Morning Bells (13 Sept 13)

Morning Bells (13 Aug 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Talents will take you to high position in your career but behaviour will help to maintain the high position in others mind.

Today’s big news is IIP & CPI which came unexpected.

Provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for August 2013 on point to point basis (August 2013 over August 2012) is 9.52% as compared to 9.64% (final) for the previous month of July 2013.

While India's industrial production jumped an unexpected 2.6 percent in July after contracting for two straight months, government data showed on Thursday, good news for Asia's third-largest economy as it tries to emerge from a deep slump. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected output to shrink an annual 0.8 percent in July after a 2.2 percent contraction in June. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 76 percent of industrial production, rose 3.0 percent from a year earlier, the statistics office said.

Well, after enjoying a fast and furious run, the Indian equity market have cooled off snapping a five-day winning streak. Participants preferred to book some profits ahead of the July Industrial Production and August CPI for Combined, Rural, and Urban which was scheduled to announce after market hours and experts’ poll had created some fear.

Diesel Price hike –

Oil secretary reportedly said that government will decide on increasing the retail prices of diesel and cooking gas (LPG) in a few weeks.

The government is considering a Rs3 to 5 hike in the price of diesel, which accounts for more than 40 percent of fuel use, says report.

While Petrol prices may be cut by as much as Rs 1-1.50 per litre next week on falling international oil rates and appreciating rupee but a one-time hike in diesel and possibly LPG rates is still on the cards.

DOMESTIC FRONT –

Finally government has approved a proposal to invest $ 4.3 bn in World Bank bonds.

This move which will help India to secure additional funding from the multilateral agency for infrastructure projects, according to reports.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would invest in the bonds floated by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

The bonds would be of various tenures and the RBI would get return on investment, says report.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market to go in consolidation phase here and that could be healthy for it. On upside, it was wonderful rally of 700+ points so upside seems 5950-6000, we also have big events next so better to sit on cash or just make intraday positions. If Fed announce tapering on its bond buying program then we may see sharp reaction and all global market will be part of it, even currency too.

I see some longs building up ahead of both events and then pressure build up around the event day.

EVENTS –

After CPI and IIP now August trade data and rail freight traffic data are among the other data to be announced next week.

Raghuram Rajan's maiden RBI monetary policy on September 20 will be closely watched by investors.

Fed policy meeting next week (17&18 Sept) is also another important event to be watched out for next week as the US Federal Reserve is set to make public its further plans on US$85bn monthly bond-buying programme.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Infy –

Infosys BPO today announced that it has been selected by AkzoNobel, a leading global paint and coatings company and a major producer of specialty chemicals, to transform their finance and accounting (F&A) processes to deliver higher operational efficiencies and performance.

JPA –

Aditya Birla Group firm UltraTech Cement today said it will acquire Gujarat cement unit of Jaypee Cement Corp for Rs 3,800 crore.

Talking about the company's debt, Executive Chairman of Jaypee group Manoj Gaur said monetization of Gujarat cement plant is the first step towards debt reduction, which will go down by 15 percent post the deal with Ultratech.

Jaiprakash Associates shares were among the major losers of the day, tumbling 11 percent. The company sold its cement unit in Gujarat to UltraTech for Rs 3800 crore, but analysts say the Jaypee Group as a whole needs to do much more to meaningfully reduce its debt burden.

Real Estate –

Factors like tighter monetary policies by RBI, depressed domestic economic conditions, exodus of private equity funds, outflow of money from the property market for impending elections are converging after a decade setting a stage for a deep correction in Indian real estate.

CALL LOG –

TM – Some ppl booked profit while some exited with minor loss. SL hit 335.

Though it got penalty for fall in Nifty, still I guess it can move up to 350+

HDFC – Today HDFC can show strength, one can initiate call if found it below 810 or then around previous close for TG 840/855+ in near term.

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