Tuesday, 12 February 2013

Morning Bells (13 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Keep yourself busy with something or the other… because a busy person never has time to be unhappy…. Be happy always.

After being under pressure for nearly two weeks, the Indian equity market has finally ended with modest gains. The upswing was seen despite disappointing industrial production (IIP) and Consumer price (CPI) data which was announced today.
The IIP for the month of December 2012 came in at 179.3, which is -0.6% as compared to the level in the month of December 2011. The cumulative growth for the period April-December 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 0.7%.

While, the CPI data continued to rise for fourth straight month. The index remained in double digit rising up to 10.79% for the month of January as compared to 10.56% in the month of December.

IIP - The General Index for the month of December 2012 stands at 179.3, which is 0.6% lower as compared to the level in the month of December 2011. The cumulative growth for the period April-December 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 0.7%.
Gainers – RIL, Wipro, SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, ONGC, Dr Reddys Lab, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - TCS, Infosys, Tata Power, Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, HUL, Jindal Steel, Cipla were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – BSE Oil & Gas index was the top gainer, up 1.52% followed by BSE Healthcare index up 1.19%, BSE PSU index rose by 1.15% and BSE Auto index added 1%. However, the BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap indices underperformed the benchmark indices as they declined by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Among the other major losers were BSE Realty index down 4%, BSE IT index down 0.63% and BSE Metal index down 0.35%.

On Domestic Front –
The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) on the 2G scam is all set to wind up its probe. Addressing the media on Tuesday, committee chairman PC Chacko said that the JPC will submit its report by the end of the Budget session.

On Global front –
At the ongoing Edelweiss conference, investors feel the worst for the economy my be over. The foreign institution investors are more optimistic of India and Indian economy than their doemstic counterparts, according to Rashesh Shah of Edelweiss Financial Services .

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Though the market has been continuously losing strength, but still some analysts feel that there is something more to cheer up investors.  Experts feels that the downside of the market is about 100-200 points whereas the upside could be to the tune of 500-600 points atleast.

Well, as told y’day Nifty taken support around 5900 mark and today registered modest gains. Still Nifty is in the middle of range i.e. Nifty will find support around 5880 and will face resistance around 5950 and Nifty is just closed @5922, so still there’s no clarity but yes I can say market can move further as it has defended not technical but physiological mark 5900.

Once again if there’s dip till 5840 mark then for cash segment this downside can be used to buy, people who have missed the rally in 2012 can join the party mean one can watch 2 levels, 5840 & 5780-5800-5820, these tri levels can be watched carefully and one can initiate fresh longs in this range, as all seems good support and hopefully market can bottom out from here. They can keep SL 5870 itself.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.1% and ended at 15.31 against previous close of 15.65.
FNO PCR is 0.83 against previous close 0.90.

Indian Rupee against USD closed unchanged and was trading at 53.85.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1520.72 up 3.71 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
The near term support for the index is seen at the 5820 mark, which is also the 100 DMA. On the upside the 50 DMA could emerge as strong resistance zone near 5960 levels.

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 5979 – 5953 – 5937 and Support – 5896 – 5871 - 5855

Opening - seems flat i.e. 8-10 points up and then let mkt to decide in which direction it want to go.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Total Income has increased from Rs. 482036.50 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 536185.20 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

OIL India -
Total Income has increased from Rs. 28255.40 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 29024.70 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Indian Hotels -
Total Income has increased from Rs. 5310.50 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 5506.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Shares of Jindal Steel and Power  declined over 3% to RS 393 after the company announced weak set of numbers.

For the December quarter, JSPL's profit declined 14%  year-on-year to Rs 870 crore on higher interest cost and lower sales in power segment. Sales of the company, however, was up 10% to Rs 4802 crore,YoY.

During the quarter, the operating profit margin decreased 299 bps to 29.38%,YoY.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 44002.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 48128.40 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Total Income has decreased from Rs. 6803.80 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 6475.80 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

United Spirit -
SEBI has given more time to Diageo Plc for launching the open offer to acquire United Spirits shares, according to reports.
Diageo will have to pay an interest of 10% per annum for the period of delay to the public shareholders tendering their shares in the open offer,  SEBI reported.

Unitech –
Shares of Unitech slipped 17% after reports stated that Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) registered Preliminary Enquiry to verify allegations that a public prosecutor in the 2G case was in touch with Unitech managing director Sanjay Chandra.
The stock is currently trading at Rs29, down Rs5.85.
The stock has hit a high of Rs35 and a low of Rs 28.

Hero Moto -
Seeking an early solution to its wage settlement talks with the management, workers of Hero MotoCorp 's Gurgaon plant today said they are keeping options open to go on strike but only as a last resort.

The workers, who held a protest rally in front of the company's factory gate here today, said they would continue to work normally without affecting production but the management "must not test their patience".
The rally was supported by unions from other companies, including Maruti Suzuki India's Gurgaon plant, Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India, Satyam Auto and Rico Auto.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

LIC Housing 280CE – @4 (2 lot) TG 7+ Updated SL 4.4 (Active from 12 Feb 13)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +1500
(Axis bank 1500CE = +1500)

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +13000 + 2500
(HDFC bank 660CE bought 7.5 Exit 10 = +2500)

Today’s MG Mantra
For longs 5880 is SL while for short 5950 is SL. Woohah…

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.


  1. Key Results Today - Coal India, BPCL, IOC, JSW Steel, MMTC, NMDC, Tata Steel, Unitech, Natco Pharma.

    Tata Motors: January JLR Sales:
    JLR Sales Up 32% At 34,877 Units (YoY)
    Land Rover Sales Up 31% At 29,118 Units (YoY)
    Jaguar Sales Up 40% At 5,759 Units (YoY)

  2. Hello sir ,
    Mkt up strongly , but no specific sector or stock helping it .
    It is short covering and fresh shorts being added .

    Holding tatasteel with Puts as hedge & looking to go long in Infy .

    Will buy some LIC calls , so can it be bought in bulk ?

    Thank you

  3. Updated SL hit in LIC call. Be happy with small profit of 800.

    We have calls but not taking because Tata Steel result are expected NOT GOOD, so if TS falls further, mkt may close below 5950 mark, which is strong resitance itself. So just watching else we have calls on Bata, Idea & Sun

  4. Sir,
    Please can you suggest some good good brokerage firm.
    Actually I am using India Infoline and it is on the expensive side( In terms of brokerage and subsciption charges).
    Thank You

    1. Hi for bulk trade Zerodha is there, its charges on trade basis rather than volume basis. Else you can go with Ventura for low volume, and if you want software skills and other useful informations then Sharekhan is there. All three are best as per requirement while all other banking broker or like what you have suggested are not for traders, they are basically for investors or say short to long term investors.