Morning Bells (04 Dec 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A wise person knows not only what to LOOK but also knows what to OVERLOOK.

After 2 days gain Nifty struggled around the 6200 mark, y’day also Nifty failed to close above my level 6220. Benchmark indices were unable to build on to the momentum despite India’s current account deficit (CAD) at three year low.

CAD narrowed sharply to US$5.2bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q2 of 2013-14 from US$21bn (5% of GDP in Q2 of 2012-13), also much lower than 4.9% of GDP in Q1 of 2013-14. The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports moderated, particularly gold imports.

The FMCG, consumer durables, banking, auto and the capital goods stocks were among the top losers. On the other hand, realty, oil and gas, metals and power stocks were among the top gainers. 

SO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT SHOWS INDIA’S ECONOMY IS TRYING TO COMING ON TRACK AND CAN BE CONSIDERED POSITIVE FOR MARKET TIME BEING BUT FOCUS WILL REMAIN POLL RESUTLS ONLY.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market remain choppy and will wait for election outcome. Till then there’s no clarity in market. I am stick t my ranges which is first Nifty need to close above 6230 from where its declining most and then it will be risky or on cautious zone above 6300 and then finally 6358 which is all time high. On downside 6105 and then 5970 are levels for mid term. While 5940 can act as trend changer on downside.

Most importantly remember - The best approach to trade this market has to take a day-to-day view.

OPENING – Seems under pressure and RED due to global cues.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6357

S – 6105 - 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5935 for Bears and 6357 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

04 Dec 13 – Delhi assembly election, PMI

05 Dec 13 – Beginning of Parliament’s winter session, US GDP, Nov. Auto sales No.

08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result

17 Dec 13 – Fed meeting on 17 & 18 Dec.

18 Dec 13 – RBI Monetary Policy review, Nov Inflations, Oct Industrial output data,

Fed – Most probably it has postponed to March 14.

Santa Rally – Is on card.

OI Activity –

Buying by foreign institutional investors continued as they bought more than Rs 1,300 crore worth of shares.

Though domestic institutional investors were net sellers for the week with nearly Rs 1,000 crore of shares selling, they did buying (over Rs 300 crore) on Thursday for the first time since October 1.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

RIL –

Shares of Reliance Industries was up 1% to close at Rs861 on reports that Reliance Industries-BP combine is leading the race for picking up 25% stake in Gujarat government's planned LNG import terminal at Mundra.

LT –

L&T Construction won new orders worth Rs14.71bn across various business segments in November & December 2013.In Power Transmission & Distribution Business, orders valued Rs6.86bn have been received in both domestic & international markets. The stock was down 1.3% to close at Rs1056

MBC PL –

Dec. PL = +1500 (Old Profit) + 1550 (Y’day gain) = +3050

(Profit in TM 430CE = +1800, Axis short sell = +750, Abank CE = -1000)

Open Call –