Morning Bells (31 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life is full of problems… problems are not permanent but life is permanent, so face the problems with confidence.

Since very long time I am unable to understand RBI’s move to curb Rupee fall. Because my view is very clear instead of lots of efforts Rupee is depreciating and RBI wont be able to stop it unless there’s nothing on fundamental ground. Rupee is again returning to 60 level and what we lost is – to save Rupee we lost both, i.e. Govt. couldn’t saved Rupee and Indian market. Major reason is currency is not domestic in nature so will be in the range of 58-62 in near term.

RBI -

Well it was again a terrifying Tuesday and indices plunged sharply. The apex bank kept key lending rates steady, focusing on stabilising the rupee rather than boosting growth. With today's fall, the market has declined for the fifth consecutive trading session. The Nifty has closed below the psychological 5,800 mark for the first time since July 4.

In 2013 alone, the central bank had cut rates three times by a quarter of a percentage point each. However, it kept rates steady at its last meeting on June 17 citing concerns over the rupee's weakness against the dollar.

Market participants seem to have ignored the central bank’s statement on liquidity tightening. Assaying India Inc's concerns on tightening liquidity conditions, RBI said the recent liquidity tightening measures are aimed at checking undue volatility in the foreign exchange market and will be rolled back in a calibrated manner as stability is restored. It has not listed milestones or explained what will be its benchmarks for the roll back. This is sure to fuel uncertainty in the forex market.

Retail FID policy today –

Cabinet is likely to take up the multibrand retail foreign direct investment (FDI) policy on Thursday. Sources say that the Cabinet could relax some FDI norms for multibrand retail.

Gainers –

Losers -

Sectoral –

The decline in the stock market was led by oil and gas, realty, power, auto, banking, FMCG and metals stocks. Even midcap and smallcap stocks saw immense selling pressure. Only IT stocks ended with smart gains amid a weakening rupee.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Market turned downtrend after RBI disappointed, though it was inline buy cutting down further growth forecast by RBI played big and signalled that theirs is no relief in near term.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down by 0.77% and ended at 18.12 against previous close of 18.25.

FNO PCR was 0.98 against previous close 0.95.

Indian Rupee – Rupee again moved above 60 and declined by 1.05 paisa and was trading at 40.47 against its previous close of 59.42.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1688.52 up 3.19 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

31 July – BhartiAirtel, HCL, ICICI, KTK Bank, United Spirit

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Here series of next supports  5750 / 5660-80 / 5600 / 5545-65 / 5477. In this 5750, 5545-65 & 5477 are seems good support and Nifty can show some strength here.

Opening – Opening seems flat, as Nifty (S) closed near its strong support 5750.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

BhartiAirtel –

Country's largest telecom operator Bharti Airtel will declare its first quarter numbers on Wednesday. Analysts on an average expect the consolidated profit after tax to rise 27.8 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 650 crore. In fact, analysts expect the profit in the range of Rs 320 to Rs 970 crore for the quarter.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to July 13 (Total 59,600)

Aug 13 = +00

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,30,450)

Aug 13 = +00

Today’s MG Mantra –

For longs SL is 5880

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

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