Morning Bells (10 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Help is very expensive GIFT, so don’t expect it from everyone… and very few people are RICH by heart.

So finally liquidity driven market started showing some sign of fatigue and fundamental concerns is trying to be on front seat as its still remain primary concern at the moment.

The investors in the Indian market preferred to remain cautious ahead of the earnings season. After a positive start, the Sensex and Nifty ended on a negative note with some volatility seen in early afternoon trade.

Nifty is finding hard to sustain its psychological level of 6000 mark confidently after the recent rally. Despite flat cues from global markets, Indices weakened towards the close of session led by selling in metal and FMCG stocks.

RIL, Tata Power, ICICI Bank, Coal India, Tata Motors, SBI, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, M&M, SBI, Hindalco Inds are among gainers while Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tata Steel, HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, ITC,  Mahindra & Mahindra   are among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - PSU, Realty, Metal, Oil and Gas, Consumer Durables, Bankex, Capital Goods, Metal, are the gainers while FMCG, Power, IT, Teck and Consumer Durables indices are the losers.

Railway stocks rallied after the Railways Minister announced hike in fares from January 21. However, he added, there will be no increase in fares in February rail budget. The fare hike will yield Rs 66 billion in revenues.

On Thursday and Friday, Beijing will release data on key indicators including inflation and trade.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now next trigger for market is RBI policy which is scheduled at Jan 29 and another trigger is hike in diesel price if it announces sooner.

The INDIA VIX on NSE up 0.38% and ended at 13.32 against 13.27 and FNO PCR is 0.85.

Indian Rupee weakens gained today and closed at 54.74 than its previous close 54.99/55.00.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1463.17 up 6.02 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is finding hard to move above its physiological level of 6000 mark, so till its not sustain that level confidently it remain subdued as I see further buying momentum come only above 6,025 level and may trade within 6,080-5,950 range.

Its also not ruled out that Nifty is consolidating nicely, no surprise if we see 6100-6150 levels in this series in coming days. But don’t expect any big move from here, trend is up but not on fundamental basis.

Remember as told one need to lighten portfolio before RBI policy and to collect some cash before budget in March.

Now next trigger is IIP Nos and Infy Q3 earnings which is slated to announce on Friday 11 Jan 13.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Resistance – 6008 – 6045 – 6069 and Support – 5946 – 5921 -5884

Opening seems flat and may be first half remain subdued.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

IT Sector –

Slower growth in discretionary spending and delays in decision making of clients may continue to hurt Indian IT companies' revenue growth in the December quarter. Traditionally, the October-December quarter is a weak quarter for IT companies as the number of working days is lesser compared to other quarters due to the holiday season at the client locations.

Infy –

Infosys is planning to focus more on deals from corporations rather than government, which contributes about 90% to the company's revenue, according to reports.

Tata Motors –

CLSA upgraded the stock to "buy" from "outperform"  and Credit Suisse upped its rating to "outperform," citing strong growth prospects for Jaguar Land Rover, driven by the new Range Rover and Chinese demand. TM rose 4% on the news and can move further with support of market.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Sorry – right now we don’t have any open position.

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 108 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 119 (Gain +5%)

(Booked 50% @127 and y’day hit SL of 121. Total gain on 200qty x 19 (avg. price 124) = 3,800 – Call clsoed

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 48.45 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Keep eye on Wipro, Axis & Uco Bank. Will update call during market hours.

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

MG Blog –

Cash = 8050.00 (Old) + 1600 = 9,650.00

(booked profit in balance position in LV Bank @121, 100x16 = 1,600)

FNO =  +13,500 – 2000 (loss in ICICI 1200CE) = 11,500

Billionaire Club = +30,500 (Old) – 750 = 29,750.00

(Booked Loss in ICICI 1200CE = 27-24 = 3x250=750)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Start lightening up your portfolio.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.