Good Morning
Friends.
Two places
are most valuable in the world – The nicest place is to be in someone’s
THOUGHTS, and safest place is to be in someone’s PRAYER.
Today was the day for RIL AGM but it failed to lift
the market, participant were also awaiting ECB and now will hold breaths for US
job data today.
The market ended off the day’s high on Thursday
with the Nifty striking resistance at the 5940 mark. The opening gap down was
foreseen on account of overnight losses in the US and weakness in Asian
markets. Early selling pressure saw the Nifty hit an intra-day low of 5,869.
But strong buying at lower levels led to a 90 point bounce back on the Nifty
and 200 point Sensex rally. The recovery was led by banking, realty and capital
goods stocks.
However, 5,940 turned out to be vital resistance
for the Nifty with huge short positions being built up.
In today's major corporate action, Reliance
Industries at its 39th annual general meeting announced plans to invest Rs. 1.5 lakh crore over the next three years. The retail
arm is looking at 50% profit growth and aims to do revenues of Rs. 40,000-50,000 crore. The stock ended down 1.25% at Rs. 792 per share.
Gainers –
Reliance Infrastructure, HCL Technologies, Axis
Bank, Ambuja Cement, Bank of Baroda, UltraTech, ICICI Bank, DLF, Maruti and
Punjab National Bank were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.
Losers -
Bharti Airtel, Wipro,
Lupin, Infosys, L&T, M&M, Sun Pharmaceutical, NTPC, Dr Reddy’s
Laboratories, Ranbaxy, BHEL and GAIL were among the major losers in Sensex
& Nifty.
Sectoral –
Healthcare, oil and
gas, power, metals and telecom stocks were some of the major laggards.
Domestic
Front –
Cabinet clarifies retail FDI norms; bans franchisee route –
In response to the DIPP's plea for clarity on FDI policy in
multi-brand retail (MBR), the Cabinet issued clarifications which allow only
30-percent sourcing for front-end stores and forbid the MBR entity from
conducting any other form of distribution.
The sourcing conditions are only for manufactured store-products
and does not apply to the procurement of fresh produce. MBR entities are to
make fresh investment for back-end infrastructure and can only invest in greenfield
assets.
The government also clarifies that no acquisitions were permitted
for back-end assets and the FDI-in-MBR entity cannot take undertake
wholesale activity.
Chidambaram urges banks to cut rate, discourage gold buying -
Finance Minister P Chidambaram urged banks to pass on the benefits
of policy rate cuts to their borrowers. At the same time, he stressed on
scarping the fetish for gold investment. Higher imports of gold is fuelling the
widening current account deficit.
"Since 2012 the Reserve Bank of India cut repo rate by 125
basis points. However, commercial banks have reduced their rates only by 30
bps. Moreover, banks have a role to play in dampening the enthusiasm for gold. Gold
is like another metal, which shines a little more than copper or glass,"
he said while addressing a conference held by India Banks' Association in
Mumbai.
Global
Front –
ECB holds rates, expecting recovery soon-
The European Central Bank kept its main interest
rate on hold at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday as it waits to see whether
early signs of stabilisation in the euro zone will blossom into an economic
recovery.
Economic data improved in May and
ECB President Mario Draghi said this week he still sees "a very gradual
recovery" starting later this year, taking pressure off the ECB to act
again, as it had promised to do if necessary after cutting rates in May.
(All news - MoneyControl.com)
===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================
Now next big triggers CPI,
WPI Inflation on 12 and IIP on 14 or 15 and then RBI monetary policy review on
17th.
Today US unemployment and jobless claims data to take centrestage.
The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 0.57% and ended
at 17.35 against previous close of 16.78.
FNO PCR was 0.93 against previous close 0.88.
Indian Rupee – Rupee declined further by 12 paisa and was trading at 56.84
against its previous close of 56.72.
S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1612.54 up 3.64 then its
previous close at the time of writing M Bells.
======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK
========================
Though Nifty manages
to close in green but market is not yet out of danger. So just avoid taking
long positions till the Nifty closes above 5,940 on a weekly basis. This is a
critical level as it is from here that it broke out in late April. If the Nifty
closes below 5,940 on a weekly basis, it is likely to find support at its 200
daily moving average. The 200-DMA is an indicator used by traders to determine
the market trend. In theory, stocks/indices continuing to close above the
200-day line is considered healthy.
200 DMA comes around
5785.
If weakness continue
then rate sensitive stocks will lead, specially banks will be on sellers radar.
Opening – Again seems down
and under pressure ahead of weekly closing as well as later today US jobless
data is there.
======================== STOCK OUTLOOK
======================
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
TM
TM again hovering in the range of
306-312 which is no trade zone, however its showing good strength and if market
closes above 5940 then it will try to hit previous highs.
L&T –
Larsen & Toubro closed marginally up after its Saudi Arabian
arm secured a large engineering contract from the Saudi Arabian Oil Company
(Saudi Aramco) on Wednesday.
RCom -
Reliance Communications gained
1.4% on reports that South Africa’s MTN could buy a substantial equity stake in
the company. In a related development, reports suggest Reliance Jio and
Reliance Communications may ink a tower sharing deal on Friday
3rd Spectrum auction in Aug.13 –
Even as companies like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Reliance
Communication stayed away from spectrum auction held in March, the Department
of Telecom is gearing up for another round of spectrum auction in August.
Spectrum EGoM will be meeting by the end of this month to finalise the reserve
price for the third auction round, CNBC-TV18's Malvika Jain reports.
The auction will be for 800, 900 and 1800 Mhz spectrum. Sources
say the DoT will make it compulsory for all telecom players to participate in
the auction. They say no licence extension will be given unless
telcos bid for spectrum. That means, if telcos have to continue with their
business, they will have to bid for spectrum.
Telecom players like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Idea argue that since they were given spectrum
under an earlier regime, their licenses should be extended along with spectrum.
Their licenses are coming up for renewal in 2014 in some circles.
In March, none of the telcos participated in the
auction, especially for 900 Megahertz (Mhz) band spectrum, which is
considered to be more efficient spectrum band.
Banking sector - RBI May disappoint -
Reserve Bank of India today said food prices will
remain at a higher level despite average inflation in the country being
expected to moderate to around 5.5 per cent this fiscal. "We see food
prices continue to remain high, partly because income levels have gone up.
Increasing real informal wages has been a major drive of inflation," RBI
Executive Director Deepak Mohanty said here.
"We have higher inflation.
We are also a developing nation and so it's good to have some amount of
inflation," Mohanty said.
New Banking Licence -
The first committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does an
interim scrutiny by September-October.
On the new bank-licence clarifications announced by the RBI on
Monday and the stocks that might be impacted Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M)
& Tata Capital and L&T Finance .
On the PSU side - Power Finance Corporation (PFC) & Rural
Electrification Corporation (REC)
have a good chance of getting bank licences. However, since the
process is long-drawn it is not a very near-term trigger. But when the licences
are issued, it will be a big positive for those that do get the licences.
====================
OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t
shows strength.
Union
Bank – 230CE @4.75 TG 7+ SL 2 (Max 2 lots)
TS
310CE – @5.5 TG 10+ SL 288 in Cash (Max 1
lots)
===============
INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
============
PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw
our attention)
MG
Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)
June 2013 = 00
Billionaire
Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)
June 2013 = +13,900
(Booked profit in AT 90CE bought 3.25 sold
4.85 = 6400, Bata Future @867 sold 897 = 7500)
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Nifty find hard to close above
5940, as told today it need to close above 5940 to move further else weakness
may persist. On downside 5860 could act as support else 5785 200DMA is the
point where Nifty can stabilize.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and
are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.
============
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