Morning Bells (21 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

God’s guidance is like a small lamp in a dark forest, it doesn’t show everything at once… but it gives enough light for next step to be safe.

I don’t how many of you have thought on above lines, its really relates to stock market. Tech indicators are like that only which gives a portion of light about further step we just need to see it before it turn into morning light.

Well, it was an incredible trading session on Friday and hit Sept high. After taking a breather in the past two trading sessions, the Nifty index hit 6200 mark for the first time since May 20, 2013 mainly led by the banking, metal, capital goods, realty, FMCG and the oil and gas stocks.

Sentiment got a boost as the rupee extended its gains to the highest in more than two months breaching the psychological 61 per dollar mark. The Indian unit rallied to a high of 60.92 against the US dollar in late morning trade on persistent selling of the dollar.

In an important development, The Reserve Bank clarified that oil marketing companies’ swap window remains operational. Any tapering of the window, as and when it occurs, will be done in a calibrated manner.

Sentiment was also bolstered after Life insurance Corp of India Chairman SK Roy told to media that it will invest Rs 400 billion in domestic equities in fiscal 2014.

Above all you can say its only strong FII inflow which lifted market, Foreign institutional investors have bought more than Rs 4,400 crore worth of equity shares in cash market this week, including Rs 1,753 crore (provisional figure) bought on Friday. In October so far, they are the net buyers with more than Rs 9,000 crore of shares.

Global Booster -

US lawmakers came to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoided a potential default coupled with encouraging Jul-Sep growth from china.

China's economy grew 7.8% in the third quarter, its fastest pace this year and in line with expectations.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nifty premium is reduced marginally from 25.15 to 21.1, 6000PE (ATM) short got averaged while 6300CE & 6400CE seen addition clearly giving signal to my suggested level of 6020 & 5980 will find good support in this series (in case of a fall) while CE addition is suggesting Nifty can move up from here in between we may see some movement towards 6100 mean can give you feeling that we are moving towards it but it will break of close below that will be decided by key earnings in remaining 2 weeks and important policy announcement.

So overall sentiment is set to move up except today market to see reaction on L&T Q2 nos. which was announced after market hours on Friday.

This is also true market may remain volatile this week as many heavyweight will announce their Q2 nos. this week.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6094 – 6140/45 – 6230

S – 6020 – 5980 - 5840 – 5900- 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 (+125) and 4900-5600

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Coffee, ZEEL

22 Oct – Result – Cairn India, IBR, Wipro, Yes Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

OI Activity –

OI increased in our tracking stocks - AP (11%), SesaSter (10%), BPCL (10%), Adani Ports (10%)

Wipro

Wirpo to announce its Q2 nos this week, as seen in other Tier 1 IT players, it is expected that Wipro will also come out with strong numbers on both the revenue and margin front.

Titan (Result 31 Oct) –

Titan is expected to move up from here. Here’s report for that –

The government has reduced the import tariff value of gold and silver to $418 per 10 gram and $699 per kg, respectively, according to reports.

Report said that the  tariff value, stood at $436 per 10 grams for gold and $702 per kg for silver during the last fortnight.

Trading tips –

As weekly chart one can place SL 237.4 for TG 248.5 / 254 / 260

BhartiAirtel –

Bharti Airtel announced it acquired 100% stake in Wireless Business Services (WBSPL), a company founded by US chipmaker Qualcomm. The company had acquired a 49% stake in WBSPL in May 2012 for US$165mn. The stock rose by 2% to close at Rs355.

Instead of having clue we missed the opportunity due to weakness in 2 sessions.

Zeel –

Today ZEEL will announce its Q2 nos, analysts expect 9 percent growth year-on-year (down 9 percent sequentially) in its net profit of Rs 205 crore.

Total income is likely to increase 10 percent on yearly basis (up 8 percent quarter-on-quarter) to Rs 1,050 crore in September quarter on account of higher sports revenue and monetisation of DAS phase I & II.

RIL & BP –

Global oil company BP and its Indian partner Reliance Industries plan to invest $8-10 bn by 2016/17 in further development of the D6 gas block, Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily reportedly said.

Report said that the natural gas output from the block, has declined to 14 million cubic metres per day (mmscmd) from 60 mmscmd at the end of 2010.

Infra –

In all five companies have responded to the bids invited by the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) from companies to construct the 4.25 km long Sewri-Worli elevated corridor which will provide two lanes each for up and down traffic.

The companies responding to the bids are Gammon India Ltd., Hindustan Construction Company Ltd., Larsen & Tubro Ltd., N.C.C. Limited and Simplex Infrastructure Ltd.

The contract to construct the Sewri-Worli elevated corridor (East-West Connector) will be awarded once the Bid Evaluation process is completed.

The elevated corridor is expected to be ready within 48 months from the award of work.

NOTE – If you are really looking for a jackpot, keep track for this development and on right time we will initiate calls if got info on right time.

IT Sector –

Government IT spending in India will reach $6.4 bn US Dollars (USD) in 2013, a 7 percent increase over 2012, according to Gartner, Inc.

This forecast includes spending by government (government is composed of state and regional government and central government agencies.) on internal IT (including personnel), hardware, software, external IT services and telecommunications.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Open Call –

Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL Hold/0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

Cairn 330CE @5.2 SL 4 TG 9+ (Call closed around 5.6 on Friday and will reinitiate on Monday)

Regarding MBC calls –

I know some of you have made some loss on past 2-3 calls, here I would like to say that mostly I do swing trade so even if 3-4 calls hit SL need not to worry because 1 or 2 jackpot calls will recover all your losses and again you will be in handsome profit. But you just need to follow MBC calls because we don’t know in which bag jackpot is. Secondly you also need patience else we may burn fingers.

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