Morning Bells (1 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A Candle never loses any part of its Light while lighting up another Candle. So, never stop supporting others, because it always makes your life more meaningful.

Once again a tricky expiry where premium of most of good stock’s Calls and Puts went down to zero. Well this was the only reason we prefer to sit on cash.

Well now new series and we hope this series will also give us good profit like Jan series. I would like to congratulate to blog followers who are silently following our blog. I also like to highlight here, people who followed our calls on blog would have made profit as per our PL sheet (in the end of this MBells) which comes to around 25K on investment of 1Lac only.

A narrow trading range on F&O expiry is not what the market had anticipated. The Indian equity markets ended with modest losses on Thursday amid a lackluster trading session.  However Jan series expired by 2.1% gain which is good start of 2013. The rally could be attributed to the huge infusion of FII money into the Indian markets. In the month of January the FII’s have infused nearly 200bn. However on the other hand, the Domestic institutional investors have sucked out nearly 39bn during the month.

In addition, various government reforms and the RBI decision of cutting key interest rates for the first time in nine months also lifted the spirits

Gainers – Infosys, Wipro, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, HUL, Jindal Steel, HDFC Bank, ITC, SBI, ICICI Bank and Dr Reddys Labwere among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - TCS, Coal India, ONGC, Sun Pharma, Gail India, BHEL, NTPC, SBI, Hindalco Inds, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – Banking, Oil & Gas, IT and the telecom sectors were among the top losers while Realty, PSU, Consumer Durables and the FMCG sectors were among the top gainers.

On Domestic Front -

Indian consumers are more worried than they were a year back, according to brokerage firm Credit Suisse's consumer survey, which shows a continuing decline in consumer optimism. Reasons: high inflation and a slowing economy.

On Global front –

Most Asian markets suffered losses on Thursday, as investors reacted to a weak set of earnings reports and downbeat economic data from the U.S.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Now focus is shifted to budget which is probably schedule from 21 Feb 13. More clear view in coming days.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1.74% and ended at 14.17 against previous close of 14.38.

FNO PCR is 0.94 against previous close 0.91.

Indian Rupee against USD appreciated 0.08 paisa and was trading at 53.22 against its previous close 53.30.

S&P 500 (US) was trading down at 1497.65 down 4.31 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now immediate Nifty range is 5900 – 6200 but on downside could be more on profit booking at higher levels as its till date is liquidity driven rally.

Nifty is in range of 5900-5960-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 6053 – 6072 – 6086 and Support – 6020 – 6008 - 5987

Opening - seems flat and then one can expect a bit choppy movements.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

New Banking Licence Guidelines -

Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has reportedly said that he does not see any reason why companies that fulfil all RBI criteria should be denied banking licenses.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to issue final rules on new banking licenses to private entities within a few weeks.

"The RBI has drawn up draft guidelines, guidelines say that more licenses will be given to the private sector, " Chidambaram reportedly said

Reports said that the government believes that the opening the sector will pave the way for the creation of some world-size banks.

PNB –

Y’day PNB thrills the market and protected market fall. India's second largest public sector lender Punjab National Bank  (PNB) reported a forecast beating nearly 14% year-on-year rise in its third quarter net profit at Rs 1,306 crore, aided by lower provisions against bad loans.

Net interest income or the difference between interest earned and paid out, rose by about 6% y-o-y to Rs 3,733 crore during the same period.

Analysts on an average were expecting net profit at Rs 1,102 crore and net interest income at Rs 3,749 crore for the quarter.

PNB rallies 10% at Rs919 after the Bank posted a net profit of Rs. 13056.20 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 for Q3.

ICICI Bank –

Shares of ICICI Bank fell over 2% at Rs1188 despite posting a 30% jump in net profit at Rs 22.50bn for the quarter ended December 2012. 

ICICI Bank Ltd has posted a net profit of Rs. 26446.10 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to Rs. 21742.20 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 164973.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 187153.90 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Axis Bank -

Axis Bank today announced the successful closure of India’s largest ever Equity QIP programme amounting to over Rs. 4,726 crore. This is a part of the total fund raise of Rs. 5,537 crore, which includes a Preferential offer to certain promoters of Axis Bank.

This QIP programme was hugely successful having received significant interest from institutional investors from across the globe.  The entire offering was placed with high quality investors that included large long only funds, pension funds, insurance companies and domestic mutual funds.

Union Bank –

Total Income has increased from Rs. 59894.80 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 69593.70 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Net interest income rose 2.6 percent to Rs 1,891.4 crore from Rs 1,843.6 crore during the same period.

Gross non performing asset (NPA) improved by 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.36 percent and net NPA fall by 36 basis points QoQ to 1.7 percent in the October-December quarter.

Jet Airways –

Jet Airways surged over 4% at Rs618 after reports stated that deal may be concluded between Jet and Abu Dhabi-based airline Etihad Airways.

DLF –

DLF gained 2% after company said it sold the 150MW wind turbine project in Gujarat to Bharat Light and Power for Rs 2.82bn as part of its strategy to exit from non-core businesses.

Satyam Computer –

Total Income has increased from Rs. 18693.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 20506.10 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Mahindra Holidays –

The 3rd quarter Operating Income grew by 13% over the same quarter last year to end at Rs 179 Cr.

Tata Global -

Total Income has increased from Rs. 18227.00 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 19327.90 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

ONGC –

State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp will raise $900 million through overseas bonds to fund an acquisition in Azerbaijan, Chairman Sudhir Vasudeva told reporters on Thursday.

ONGC Videsh, a unit of India's largest energy explorer was planning to raise up to USD 900 million to fund the buy, a company executive said in November. Two sources said separately the company had hired banks for the fund raising.

Oil India -

The government will offload its 10 percent equity in Oil India (OIL) on Friday which may fetch the exchequer up to Rs 3,000 crore. The decision was taken at a meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers, headed by Finance Minister P Chidambaram, y’day.

"Proposal has been cleared. Disinvestment will take place on February 1 through OFS route. Roughly we will raise Rs 2,500-3,000 crore," Petroleum Secretary G C Chaturvedi said.

According to sources, shares will be offered at a discounted price. "Price has been determined. It has been communicated to stock exchanges," Petroleum Minister Veerappa Moily told reporters after the EGoM meeting. The Government has proposed to sell 10 per cent stake or 6.01 crore shares in the petroleum exploring company OIL through offer for sale (OFS) route.

MSX-SX (with Financial Technology) –

MCX-SX, India's new stock exchange, will begin trading of cash equities and equities derivatives on February 11, according to a statement on Monday.

MCX-SX has been gearing up to launch equities trading since last year, and will compete against more established rivals Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).

Stocks that can show good strength in coming days –

GMR –

Availability of coal and gas to fire extant and upcoming power projects, (2) monetization of Mumbai airport’s real estate and (3) sale of some of its assets can help to meaningfully reduce leverage (Rs 15300 crore debt against Rs 13300 crore of equity in 1HFY13).

GVK Power & Infrastructure –

Increased availability of gas could help to improve plant load factors (PLFs), revenues and profits of its power segment, (2) monetization of real estate at the Delhi airport and (3) entry of investment partners (or buyers) of some of the operating road projects can help GVK to reduce its consolidated debt burden of Rs 15500 crore (1HFY13) and increase its equity valuation

Adani Power –

A small increase in A tariff hike of Rs 0.50/kWh to offset costs in the Mundra power plant could add Rs 37 to current estimated fair value of Rs 111. We do not think a review of the PPA may be feasible. Nonetheless, reduction in fuel costs by around 20% through higher blending of low-cost coal could accrue Rs 26 to our fair valuation.average tariffs (Rs 0.25/kWh) across its projects can add 140% to our current estimated fair value of Rs 33. (2) pooling of coal prices can reduce costs by Rs 400 crore (and increase our estimated fair value to Rs 53) and (3) ramp up of Bunyu coal mine production to 10 mtpa can double the fair value estimate of APL.

Lanco Infratech –

A sustainable merchant tariff of Rs 4.0/kWh could add Rs 6 to our fair value estimate of Rs 12. In addition, allowing cost-plus tariff at Amarkantak could add Rs 3 to fair value estimates; utilization of 90% at Kondapalli could add Rs 2 to our fair value estimate.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

=============== HOT SHOT ===============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Be on board for next clue.

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Jan Series Total Profit = +25,650 (Cash +9,650.00 & FNO = +16,250)

Billionaire Club Jan Series TOTAL Profit = +51,000

Today’s MG Mantra –

New series, new fun, new ideas, stay on blog for more clues.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.