Monday, 3 September 2012

Morning Bells (4 Sept. 12) - 
Good Morning Friends,

So finally that FEAR (parliament deadlock) has taken place y’day.

As pointed out in yesterday’s morning bells about parliament deadlock fear which had come true Y’day. So start of fresh series is seems completely lacklustre despite of positive global cues. As discussed all positive cues Y’day (GAAR, GDP,, Global cues), were in the favour of market and that’s market opened on positive note and extended gains, but in second half it gave up all the gains when congress announced to dismissed all the demands by BJP. Actually it was a super class googly which has only two results – either catch out or bold out for market.

Fed Chairman Bernanke left the door open in Jackson Hole for further stimulus if needed. Now all eyes on ECB meet on Thursday. It seems ECB could cut rates, investors also eying for detail on a new bond-buying plan to ease the funding pressures on Spain and Italy. (Report

Due to high end political drama there is hardly any visibility in on front of policy measures or any other announcement. In between Govt. succeeded to pass 3 bills between logjams in parliament and one of them is National Highway amendment and that’s IRB was one who closed up 2.48%.

Now all hopes with ECB which can give direction to lighten portfolio so next some stimulus from ECB because RBI meet on 17 would be a neutral event and seems there will be nothing much to cheer.

So sell on rise is suggested.

Told many times and now would suggest keeping close eye on this levels and doing your trade accordingly. Watch Nifty range – on upside 5265 – 5300 – 5330 and on down side 5240-5220-5200. Till Nifty remains in this range one need to make positions only on intraday basis. I also like to warn here especially to FNO traders as warned in the beginning of series that this series again seem very tricky, so few range bound sessions will reduced the premium and will be non-beneficial for hedge traders. So better to book profit Intraday to 2-3 sessions, Nothing wrong in selling on high levels and take same positions on lower levels.

OI decreases and Nifty going down indicating FII have started profit booking in longs and taking short positions. As told in weekend as Nifty upside is shifting to 5400 from 5500 is seems true.

As per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5330. Fall below 5200 could exposes the index to further falls to 5100-5050 even there is high chances of huge gap down opening too. Nifty falls to 5050 mark then it would be good for market to make new high of 2012 in coming months.

Openings seem in hand of Bears.


Keep eye on – HDFC Bank & SBI (On Intraday basis), Infra stocks related to National Highway like IRB, GMR.

TM- Day was not good for Tata group stocks, almost all Tata group stocks were under pressure. Seems tough time ahead for TM and Tata Steel. Today’s TM range is 226-231-237.

CAG Effect – Cos got breather as UPA II rejected the BJP demand but one should keep eye on 25 cos of which Govt. is set to take legal action just to prove their action on CAG.

Kalyani Steels will be in news after the Supreme Court lifted the ban on category A mines in Karnataka, stock rose 9%.

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

Apollo Tyre – For Longs (bought @94) can book profit above 97, SL 86

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) and FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Today’s MG Mantra Lighten up your portfolio before Friday. Don’t forget to book part profit to safe your investment. Do not fall in temptation Medium to long term right now; one should wait for right Entry levels.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.


  1. Thank you Mudra Ji, it is great idea indeed to shift to your own blog. I saw your analysis on Money control, and appreciate the approach you follow. Your Morning Bell is very well covered topic for this matter.

  2. Thanks ji, yes I was getting so many request for one point text and also was not happy with whatever was happening there on board. Thanks all of you, without your love and support it was not possible. Look forward to your support & love as always.