Friday, 19 October 2012

Morning Bells (19 Oct 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Word of Caution - Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

I don’t believe in taking right decisions. I take decisions and then make them right. – Ratan Tata

So finally Nifty came out from a narrow range tag line and closed above 5700 Mark. Y’day mainly interest rates sensitive stocks lifeted the Nifty, Banking, Realty and the Auto stocks were among the top gainers.

Market is behaving very strange, today I had guessed it may give a miss to passing the ball and it did, so next move could be take the ball.

Well, today we have TCS result and market will sharply react on it. It has outperformed in the past few quarters than Infy and the street would expect it to set the pace once again in the second quarter. Market analysts expect TCS to report 3.5-4% sequential revenue growth in the second quarter. Margins are likely to be stable. Nomura, Motilal Oswal and Elara have a "neutral" rating for TCS.     So lets see how TCS surprise the street.

Also Coal India is likely to discuss in the board meeting today the issue of lawsuit filed by The Children's Investment (TCI) Fund Management of the UK against the company.

On Global front China’s GDP grew 7.4% in Q3, after it met market estimates. However, it was marking its slowest pace since early 2009. Along with the GDP numbers, industrial output for September rose 9.2% YoY

US Stocks trading lower in the wake of data showing weekly initial jobless claims were more than expected.

On Thursday 18 October, the members of the European Council had to travel to Brussels for their usual Autumn meeting, market will eye on outcome.

So finally it closed above 5700 mark, now it would be interesting to see whether its crosses 5730-5740 mark or not. As I am guessing 5750 is the capped mark for this series and if it crosses the limit with good volume short cover will drive it to 5800 Mark. Market is behaving extremely strange and is tough to predict and that investors are focusing on the corporate earnings.

Today all eyes will be on ITC and Tata Consultancy Services results.

Its still in No Trade Zone, one can make only Intraday position or can wait for breakout of level either side.

FII once again made long in index futures and covered shorts y’day.

5800CE has highest OI of 1 Crore with unwinding of 15lacs contracts, 5700CE has also seen unwinding of 13 lacs having OI of 54 Lacs. while 5700 PE has added 23.57 lacs and OI has increased to 76 Lacs, 5500PE seen unwinding of 10 lac , 15.6 lacs contracts also added to 5600PE and having highest OI of 94 lacs.

So once again strange OI data table, but such a huge addition giving sense that bears are also gearing up for giving tough fight ahead of expiry.

India Vix slipped another day 2% and closed to 14.76 and Nifty PCR is 0.99.

Now Resistance comes to 5743 - 5769 – 5815 and Supports comes to 5672 – 5625 - 5600.

Trend is not clear, so No trade zone, sitting on cash is always good, just watch out for breakout of any support or resistance will only give clear indication. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels, and then Nifty may retest 5800.

Opening seems subdued say with slightly negative.

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Cement Sector
May see some pressure due royalty.

Realty Sector -
Comes under rate sensitive field and will see some pressure. Select stock can perform better with support of Nifty.

Steel Sector -
Steel seems under pressure ahead of China GDP Nos and globally pressure on sector.

Tata Steel – Has broken out its support level and can test 400 mark in coming sessions.

Power Sector
For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector
Most of expert expecting that the RBI may cut the CRR by 25bps but will this hope really help to Oct. series is the million dollar question.

IT Sector
Heavyweight may see some pressure ahead of US Prez election as fight seems very close.

Auto Sector
TM – As China GDP is as per expectation, I see TM is going to cross 280 Mark if market remain stable or in uptrend, it wont fall much even if market also remain under pressure.

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

Deccan Chronicle Holdings & DCB - suggested to exit, keep eye on both stock, once Nifty will settle from its under pressure behaviour both will shine. If you are still holding then no prob, keep it for Mid term bet.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Suggested to buy around 96-97 but soon after suggestion it went up to 102, will try to catch it today as updated TG is 115 (short to mid term bet)

Today’s MG Mantra
Its No Trading Zone, watch for breakout of either side else play only Intraday and close positions before market close.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.


  1. Zee News Q2FY13 Consolidated QoQ
    Net profit at Rs.4.2 cr vs Rs.1.7 cr
    Net sales at Rs.69.6 cr vs Rs.68.4 cr

  2. Hello sir ,
    IRB -- clarifies on news and rejects conspiracy.
    JSW -- rejects criminal allegations against it.
    AXIS bank -- got nod from gujrat high court in arrangement of enam deal.
    SATYAM comp -- ED attaches 822 Cr . deposits of satyam comp.

    Will exit sbi on opening as license of KFA may get canceled today.

    Coal min press conf at 12 so some announcement expected.

    Thank you.

  3. Sir ,
    shorted JSPL @413.50 , it looks weak and till expiry it can come to 400.

    Result ---
    option data shows ITC will go down , only its extraordinary result will hold it .
    Lets see...


  4. As told y'day if some of you have missed Omkar Chemicals, grab it today around 105-106 (max 250) for TG 115 hopefully TG achieve by Nov. 1st week.

  5. Hello sir ,
    EU to open in red .
    Better to make short position .
    Sir , exited SBI and FT ,
    AXIS may even come to 1180 ,
    Thinking to buy PE 1180 , CMP 13 .
    Thank you.

    1. No harm seen but as you said it recover too fast, and we all have seen it in past few days. I am too holding that short.

    2. Also don, chart suggesting it in overbought level, but once in past it had opposite behaviour to charts

    3. Good Don, I am glad if our this movement & forum has got one wonderful member in just one month of starting of this blog... I look forward to few more people like Don, then definitely we will say - its a zone for profitable trade experience.

      Again - Congrats Don!

  6. Good call don and mg sir. I've shorted axis bank at 1189

    1. Hey Uday, you have shorted at low level, be carefull and dont hesitate even to book loss if mkt show strength in second half. Or ask.

    2. Oops sorry i did not know the right term as it was the first time i tried shorting. I actually meant that i shorted at 1201 and covered at 1189. Thanks again :-)

  7. Thanks for comments .
    It is just history , which happened a week ago , First FIIs lifted index and then sold in stock futures .
    Well we must be cautious as there will be volatility.
    Once again thank you.

    1. It has already made low of 1186, seems difficult now to go down more. Your view Don?

    2. Hello sir ,
      EU is waiting for result of meeting .
      Well when I opened google , there was news that there is riots in greece at the venue of meet.
      Sir , our mkt wont take much cues from EU .
      Well DAX is a high beta index in eu an it down more , this indicates all eu may go down more.

      Bank nifty is down 100 pts , so there is oneside selling . But keep eye on bank nifty if diff comes below 100 , it may even recover little.

      Thank you.

  8. EU Marginally lower - keep eye on move, if show strength, our mkt may too remain range bound.

  9. Don be carefull with short, or cover it. High chances for bounce back.

  10. Hi Don,

    I shorted ITC at 291.3.
    Do you think I should cover it or can I hold it?

    1. Hi , grid
      Well I am not an expert ,
      but as I mentioned earlier optons show weakness , but the stock is still up as result is better than expectation.
      See , ITC is a blue chip and it goes in a single trend , I would recommend to exit at your min loss as it may go up due to rerating .
      Again this is my own view , I hope you have put strict stoploss.
      I would recommend every one not to make position in scrip before results as this is very risky.

      MG if you are traking ITC , please guide...

  11. Fine, Its ok I will manage it

  12. Dear Mudraji,

    Exiting the short.

    Giri Duddu

  13. Hello sir ,
    Mkt is weak , and next imp triger is 2:30 factor .
    It may recover or go down more . Around 2:30 voilent moves expected as intraday traders will exit and new trades for moday will be placed , either BTST or STBT .
    I am shot on JSPL and covered it .

    Now sit on cash and let mkt decide its direction and then will make fresh entry in flow.

    Sir , if you have shorted axis F2 and still holding then you can wait till expiry (1180) as volatility will increase . But remember axis recovers too fast.

    Thank you.

  14. Zee Entertainment Q2 Cons Net Profit at Rs 187.69 cr Vs Rs 158 cr (YoY)

  15. Good After noon MG....
    The quote at the start of Morning bell is amazing. :-)

  16. Hello sir ,
    Bought nifty futures 1 lot @5670