 194, its looks strong . shall I book profit now at 197-198 ?? Or it can go up ? ppl are saying above 202 it can touch 220

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its long time I haven't look Auro, will look, meantime keep tight SL. Or if Don can help you.

      Delete
    2. Hi Anil ,
      hold auro , good you catched it today at right timing .
      As mkts are seeing some pressure FMCG & Pharma will be conc by traders .
      That is why I also bought cipla today .
      Thank you.

      Delete
  5. anyone applied to EROS ofc? company is offering shares at 200 rs where CMP is 208

    ReplyDelete