Thursday, 6 September 2012

Morning Bells (7 Sept 12) -
Good Morning Friends,

Finally the fear has gone, Mario Draghi kept his words “we will do whatever will be needed to save EU” in his previous statement. The European Central Bank agreed a new bond-buying programme on Thursday to lower struggling euro zone countries' borrowing costs which would serve as a "fully effective backstop", ECB President Mario Draghi said in his statement on Thursday.

Mainly addressed issues by Dragi are –
1.      EU Central Bank kept Interest rate unchanged to 0.75 (lowest level )
2.      He’s told - a very gradual economic recovery
3.      Revised down its forecast for GDP of this year between 0.6% and 0.2%.
4.      Agreed on new Bond Buying program to lower the EU countries borrowing cost.

Dragi kept his statement around facts & reality and that was the reason as Dragi started his conference and announced No interest rate cut mkt started sliding but when he announced bond buying program and accepted that we will recover gradually mkt found it realistic and then not only recovered but healthy gains.

On home ground - Petrol price hike is imminent and could be announced in 2-3 days.

Finance Ministry is also taking note to boost the economy, today its announced in Rajya Sabha that as part of its action plan to revive the economy, it is going to fast-track investment in large projects in sectors such as coal, mining, power and roads.

Well I have nothing much to say, as right its time to cheers.

Approx 10 lac shares added to 4900 put y’day, I guess it was with the hope of disappointment from ECB, now this will favour bulls in coming sessions if mkt trend remain up. There was mixed reaction on EU bond program in previous 2 attempts, So now it would be interesting to see how Indian mkt reacts on ECB outcome. Next 2-3 session will finalize the mkt direction.

Still sell on rise is suggested till 5335 is not broken out. Second half would watched carefully, as it will have EU response and need to see whether people go for profit booking or to remain invested.

Y’day Nifty attempted to break its resistance 5260-65 range. So now support comes to 5190 while resistance is 5285 & 5335. If Nifty breaks 5285 then it will favour to bulls in short term.

My view will remain same – breakout of 5290 or 5335 on closing basis will give clear indication for mkt direction.

I am expecting a gap-up opening with 30+ points.


Banks – Since past few days I am saying banks are on my RADAR, now this good time for banks and I see good upmove. My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (for short term TG 1900) and Bank of India (short term TG 375)

TM- Surprised & tricky, it hit the SL of most of traders on both side i.e. longs & shorts. Was saying about 239 breakout since couple of days, seems today can be that day. Watch for 239 if yes then see 246 shortly. Keep SL 231 once it crosses 236.

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on intraday basis for small gains) I guess these stock will be on move in second half of Sept.


Apollo Tyre – (bought @94 and @92) hold stock for updated TG 98+ with SL 86.

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC (Bought at 88) hold for TG 94+, SL 78

Bank of India (bought 358) TG 375+ SL 352

Jain Irrigation – Y’day we made exit at 61.35 as stock was not performing as per expectations.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at (easy approach, evey time you will find it on single click) & at G+ as “Mudra Guru”. One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra
Cheers! Enjoy the ride but with slightly cautious approach.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.


  1. Your suggestion are most welcome. As requested by few of you, I will try to make some call here too.

  2. Friends, Tomorrow Exchange has special trading session from 11.15 to 12.45. Its a disaster recovery exercise which exchange at certain intervals.

    Now we have closed above 5335, if it sustain on Monday then Keep eye on TM DVR & Havells for good gains. Please dont make positions as market starts, always be safe, have look 30-45 minutes and see where mkt is going on.

    Best Luck - MG

  3. Sir I have some queries ....
    As you mentioned 5335 level to watch for break out....that happened already today....So what will be the direction??I mean is it clear that Nifty will go up or some bumpy rides ahead ...??
    Secondly, some one has asked you on MMB that he is planning to short TM @ 250 level....and you told him that he might get what is your expectation from TM or view on TM for at least this AUG series(you know I am more concerned about this series coz I am in a hedge position)??I am curious because some guys are posting too much optimistic view like TM is heading towards 280 if 256 crossed or within 2 trading session 255 is achievable...etc.....
    Thirdly , today I have come across a post on MMB where it was told that ,
    "Never believe these so called experts also one should look at the DVR the promoter holding has come down from 85% to under 3%, so it`s a matter of time the difference in prices narrow down from the current 40%"-Krisis3

    Is there any relation between decrease in promoter holding and increase in price???If so then is this guy analyzing correctly that TMDVR and TM price difference will be narrowed soon??

    Forthly , you often tells that you dont believe in "Nasty Charts" do you believe in fundamental analysis??If so then based on fundamental how do you trade in option segment so correctly cause Fundamental analysis probably for long term goal nah(as per my understanding,might be wrong?? or is there any misconception in my understanding??

    Thank You Sir..
    Yours truly
    Arka Prabha De

  4. Dear Arka,

    yes Nifty has closed above expectation, now just one thing to watch in next 2 session, whether it will sustain or not. If sustain that mean Nifty heading to break 5400-5500 too but options suggest strong resistance at 5400.

    Secondly for whom you are talking about try to have look on their history, I dont deny anyone but in my words I call them Tukka Call Makers (TCM), like u can try it, make a call on TM board "TM will reach 255 in 3 trading session", if it will then u can come on board with loud voice and will claim, but if not then you have limited followers as well as no morale (not exactly for u, just giving ex.) so you will disappear for few day then will come again. In between if someone will ask them then they just start barking.

    They are purely based on Nasty charts, I have simple question from chart expert, if stock was able to move on charts then from where 52 week high & low has come? Yes my score for chart never goes above 50% itself meant stock movement depend on many things for further development.

    Look for todays stock list, many stock u will find close in RED instead of 100+ pt upmove, think why?

    If promoters reduces their stock - first impression they are going out of stock, again think why? If u have 1000 TM at 190 and stock is going constantly up, will you go out of that?? But on other side - how they come to know about it? ask them.

    Well these topics will remain discussion point always, better concentrate on your trade. I hope I replied to your queries. If anything still there plz post msg.

    Thanks for writing to MG.

  5. Friends, No Bells for tomorrow session as it wont impact that much and big players will remain out of trade, they will just watch the session for any mischief.

  6. Sir , I have read the conversation between you and noob on MMB...and from your answer to my post here...I am trying to make some understanding(requires your judgement)... Probably you are hoping for another 50-70 points upmove in Nifty and subsequently upto 250 or atmost 255 for Tata Motors....and then again a drop in Tata Motor where tata motor will come down atleast below 246-247(you have mentioned this level as resistance many times) because If TM is averaged above 250(lets say at 255) then avg price will be 246-247(cause noob has shorted @ 240 and you have advised him to short above 250 for avging) and to get a profit out of that TM should go below 246-247....Am I in correct way??

    I have checked the promoter holding pattern data of TataMotorDVR just now from Moneycontrol...It is showing till DEC 11 only around 9% share is under probably that guy was fooling us...but current data is showing that only 2.04% under promoter possession a reduce of 7% in promoter are they not hopeful about future of TataMotorDVR ??

    Sir actually I want to learn your trading styles , thats why I asked you about the fourth point.

    Regarding my concentration on my trade,Sir I have some know my entire history..How long may it take to recover those 60K(I can take risk of 6K-8K per month)??I am asking this because you have told that you also have suffered great loss in market and have recovered from your mistakes so probably you have an idea on how much time it may require?(Sir I dnt know how much have you lost But 60K is huge for me..plz help me)

    1. Dear Arka,

      1. I can't tell u exact time frame for recovery, if u had met me 2 months back u would have recovered a lot as my 4 calls made rocking history (one can check my messages on MC board for veracity), have a look -

      (a) Tree House - call@200 booked profit 255 (1month)
      (b) AK Capital - call@159 booked profit 190 (15 days)
      (c) RS Software - call @90 booked profit 140 (15-20 days)
      (d) JK Tyre - call @90 booked profit 120 (one week)

      2. I am not telling I dont follow charts (charts are really good friends for trade if you used it for reference and not as granted), I told I dont rely too much on Nasty chart pattern and was not for chart techniques. Good ex. last week RIL was very near to forming HNS pattern, I have made call on RIL @764, Friends suggested its weak and will go down but finally I made proft @790

      3. TM & DVR has few basic difference (google it and know more about it), its ordinary shares have limited power, so reducing holdings wont affect it much. All depend, sometimes promoters reduces stock if they dont see any good move in long term, sometimes they sell due to liquidity, so all depends.

      4. What I have suggested to Noob is as per his current situation and doesn't mean I am suggesting TM will fall, read it carefully, he's ready to rollover too. My view was simple - I had suggesgted TM will cross 239 and then will attempt to 246 and then finally will attempt to 250-255 range, and after that what will happen will be decided by having look on current data. Yes I NIfty has resistance at 5400 and need to watch, once break on closing will head to 5450-5500.

      For you good idea - whatever you are saving put it in suggested stock or ask that time, whenever I will find good opportunity will give all you a call, till that have patience and trade in cash mkt only. Best luck

    2. Ok...Thank you Sir...probably I am asking you too much...but actually I want to learn and after 5 to 6 years I want to be a professional trader(dnt wanna be in software field/job)...

      Sir I want to share some of my thoughts, what I have observed just now...last time when nifty was at peak i.e. 5412/5421/5415 range CNX IT index was at 6099/6207 range...but this time Nifty is still well below that peak (nearly 60 points down) but CNX IT is now at according to me IT is outperformer...and we can play bullish in IT(at least the large cap like TCS,INFY,HCL)....Am I in right way Sir?? need your guidence....Thank you Sir...

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    1. Bullshit is not allowed at least here, this place is for genuine traders only. copy & paste from other place will be removed.

  8. Sir this Sukhani is a real ****...everytimes he tells the opposite thing...and this time he is telling TM will touch 270...I am Afraid...

    1. Hi arka, you have to look support / Resistance and then market trend and what is your time horizon. It may reach 270 but may be quick or take 1-2 month or more. All depends market mood. best thing follow support resistance. if 250 crossed then it should be work as SL and then look for 257 and more..

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