Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Morning Bells (04 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

We believe Goodluck will do some day something!... But we don’t know Goodluck is also waiting that we do something someday.

So Friends main Indian stock indices saw a lacklustre session and Index closed with slender gains as market players remained on the sidelines after seeing the indices to 15-month highs. Investors are also cautious ahead of quarterly corporate earnings season. Infy will be the first big company to announce its results on October 12

New from another reform is a high-level committee headed by HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh, today recommended increasing electricity charges and rail fares. Suggesting big-ticket reforms to attract investment in the infrastructure sector, also pitched for 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in the telecom sector. The limit at present is 74 per cent.

The panel also suggested raising prices of natural gas. These recommendations are aimed at attracting Rs 51.46 akh crore for funding infrastructure sector during the 12th ive Year Plan (2012-17), said the report which was presented o Prime Minister Manmohan Singh earlier in the day. (Report

FM has also done quite a lot, now all eyes on GAAR, first thing which he did after his appointment as finance minister was to appoint the Shome Committee and told them to submit the report by Sept.30, its done. Committee recommended, first GAAR should be postponed. Secondly, GAAR should not be applied across the board, and third, GAAR should not be applied where there are tax treaties and introspective taxes should be used only to set right certain things and not settle scores. So if the government accepts it, and seems Govt. is in the mood to accept it, otherwise why appointed this committee? So if recommendations get incorporated then that will be hugely positive for market.

Also good news is that currency is getting strengthened; the rupee gained for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday to touch a new five-month high. The initial leg-up has happened in both the currency and the stock market on the back of the reforms. And currency seems to continue to get more upside. It would be good sign because inflation as well as the deficit, there is room for improvement because the currency has strengthened and approx 70-80% of the import bill is oil.

In another event Brokerage house CLSA has reiterated its 'sell' recommendations on retail chains Titan, Pantaloon Retail and Shoppers Stop, saying the profit margins would be under pressure in the foreseeable future because of sluggish economic growth. CLSA has also downgraded Infy and Infy tanked y’day.

On Global front the eurozone debt crisis continues to act as a major overhang for the global economy. The US economy too seems to be losing some steam while China too is grappling with a deeper-than-anticipated slowdown

Spain is another worry on global front, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is desperately hoping that solution will emerge and save him from a Catch-22 situation - the pressures of the regional elections in his birthplace of Galicia on October 21 and accepting the bailout package from the ECB at the EU summit in Brussels on October 18. (Report

This week Auto and Cement stocks will remain in focus as companies from these two sectors will announce their monthly sales volume data for September.

So once again, October series is full of promises and various actions globally. This is also month of corporate earnings so market will remain full of thrill. On global front any move from China to support its economy will be an added positive, particularly for commodities.

So next stimulus could be from China, Markets are now focusing on whether China will inject more stimuli by way of more infrastructure spending or a rate cut.

Market will remain in tight range because markets have consolidated, broken out above 5700 and Nifty seems heading slowly towards 5800-5850. The move is slow and reason is simple, we saw 50-100 point gains in a single session, big gap ups last series and that cannot be happen all the time.

Market trend remain buy on dips, so small correction could be used to make fresh entry at lower levels till 5600 is not broken out.

As told close above 5740 will lead to break 5800, could be 5830-5850. So probably I expect in the next two-three days we see another 50-70 points get added to the Nifty.

So probably Oct series is going to remain in 200 pts range, First attempt could be close above 5740 then Nifty will enter to crucial range 5740-5775, I will say watch it carefully and if something comes boosting then we can head 5830-5850-5900 else market can take back from this range to test 5650-5600 mark. So development in upcoming days will confirm the mood of market. But as far as I see it’s a around 200 pts series.

Bulls are trying to break strong resistance or say crucial range of 5740-5750 but not getting success which putting investors sideline.

Vix is up 1% to 16.5 and Nifty PCR 0.93.

Resistance 5740 – 5771 - 5830 and Supports 5714 – 5683 – 5672 - 5614.

Opening seems positive say around/above our first resistance level, thought SGX Nifty is down.

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks (after small correction in banks) – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Brent crude - can clipped to 105$ and could remain in the range 105-111 for Oct. series.

KFASeems troubles are just behind of stock, after failing to assure its lenders with any 'concrete' solution for restructuring of debt (Company has total loans of around Rs 7,000 crore.), Now management has declared partial lock-out till Thursday. I had already warned to stay away from stock times being till aprx 20% correction. Since past 3 sessions there’s no buyer for stock. So one should wait till Diageo deal finalization.

Banks Govt. has decided to give interest subsidy of 2% a year to all state owned banks for farm loans upto Rs 3 lakh in 2012-13. Finance Minister proposed to continue the interest subvention scheme for providing short term loans to farmers at 7% p.a in FY13. Public sector banks (PSBs) generally charge 9% rate of interest on farm loans. Lenders can now claim for 2% back from the government of India while disbursing such loans at 7%.

Keep eye on Dhanalaxmi Bank and YES bank for short to midterm bet.

IT Investors are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems under pressure.

Infy - Shares of Infosys Ltd. fell on Wednesday after CLSA's sales team said that the stock could drop as much as 40% from the current levels and announced a price target of Rs. 1566.

Insurance and PharmaFII now eying on further reforms in sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both sector.

(One can also find open calls under our "Call History" section)

Nifty 5900CE - @31 for TG 55+ SL 15

TM 300CE - @3.75 for TG 4.5-5+ SL 2.25

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

PFC - @187 for TG 198+ SL 176 (short to midterm bet)

Titan - @260 for TG 265++ SL 247 (After CLSA we need to close position with minimum profit today as nothing wrong with stock but report will put unnecessary selling pressure)

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at (every time to find it on single click rather than to scroll here) One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra
Since all are talking for correction and big crocos can take advantage so it would be wise to keep strict SL for all your longs and wait for close above 5740-50 mark to book part profit.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.


  1. Hello sir ,
    I would like to draw attention on two scrips , viz Tata comm (cmp 251) and Financial technologies (cmp 970).
    As , gov have to collect as much funds they can , to control fiscal deficit they are planning to sell excess land of gov companies. In this tata comm is strong contender , so we can consider futher up side in it .
    Today (4 oct) there is cabinet meet for various bills and reforms like land acquisition , FCRA , insurance sector and much more .
    From that , the FCRA bill may be passed in few days , this will give the regulator more power. The MCX exchang is also on the way to be launched in few days , hence the parent company , Financial technologies have a decent upside.
    I would like to know your view on this also from other members.
    Thank you.

    1. Thanks Don, will have look and let you know. Good job.

    2. Don you can buy Tata Comm, nothing harm seen.

    3. I am alraedy holding tata comm average price 240 for last 1 year.

  2. Any thoughts on infra stocks like ivrcl & idfc, they are moving quite nicely?

    1. Hi Ram, its almost 2+ weeks I am saying Infra is one which will gain most, I think after announcement of FDI I am repeatedly PC making single window clearance system for Infra and Infra are on move, that time IDFC was around 145, IRB was 130, JPA was 80.

    2. Ram, IVRC - can toch 54-55

  3. Hi MG,

    Got some news about bajaj corp. planning to buy tomorrow for 2-3 days with 10-15% gain.

    Also please klet me know if we can buy some infosys puts today?

  4. Now onward journey is crucial so need to book profit & keep strict SL because OI is above 2Cr. which seems danger and a bit carelessness will put us in danger. So be with strict SL, a bit weakness can have a big dip.

  5. Dear MG! Is it time to go short on titan! Have to cover a big loss in it. Or shud I wait for mkt to touch 5850.. Thanks

  6. Archana, catch you after 10.30

    Friends - TG Achieved, so book profit

    PFC - 198+ (bought 187)

    Nifty 5900CE - Reaching to 55+ (bought 30-32) Book one lot

  7. sir,i have bought Axis 1200CE at 24.80, thinking if the cabinet meeting results comes +ve,it will go up. What's your view on this???

  8. GM Sir,
    Ur Dhanbank call is stagnated, seems to be at overbought levels(According to technicals). Do you still think it can reach targets?

  9. All longs need to close or strict close SL once Nifty crosses 5810 mark.

    Dhana is mid term bet, short traders already suggested to book profit in both Jindal Photo & Dhana

    1. Do you suggest we close all the open calls MG?
      I have closed 59 CE and holding on to TM 300 and Dhanlaxmi and Jindal Photo.Please suggest on Dhanlaxmi and Jindal photo have a horizon of 1month.

    2. don't worry dear, MG sir has suggested that means it will hit the target sooner or later. max 2 weeks that's all. I am simply following his calls.

    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  10. MG Sir, Is it safe to buy cement sector shares like J K Laxmi or India Cement for short term perspective. Rgds

    1. Dear Palak, all cement stock are going good, will have look in the eve. to your stock, my pick was ACC and Ambuja. But now wait as Nifty around 5800 mark and some correction can take place, mkt is breathing only hope of cabinet meet.

  11. Dear MG sir, I have 8 lots of TM310CE @1.8 Should I hold this or book profit?

    1. As told once Nifty reaches above 5810 mark longs need to close or with strict SL, TM can touch 282

    2. Hi MG do you think Tata Motors will touch 282 today?

  12. Hi MG,

    Can we buy Nifty 5600 PE at 20 ??

    1. Also, we can buy Nifty 6000 call and 5600 Put at same time. if anyone of these comes to 50 we can book the other will be trading at 8-10 rs. this will be our profit.

      what you say??

  13. MG Sir, what's ur view about today meeting, if all well positive, all tomorrow will be gap up opening..I am having profit in ITC and TM @ 9.45 (280),so should I wait till it reaches given TG ? Rgds

  14. Friends any update on cabinet meeting outcome?

    1. Not yet MG...meeting's outcome is yet to come

  15. Hope Titan friends would have booked profits!

  16. Sir,often heard that market(price) discounts everything or something like that.....and the way reality stocks are moving(particularly HDIL(m tracking)) can we expect something definitely positive for this sector???

  17. Call Closed today -

    Nifty 5900 CE @ 54 (bought 30-32)

    PFC @ 198 (bought 187)

    Titan @267-268 (bought 260)

  18. Sir,congrats for the calls. Are you making any new calls for tomorrow?
    (Considering a v good chance of a gap up opening tomorrow!)

  19. MG Sir, should I exit from Nifty 5900 call, brought @ 31.95 ? Rgds

  20. Hi what could be the strategy to be adopted with ITC. Is it the right to enter?. Buy or sell.

  21. Hai Jaga, I am new to market but I am tracking ITC, it has strong resistance @ 260-265, I thk festive season will definitely give boost and in Zee business, they recommend it to touch 300 in short span of time, but still have some expert advice. Rgds

    1. Yea,
      If there is a stake selling by the govt. then one can pick up the stock at 260 levels.
      So best is to wait for a correction and not be in a hurry!

    2. Thanks for your reply. I too waited for correction. But, it continuously shooting up everyday. I feel, i missed the express. Your statements gave me hope again. is the stake selling agenda discussed in today's meeting?. Any idea.

  22. Hi friends ,
    looking at todays volumes , gov may not take so called reforms today . This is my personal view , well everyone should be careful and put stoploss.
    thank you.

  23. Thanks Friends, I remain busy with watching market moves so do not interact quickly and also some of friends putting good info so its not necessary to interfere in that if info are good.

    Hope you have enjoyed calls and booked profits.

    See you tomorrow, Don could be right in tomorrow's case I have also seen that and also worry is EU turned RED. Lets see what happens.

  24. MG Sir, Thank you for ur Nifty Call Could earn around 2K on this. Very grateful sir.

  25. Yet no news on Cabinet meet outcome. Probably very less chance to proceed reforms further, considering immediate polls in Gujarat, J&K and few other states.
    Moreover, FDI in insurance and pension sectors should be avoided, it will lead more criticization on the govt.

  26. MG Sir, It happened as it happens to me most of the times. I bought Dhanlaxmi at 58.55 and IRVCL at 51.30. After that both went down, IRVCL to the extent to 47.70.I hope it will revive tomorrow.

  27. Dear Rajvanshi,

    Every stock has a correct price to enter. That's when its suggested remain best buy. Well for Dhana, times is ahead as already told its Mid term bet. IRV - will have look in weekend, someone had asked and first look was to reach around 54-55.

    If you are in cash then no worry.

  28. Dear Mudra, the Nifty call was fantastic as expected and thanks.

    IVRCL looked strong yesterday, but corrected 6% today.. pls suggest if we can re-enter at what level.

    1. Dear Ram, IVR is not in my list I had looked it for a request. Will see in the eve. or in weekend.

      Plz always remember, success behind my call is I track them on regular basis and not predict on chart basis.

  29. It seems the news is out.
    FDI is approved in insurance and pension

  30. MG,

    Yesterday you posted on MMB about BHEL that it will go up.
    Today it was the top-most gainer of nifty with 7% gain.
    Congrats Sir. On this forum this call was missing, so thought that i should share this superhit call of yours here.

    In the morning, i mentioned about bajaj corp. It also rallied by 4% and finally settled with 2% gain. I hope that in next 2 days, it may go up further by 10% as its result to be announced on 5th Oct are better than expected.

    1. Thanks Selva for sharing BHEL... yes blog missed it in recent... but if you would have look a week or two week earlier MB then you will find it in MBells that I have suggested BHEL that time it was around 220, so call was first made here then y'day someone asked and my reply was to that.

      Well its too difficult to track too many calls at once, secondly msgs keep me busy, everybody looks for individual reply rather than to have a look on current discussion on comment section and that's sometimes I missed TGs.

      So as told 2-3 days back once again I am opting slightly reserved policy for betterment of all of you, I read every comment as quick as you type (or say max 10 min) so if not replying in individual mean reply is on board and I am not missing you query. Secondly not replying to other than my knowledge also mean I am not able to comment on it.

      Well hope you all are enjoying the calls.

  31. Hi Don, where do you see volumes & other info, I see it in my trading terminal so cant share, but if you are using any web then plz share info, so all will also be benefited.

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. Hello sir ,
      I use sharekhan service for trading , there is complete info of volumes , total traded volumes and total buy and sell data . This terminal is quite user friendly but not cheap for traders as brokerages are high.
      Sir ,
      since i view trading volumes in few front line companies time to time , which was not sufficient for pre announcements from gov., I thought it would be either prosponed or canceled. But I was wrong side , and regret it , although having long position in Financial tech and SBI .
      This is the way market works , when you think it is over , it starts.
      My father says "TIMING IS VERY IMP."
      Will be waiting eagerly for your todays update .
      Thank you.

    3. No regret, Govt. has only announcement but all these need nod from parliament. So cheer is there but still it has long to go.

      You father is very much correct, this I tell repeatedly, entry and exit at correct level is always important, else you will always remain on losing side.

      OK time to have a look on MB and other stocks.

      I hope tomorrow we will have chance to book profit in balance Nifty lot and in other positions.

      2 years back I was there in Alibaugh, nice place but too much commercial, may be due to increasing tourists.

      I love your name, and have thought sometimes to see you there.

    4. Hello sir,
      my name is aniket kharade (donalibag) , and I am a small trader trying to earn more and trading since 2008.
      Sir , you are most welcome to Alibag , when ever you are planning to visit , you can contact me (
      thank you for your compliments.