M Bells will update in the eve. around 11PM.
Till then I thought to have though on an interesting subject and think
at least our blog followers should need to read it once.
=========== MESSAGE POSTED BY ARKA =============
Arka Prabha De14 October 2012 12:06
Sir I posted this on 11 th,Sir need your view...
Sir I have two more question....
Sir I posted this on 11 th,Sir need your view...
Sir I have two more question....
1. In the year 2009(probably in April May) in some TV program I heard about kajaria ceramics ..at that time it was 28-32 range...they just told it is good bet for long term not quick return but its a slow but steady stock.....I just forgot about it...suddenly today I checked it , now it is @ 203....Sir how they can predict like that(probably its a very silly question,yet)??Sir Can I invest in it now for long term??(If you dont track it then leave it Sir,otherwise it will create un-necessary pressure on you)
2. On Moneycontrol board I have read this from jacs6401
"Slightly irrlevant to the general discussion but nevertheless, a very thoughtprovoking fact.
I have a friend from Pakistan. His father-in-law never invested in any property or jelwelry though he was a well-to-do businessman. Every year or whenever he saved something, he invested in Unilever, Pakistan. Today, he is one of the board of directors there solely due to his holding in the company and his mansion(huge) and household is run solely from the dividend income.
Something to think about !"
Sir Can I start an SIP in ITC or if there is other good stocks for long term that you are tracking??...Thanks Sir
================== MY TAKE ON YOUR MESSAGE ==================
Dear Arka, though you have posted wonderful message but it gives lot of message. Well, my view is -
First of all that was old time and scrip were available on such a chip rate like 10-22 Rs., Same case you consider for Infy in India which was available on below 50 Rs. ppl who were remain invested think multiple of their money today.
What important is to judge the multibaggers (on valuation and type of business) and you need patience, no matter where the stock is going on.
But today when market is available on single click, most of player want to make money in a single day i.e. we dont have patience, DREAMS ARE SO BIG BUT DONT HAVE TIME TO FULLFILL ITS FUNDAMENTAL NEED.
Same case I am sharing interesting & real incident - my friends wanted to put 50K in banks, I had suggested to buy 500 shares of Vadilal Industries 8-9 months back, he'd bought it around 110 levels. Few months after it went to 90 levels, he started calling me, I felt irritation and told him to book loss and get your losses from me. Then he never called me, last week I received a mail from him saying sorry and told me that I had to listen you, had to trust you and had to hold the scrip - I asked what happened? he told me haven't you checked Vadilal, I said no, I remain busy with other stuff, then I checked, it was to my surprise that it was trading at 266.
So you need to have patience, market is not for quick money, thought it seems easy but 80-90% of you now know the fact that it isn't easy.
Most of time stock pay you in Mid to Long term, market remain volatile due to traders and not due to investors, investors always remain aside from day to day volatility.
Same case - see my investment requirement of RS Software, ppl made just double in 2-3 months and if had patience then it was more than double today.
Same way - I bought TreeHouse education at 130 last year around Aug, stock went down to 110, people thought its failed scrip and then all of sudden it started rocking, few weeks back it was around 255, i.e. its too double in a year's time.
But actually today demand is for more - that's greed for more. "Thoda aur mil jata to kitna achcha rehta" while life's quote in stock market should be "Thoda he Thode Ki Zarurat he", though we dont know what will happen next moment, we could be billionaire we could be beggar.
People dont think that way that - if I am investing 20K and if I am getting 10K after 3-4 months than its 50% return on my investment in very short time. They come here to make 20+K in a single expiry, if this was so easy - me and all of you were billionaire in just few months.
As we called "Traders", one need to read the definition of trader, trader who buy material from one person and sell it with 2-3% profit to other, same is applicable to stock market. But people caught under the fire of Options.
Just remember - IF YOU WANT TO FULLFIL YOUR DREAMS, YOU NEED TO GIVE IT TIME, ELSE ONE DAY MARKET WILL KICK YOU OUT.
Remember my quote - People think goodluck will do something for me one day to fulfill my wish, and goodluck thinks that you will do smoething for goodluck one day.
So its debatable topic, but reality is, its not debatable instead its more to acceptable topic of facts. So its depend how one takes it
GEETA LINES (one of friend Vivek has its Tag Line) - Tu karta wohi he jo tu chahata he... Par hota wohi he jo me chahata hoon... Isiliye tu kar wo hi jo mein chahata hoon... Fir hoga wohi jo tu chahata he.
hmmmm.....I should be disciplined ..... Sir one question....when you have reco about Vadilal or Treehouse or RS Software , were you sure at that time that these wud be a multibagger ?? or at the beginning you picked up them like dhanalaxmi jindalphoto and gradually they turned out to be a multibagger???
ReplyDelete(I am asking this because , I was in tenth standard and was reading a poetry of Rabindranath Tagore , our teacher was explaining that poetry in various different ways....what it means from literature aspect,what it conveys from social aspect,what is the message underneath,what is the religion aspect and many more aspects....So I just asked him,"Sir,did Rabindranath also consider and think about all those aspects before writing this poetry?? Or is it you/we who are trying to make this poetry fit for all those aspects??"....probably he didnt expect this from me,so became angry(but I had no intention to insult anyone,It just came to my mind and I asked)So he was angry but controlled his temper and told,"You can expect juice from Mangoes , nt from Dates,coz it is already contained in mangoes not in dates...Well needless to say it is an example and at the same time Mango here is the Poetry and Date is YOU".....I was embarrassed and became mischievous at that moment and told,"But Sir today we can make Milk Shake of both of them....means we can make them fit to our expectation",,,He turned red nd rushed out from class....dont want to tell what happened with me thereafter:)...)...So Sir please dont get angry...I was just asking probably because I dont know the analysis behind that indicates the chances/sureness about a stock...so...
Thanks Sir...
now I think at the starting of this series I should go for you delivary based calls too...but I can buy only 200 dhanalaxmi or 80-100 jindalphoto.....:( :( ...but yeah after Infy incident It seems that was safer choice ....
ReplyDeleteActually You got me right Sir....dreams were really big...not sure whether they are still now....2 years back after getting the job my dream was atleast I should have a Harley-Davidson bike(coz there are lots of Enfields) within 2 yrs, I should get a Porsche(coz Merc-Benz or BMW are very common now a days) within 8-9 years(and ya,Lamborghini was my dream car) and set a goal that what Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had done in 52 years of age I should posses that within 38-40 years of age...
ReplyDeleteHow kiddish I were!!! My dream TREE is standing like thunderstruck .....frustrated ...
Dear Arka & Uday,
ReplyDeleteYou both are not getting the inner soul of this article. I haven't told you all that options are bad, in short you can say "either all are good or all are bad" then what does it mean?? it mean that use of various tools like CM, Future or Options at correct time is ALWAYS GOOD but in hope to multiple your investment and making a habit to use them every time IS BAD.
Like what - in the start of this series I made call for Nifty 59CE at 28 and sold at 58, ppl made good profit, then once again we made call at 31 and booked profit at 54-55 was good (third one was with note "Risk Taker"), so you had doubled your investment 2 times, now what??? you had to wait for good opportunity, but NO, we again fall under temptation.
I had read a story of a crow during my primary education - crow collects pebbles and drop into water pot to bring water up and then it quenched its thirst.
Moral - If you have 20K with you, give market six months, start earning anyway like 2K to 5K in each month. After 6 months it would be around 40K, then you can put 20K in CM and then can start again with 20K... what's the difference - this time your risk is zero and you would be under system.
Because opportunity comes rare and not everyday, to en-cash or say make max. of it you need big amount and this is the only way you can earn in market else you will be always a looser. So dont take to heart but its TRUE and we all know it.
My personal trade - I have made only 3 position till date in this series (because on investment part my condition is also same like yours, I dont have too much cash in my trading account) and right now holding only 1TM call nothing else and just waiting for right opportunity with my cash.
Why I explained FNO series with Cricket, ask yourself, is it possible to make a six or four on every ball of every hour for world's any batsman???
If you find answer of this, definitely you will find a clever trader in yourself.
Thank you sir, this article has enlightened me. The main goal is to be patient and disciplined and not give into greed.
DeleteAnother important thing which this explains is, slow and steady wins the race.
DeleteRegarding you question - whether I was aware about it or not - YES I was very much sure (but can't guarantee as its stock market), see my profile I have mentioned them as Multi-baggers, but due to repeated reminders and asking on slightly down side I tell them to book profit. Else I prefer to book profit at comfortable level and then to re-enter is always suggested.
ReplyDeleteThank you Sir.....Sir I think to some extent I have got the inner idea of this article ..... actually I was telling my realization that I should be disciplined and must control my my greed .... actually Infy gave me a big blow this time and probably m not yet recovered from that shock.....more over its just my greed that made me suffer this loss.....(On that day Infy 2450 PE went upto 144 and later 2600CE went upto 12,but I continued waiting for 2450 PE to move over 160 and ultimately sold it @ 110)....Tremendous lesson ..... wo aap MCB me kahi baar keh chuke ho "aapna to funda simple hai,nhi kamaya to bhi chalega but gawana nhi chahiye,usse raat ki neend chaali jaati hai"
DeleteSimilarly MG sir i think Hero motocorp also investment. I have 10@1990,10@1816. If there is downside still shall i buy it. Wat is ur opnion. Y it is decline day by day.
ReplyDeleteI asked you regarding fundamental of commodies. I correlated commodies price change VS nifty change. Pls direct me.
ReplyDeletePls tell me how currency is linked wth market.
Dear Venkata,
DeleteFirst of all I do not trade in commodities as I hate this MCX trading which badly hitting farmers interest & benefits, so I never look to commodities. Yes if commodities going up you can relate it to Inflation and shortage in buying power of common men.
Regarding currency - I just keep my eye for Rs. moves, though in a current scenario its doesn't affect much as we have already seen 56-57, so till it remain above 50 wont affect much.
I only concentrate on Nifty movement which I think more necessary if you are trading only in Capital Market.
Hero Motocorp - yes it cold be a multibagger but its already achieved half a way, so here onward it may go to 5K but how much time it will take wouldn't be worth for small traders, as big investors look for 15+% growth PA while traders' demand is 15%+ growth PM, so you are holding total 40K stock and if you will get it 80K after 4 years is good if you are happy with that. Because in current situation way is not easy for 2 wheelers.
Really thank you MG sir. Of course i taken sb money to buy Hero Motocorp. It taken as long term investor. They paid 45 rs dividend also. Like SIP monthly i want to invest slow and steady in tata motor..tata steel etc. I really love ur brand MudraGuru. Keep rocking.
Delete