Thursday, 11 April 2013

Morning Bells (12 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Lord BUDDHA was a price who left his palace in search of PEACE and we all BUDDHUS, are searching for a palace at cost of our peace.

Today is day of Infy, early morning Infy will post its result and it will shake the market. Everywhere talking point is Infy only.

ndian markets ended positive on Thursday extending its winning streak to the second trading session. After opening with a positive gap in early trades, the markets turned volatile and slipped into the red erasing all its gains. However, short covering in the banking, realty and IT stocks helped the benchmark indices bounce back. The Nifty gyrated almost 70 points intra-day.

Infy –
IT bellwether Infosys continued its upswing, the stock has now surged nearly by Rs160 in past two trading session in build up to the quarterly earnings to be announced on 12 April, 2013. (Also see: Infy Q4 preview) The Sensex closed at 18542, up 127 points, while the Nifty ended at 5,594, up 35 points over its previous close. The BSE Small-Cap index and BSE Mid-Cap index ended flat.

Infosys will kickstart the earnings season with its fourth quarter results on Friday. India's second largest software services provider cheered the street in Oct-Dec after several dismal quarters.

The company is expected to meet forecast in Jan-Mar, or maybe just miss it due to British Pound depreciation to the US Dollar. But the big question is will it guide or not guide for FY14?

Analysts on average expect Infosys to report a net profit of Rs 2,297 crore, down 3 percent sequentially, while Rupee revenue is seen up 3 percent at Rs 10,730 crore, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. In US Dollar terms, revenue is expected to rise 4 percent at USD 1,987 million in Q4.

LIC sells Infy shares –
State-run insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has pared its stake in Infosys to 5.96 per cent, reducing its holding in the IT major in the last quarter with an estimated sale of shares worth over Rs 2,000 crore.

LIC, the biggest institutional investor in the stock market, held 7.24-percent stake in Infosys during the October-December quarter, which has fallen to 5.96 percent as of March 31.

 Gainers –
Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Coal India, Tata Motors, SBI, ICICI Bank, BHEL, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, Maruti, ITC and Sterlite Industries were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –
RIL, Bharti Airtel, HDFC, Gail India, Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, M&M and NTPC were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
As told many times, 5600-5630 range seen decline, second time Nifty back from it. So lets see whether Infy push Nifty above it or again turn to 5500-5550.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3% and ended at 16.97 against previous close of 16.49.
(Not – my personal view is that Vix can move up max 17 to 17.5 which itself meant a small recovery can be there)

FNO PCR is 0.90 against previous close 0.90.
(PCR is also suggesting its in middle)

Indian Rupee – Rupee ended flat and was trading at 54.51 against its previous close of 54.51.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1587.73 up 19.12 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
Technically if you see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support seems around 5200-5250.

Once again emphasizing here – its corporate earning month and would remain highly volatile, some mild bounces could be there which can be used to book profits on longs and then to create shorts.

Intraday Resistance – 5689 – 5650 – 5622 and Support – 5554 – 5514 – 5486 (Pivot 5582)

Opening – All depend on Infy.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –
Tata Motors surged 4% after Jaguar Land Rover reported a 16% jump in global sales for March on strong demand from China.

Sterlite -
Sterlite Technologies ended up 6% after it received new orders worth Rs 6.3 billion in Q4 FY13.

The Kingfisher Airline stock took off 4.64% after the company sought DGCA’s nod for restarting operations in the beleaguered airline. It submitted plans to the regulatory body for infusion of funds and revival of its flights.

Reliance Industries has shut its ninth well on the main gas fields in the eastern offshore KG-D6 block, leading to output plummeting to all-time low of 15.5 million standard cubic metres per day.

RIL on April 2 shut the well A1 on the main producing fields of Dhirubhai-1 and 3 (D1&D3) in Krishna Godavari basin block KG-DWN-98/3 or KG-D6 for "reservoir build-up study," according to a status report of the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH).

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)
(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +5,300

Today’s MG Mantra
Don’t follow first our trend, actual trend will be only after that.

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Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.


  1. could i track FII activities? Is there any source from where I could see the live data?

    1. NSE releases data end of day. check our link section and also @google.

  2. thanks. Any chance of recovery today. I am long at 5600. Shall I consider 5514 as exit level and book loss if it breaks?

    1. Why some of you make mistake repeatedly, since past 5 days I am saying either wait and watch or whenever Nifty reaches 5600-5630 its a short. with SL 5655 on closing.

    2. Well, the fall is mainly due to Infy so there are chances for recovery. If doesn't go below 5500.

  3. Buy ITC 300CE below 2.7 TG 5+ SL 1.85 (Qty Max 2 lots)

  4. Hello Sir,

    Stuck with infy 2400 CE @ 89. Shall I exit on monday with loss? Is it possible for infy to recover some ground before expiry?

    Please advice. Thanks. Badal