Morning Bells (8 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

From Swami Vivekanad – Jeevan me zyada rishtey hona zaruri nahi he, par jo rishtey hain uname jeevan hona zaruri he.

The Indian equity market ended with gains for third straight trading session on Thursday led by Capital Goods, Telecom, FMCG and the Banking stocks. The realty stocks further surged higher on expectations that the RBI will cut interest rates in its monetary policy review meeting this month. The IT stocks also extended gains led by Infosys, Wipro, TCS & HCL Tech which hit 52 week highs today.

The S&P BSE Small-Cap index and BSE Mid - Cap index also gained by 0.8% and 0.5% each. Among the top losers were Consumer Durables, Metals and select PSU stocks.

In addition, lifting the sentiment also was positive cues from the European markets as they gained ahead of monetary-policy meetings in the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tata Power, Hero MotoCorp, L&T, BHEL, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto, SBI, ICICI Bank, NTPC, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Coal India, Cipla, Tata Motors, Hindalco Inds, Gail India, Jindal Steel were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On Domestic Front –

1.

On Global front –

1.

European Central Bank(ECB) in its policy meet on Thursday kept the interest rates unchanged into an eight month. ECB has kept key rate untouched at 0.75% since July when Europe was reeling under the economic debt crisis. The rates have been kept unchanged despite falling inflation, a flat-to-negative growth and amidst uncertainty on the Eurozone. 

2.

Former Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi has reportedly been sentenced to one year in jail by an Italian court. He was reportedly sentenced for divulging the contents of a telephone call in a 2005 banking scandal case. 

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Nothing much to say here, market seems range bound with a bit volatility, now all eyes will be on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy which will be the next domestic trigger, there one can expect 25 bps cut based on the Budget.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.5% and ended at 13.02 against previous close of 13.40.

FNO PCR is 1 against previous close 0.92.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 16 paisa and was trading at 54.46 against its previous close of 54.72.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1544.44 up 2.98 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now we are in New series so not much to say here, will just follow the trend. Short term range 5550 – 5650 - 5835 – 5940. Here 5835-40 is the level where Nifty face strong resistance, so this level should be watch closely as short covering can take place here if Nifty try to break this level decisively while 5650-55 can give small support to Nifty, if broken then next support comes around 5565.

Intraday Resistance – 5970 – 5924 – 5893 and Support – 5817 – 5770 – 5740

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6047 – 5963 – 5841 and Supports – 5634 – 5550 - 5428

Opening – Nifty closed just below 5870 a next small hurdle, so opening seems flat and market may remain range bound. Some selling pressure can be seen in second half and weekly traders need to close their positions.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RBI releases New Banking Guideline –

The Reserve Bank of India has been receiving queries from intending applicants seeking clarifications on the guidelines on Licensing of New Banks in the Private Sector. The guidelines were issued on February 22, 2013.
Considering that the clarifications sought would be of wider interest and use for all intending applicants, the Reserve Bank has decided to post the clarifications on its website. The identity of those who raise queries would be kept confidential, the central bank said on Thursday.
The queries may be sent by April 10, 2013 to Chief General Manager-in-Charge, Department of Banking Operations and Development, Reserve Bank of India, Central Office, 12th Floor, Central Office Building, Fort, Mumbai–400 001 through mail or email.

Indian Media & Entertainment to touch Rs917bn: FICCI – KPMG

The Indian M&E industry grew from Rs728 bn in 2011 to Rs 820 bn in 2012, registering an overall growth of 12.6 percent. While, 2012 was a challenging year for the industry, with some improvement likely in the global economy in 2013 and India’s real GDP expected to be in the region of 6.1% to 6.7%,  the prognosis for the Industry looks much better going forward.

DLF –

DLF surged by 3.4% after the board of directors of the company approved sale of equity shares via institutional placement programme(IPP) to achieve the minimum shareholding pattern stipulated by SEBI. Board shall consider convening a general meeting of shareholders on Apr 04, 2013, to seek their approval for the same.

Coal India -

Coal India slipped by 1.3% after reports stated that Coal India’s February production was 42.6mn tones as compared to a target of 44.37mt. 96% of the target production has been achieved for February, 2013 period. April-Feb production turned out to be 398mt v/s 413.7mt target.  96% of target production achieved for April-Feb period.

Earlier, reports said that Coal India(CIL) might import 20mt to meet the supply in line with orders to increase supply to power firms and avoiding penalties. Owing to a potential increase in number of power stations next year, the world’s largest coal producer is likely to revive import plans.

The coal producer is supposed to deliver 80% of committed supplies according to the new fuel supplies agreement in order to avoid penalties. To compensate the shortfall in supplies, the company is supposed to take the import route.  

MCX -

NYSE Euronext has called off selling stake in MCX, according to reports.

Earlier reports stated that NYSE Euronext was planning to sell 4.79% stake in MCX, the country's largest commodity exchange, according to reports.

Reports stated that the sale, likely to take place on Thursday, will be at a 3-5% discount.

The size of the deal would be approximately Rs 2.50bn, says report.

BhartiAirtel –

Bharti Airtel mulls selling 25% stake in the Direct to home(DTH) business of the company, said the reports. The company expects a valuation of $800mn for same. Bharti has reportedly signed non-disclosure agreements(NDA) with private equity players for the stake sale. 

Comcast and Liberty Global, US based DTH companies are reportedly in talks with Bharti Airtel and are interested in buying the stake. Bharti plans to raise around $200mn via the stake sale.

Bharti Airtel's DTH has reportedly a customer base of 7.9mn customers. Its rival Dish Tv has a customer base of around 15mn.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Hexaware – Place order for March 80PE below 1.5 (max 4 lots) first buy 2 lots and then buy another 2 lots at 20-30 paisa below. SL 0.5 TG 2.5+ (Remember its Positional, Active from 26 Feb 13, not executed yet)

Note – Hexa to move higher, say around 95+ levels, so we are not taking this call right now, will shift to 90PE once stock will touch 95+ level.

HDFC Bank 640CE – bought @11.5 (1 Lot) SL 7TG 15+ (Active from 7 Mar 13)

Booked profit @15, Total Gain 2250

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +7,750 + 2250 (HDFC bank) = +10,000

(Profit in HDFC Bank)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +16,550 + 2150 = +18,700 (HDFC Gain)

(Profit in HDFC 640CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Watch 5870 level closely, close above this level will lead Nifty to 5940.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.