Morning Bells (13 Sept 2012)

Good Morning Friends,

Oops!, finally fear of German verdict went smooth and IIP to was out of big disappointment.

So today I have nothing much to say, we just need to watch how further things are going to take place, just play with market sentiment and don’t go against it.

Well, the meeting of Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCAP) which was originally scheduled for Tuesday evening was postponed and now the chances they may meet today evening to decide on raising diesel, cooking gas and kerosene prices. CCPA is headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and it includes ministers from allies of the UPA alliance to discuss important decision, Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy had already stated that a hike in diesel, LPG and kerosene prices is unavoidable as rise in crude oil prices and fall in rupee had led to jump in cost of raw material. So now market will eagerly wait for meeting result.

As per media reports PSU oil firms are losing a record Rs 560 crore per day on the sale of regulated diesel and cooking fuels, and another Rs 16 crore a day on petrol which of course Govt. is losing from its und. Now it would be important to see how market takes it.

For time being we can cheer the positive verdict from the German Constitutional Court on both front Global as well as Domestic.

Now all eye will be on Fed for further easing, if the Fed does not go ahead with another round of QE3, I feel markets would be disappointed and that would be time to exit from longs.

So except Fed now we will look for domestic environment which looks good time being – RBI Monitory policy meet, Govt.’s action on Pending reform bills and moreover CCAP meet’s decision on fuel price hike. Monsoon is also picking up and FII flows to India increasing steadily over the past couple of months. But main trigger for market would be decision on fuel price hike.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Had told you on Friday that aprx. 10 lac shares were added to 4900 put and would be good for bulls, today it proved right. Instead of profit booking at higher levels it moved up with handsome gain. So now market seems either range bound or in consolidation mode as indices gained fair amount and short term investors can look for part profit booking.

Opening seems mildly bearish.

NIFTY –

As told y’day Nifty was stopped at 5435 for further move, now Nifty will face resistance at 5450 & 5470 while support seems 5425 and 5395. FII have initiated fresh longs in index future, 5600 call has highest OI while bears have made fresh position in 5300 & 5400 puts. Bears need to save 5495 till next few session to move above 5500. So in future if bull get success to maintain 5400 mark will act as base till expiry.

Trend remains buy on dips till 5335 is safe on closing basis. Yes still trend changer on lower side is 5335.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Banks – Now all eye will be on banking sector ahead of RBI meet. Bank lovers can keep eye on SBI & ICICI.

TM- TM surprised all 5% upmove, as had suspected that this time operators will play tricky and they played against hopes of all. Well our friends made good profit in TM 250, 260 & 270 calls. Though I am a bit disappointed that due to me some of you have made an early exit, but what should I do, no one would have expected such a big move and I remain safe player. Today I think TM could be under pressure. So for me its watch today, if found anything good will share on board. Operators had also know that many people would have made short positions as 258 was the base and that’s TM went above all expectations. Now resistance at 268 & support comes at 254.

OPEN CALLS –

(Now we need to close our open positions slowly-slowly. Liquidity lover can also close their positions)

Infy – Again made position around 37 and booked profit @44, now call closed.

Apollo Tyre – (bought @94 and @92) – Booked profit @98 call closed.

Cox&Kings - (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC - (Bought at 88) booked profit @94 now call closed.

Bank of India - (bought 258) booked part profit at 262, now call closed.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Enjoy the ride with precaution. Make positions according to Nifty move, don’t go against market sentiment.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.