Morning Bells (9 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Help is very expensive GIFT, so don’t expect it from everyone… and very few people are RICH by heart.

Sorry friends, there was some net problem from 9.30PM and that didn’t get time to get info. Well here’s commentary in short.

Though global cues were nothing to cheer about, the Indian indices staged a smart recovery towards the close to end in positive terrain. Market participants indicate a bout of short-covering may have taken place in select counters.

Asian and European markets were lower ahead of upcoming earnings season and economic indicators.  Lower than projected German export data for the month of November was majorly responsible for a dip in seen y’day on European indices alongwith a dip in Euro. Other data from Europe such Euro zone sentiment, employment and retail sales as will project a broader picture of the macroeconomic situation in the European market.

RIL, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco Inds, L&T, HUL are among losers in Senses & Nifty.

Sectoral – FMCG, Auto, Power, Realty and Healthcare indices are the gainers while Oil and Gas , HC, PSU, Metal, IT, Teck , Oil and Gas, Consumer Durables, Bankex, Capital Goods, Metal, are the losers.

Prime Minister  Dr. Manmohan Singh has reportedly said that the government must raise the price of diesel, kerosene, and cooking gas.

Forex - A good way to judge market momentum is to look at the currency market. The dollar index currently is at the crucial 80-mark. The Asian sales desks have already started advising caution, citing the dollar index rise as an indication and some experts expecting a 10% correction.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now next trigger for market is RBI policy which is scheduled at Jan 29 and another trigger is hike in diesel price if it announces sooner.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 4.67% and ended at 13.27 against 13.92 and FNO PCR is 0.98.

Indian rupee weakens further by 7 Paisa and closed at 55.30, weaker than its previous close 55.23.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1457.15 down 4.74 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is likely to witness further buying above 6,025 level and may trade within 6,080-5,950 range. Since Nifty is consolidating nicely, no surprise if we see 6100-6150 levels in coming days. But don’t expect any big move from here, trend is up but not on fundamental basis. Remember as told one need to lighten portfolio before RBI policy and to collect some cash before budget in March.

Now next trigger is IIP Nos and Infy Q3 earnings which is slated to announce on Friday 11 Jan 13.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Opening seems flat to under pressure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Power Grid Corporation –

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd has announced that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 03, 2013, have accorded Investment approval for 'Common Transmission Scheme associated with ISGS Projects in Nagapattinam / Cuddalore area of Tamil Nadu - Part-A1 (a)' at an estimated cost of Rs. 1.82bn, with commissioning schedule of 21 months from the date of investment approval.

IT Sector –

Slower growth in discretionary spending and delays in decision making of clients may continue to hurt Indian IT companies' revenue growth in the December quarter. Traditionally, the October-December quarter is a weak quarter for IT companies as the number of working days is lesser compared to other quarters due to the holiday season at the client locations.

Infy –

Infosys is planning to focus more on deals from corporations rather than government, which contributes about 90% to the company's revenue, according to reports.

Tata Motors –

Tata Motors has introduced an unbeatable four-year warranty on its entire range of heavy trucks with 25 tonnes and higher Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). With this, Tata Motors has become the first company in India to offer a standard 4-year warranty on heavy trucks, a clear reflection of the reliability and durability of Tata Motors trucks.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

ICICI Jan 1200CE – @27 TG 40+ SL 21 (2 lot) – SL hit @19, booked loss 2K (People who are still holding can hold with SL 19)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 108 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 113 (Gain +5%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 48.45 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Keep eye on Wipro, Axis & Uco Bank. Will update call during market hours.

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

MG Blog –

Cash = 5250.00 (Old) + 2800 = 8050.00

FNO =  +13,500 – 2000 (loss in ICICI 1200CE) = 11,500

Billionaire Club = +17,000 (Old) + 13.5K (On 4 Dec 13) = 30,500/-

Today’s MG Mantra –

Start lightening up your portfolio.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.