Morning Bells 5 Feb 13

Good Morning Friends.

Confident walking is more successful than confused Running. Follow no one but learn from everyone.

As informed well in advance i.e. approx 3 week ago, now since everything seems going smooth with reforms and RBI has also supported the reforms and now Rupee is appreciating which is not good for health for FII and that’s market is witnessing profit booking as well as seems fatigue.

The selling in the broader markets was even more as indices failed to maintain their opening gains. The benchmark indices which opened with a positive gap, gave away all its gains amid all round selling seen in scrips across the board on Monday. The Nifty declined ~60 points from day’s high.

Selling pressure was seen despite strong cues from the Asian markets. Appreciation in the rupee against the US$ failed to keep the indices in check. The Indian rupee breached the 53 level by gaining 26 paise to trade at fresh three-and-a-half-month high of 52.93.

Gainers – TCS, HDFC, L&T, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and HUL were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Infosys, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Dr Reddys Lab, Cipla, BHEL, Maruti Suzuki, ONGC and NTPC were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – Barring the BSE Auto index all the other sectoral indices ended in the red. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index lost nearly 0.75% each. The BSE PSU, Healthcare, Power and Oil & Gas index were among the top losers. The BSE Auto index was the only gainer, up 0.5%.        

52 Week High - during the week stocks which hit 52 weeks high were Essar Oil, ITC, Asian Paints, Bombay Cycle and Nahar Spinning.

On Domestic Front -

Diversified equity mutual funds underperformed the broader market by a wide margin in January, as exposure to financials and to mid- and small-cap stocks hit returns, according to data compiled by fund tracker Lipper.

Funds overall returned 0.45 percent during a month in which the BSE Sensex rose 2.4 percent, up for a third consecutive month on the back of continued strong foreign net inflows and government reform measures such as allowing diesel prices to rise.

On Global front –

Reports said that Wal-Mart has been lobbying with the US lawmakers on dozens of issues every quarter, whose disclosures it is mandatorily required to make under the American regulations.

Ethiad Airways net profit jumps 200% - Revenue increased 17% to US$4.8 billion (US$4.1 billion), on passenger numbers up 23% to 10.3 million (8.4 million). These numbers were boosted significantly by Etihad Airways' equity partnerships and codeshares, which delivered more than US$600mn in total revenue.

Must Read – What salaried can expect from Union Budget, tentatively proposed on Feb 28, 2013.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/tax/union-budget-2013-kpmg-indias-wishlist-for-salaried-class_813890.html

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

In the very short-term we might see some pressure. 6040-6050 on the upside of the Nifty is certainly resistance. We will test 5940 sometime down this week.

Now focus is shifted to budget which is probably schedule from 21-28 Feb 13. More clear view in coming days.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4.2% and ended at 14.34 against previous close of 13.76.

FNO PCR is 0.82 against previous close 0.98.

Indian Rupee against USD was up by 10 paisa and was trading at 53.29 against its previous close 53.19.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1499.88 down 13.29 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

At Close, the Instanex FII Index was down 0.06% at 421.85 and the Instanex DII 15 portfolio was down 0.53%.Nifty was down 0.19% and Sensex was down 0.15%. The other Instanex Owner Indexes were also down- the Instanex Promoter 15 portfolio was down 1.02%, the Instanex Top 15 portfolio was down 0.77% and the Instanex Retail 15 portfolio was down 0.55%.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now immediate Nifty range is 5900 – 6200 but on downside could be more on profit booking at higher levels as its till date is liquidity driven rally.

Nifty is in range of 5900-5960-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 6080 – 6059 – 6023 and Support – 5966 – 5945 - 5908

Opening - seems RED and market may face some pressure to continue, atleast in first half.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

New Banking Licence Guidelines -

Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has reportedly said that he does not see any reason why companies that fulfil all RBI criteria should be denied banking licenses.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to issue final rules on new banking licenses to private entities within a few weeks.

"The RBI has drawn up draft guidelines, guidelines say that more licenses will be given to the private sector, " Chidambaram reportedly said

Reports said that the government believes that the opening the sector will pave the way for the creation of some world-size banks.

Tata Motors –

Bounced back and gained 3.5%. The stock was hit badly on Friday because of a technology trading glitch form a brokerage firm. Stock ended at Rs.291 up by 6. It touched a high of Rs. 296 and a low of Rs. 289 in the day’s trade at BSE. Total traded quantity on the counter stood at 11.5lakh. 

Also, Tata Motors is mulling a new vendor-support scheme which would compensate suppliers whenever there is a drastic drop in production.

The idea had been doing the rounds among the Tata Motors management against the backdrop of the overall production at the company's Sanand facility being far below the capacity which adversely affected suppliers considerably.

Bajaj Auto –

Reports 3% sales growth in Jan 2013. January total sales stood at 3,47,624 units as compared to 3,37,875 units in January 2012, a growth of 3%. The total exports stood at 128,482 units as compared to 116,996 units in January 2012, a growth of 10%.

ON Mobile -

De-growth was again impacted by telecom biz in India. Onmobile Global revenue was under pressure, it was down 2 per cent. However, its margins were higher due to forex. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mouli Raman, Co-Founder & MD, Onmobile Global said that he expects de-growth in India business for next one quarter. "After that it will be flat for a quarter" he added.

MG’s Note – We suggest now to exit from On Mobile call time being.

Bank of Baroda –

Tanked almost 7.7% after posting below expectations Q3 results. Higher provisioning for bad assets hurt Bank of Baroda's third quarter profits. Bank of Baroda’s net profit declined 21.5% y-o-y to Rs10.12bn against 12.90bn last year.
The stock ended at trading at Rs801 down Rs.64 from the previous close. It touched a high of Rs.875.50 and a low of Rs. 798.30 in the intra-day trade on BSE. Total traded quantity on the counter stood at over 6.07lakh shares. 

Ultratech Cement –

rebounded 1.7% after the stock took a hit on Friday after because of a technology trading glitch form a brokerage firm.  Stock is trading down at Rs.1893 up by 32. It touched a high of Rs. 1910 and a low of Rs.1880 in the day’s trade at BSE. Total traded quantity on the counter stood at 0.12lakh. 

Spice Jet -

ow-cost carrier SpiceJet today said more than 97.46 lakh shares pledged by one of its promoter, Kal Airways, have been released.
    
Kal Airways held 15.65 crore or 32.32 per cent stake in SpiceJet as of December quarter.
    
In a disclosure to the BSE, Spicejet said that over 97.46 lakh equity shares of the company, pledged by Kal Airways have been released.

NTPC –

The empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) chaired by Finance Minister P Chidambaram is expected to meet on Tuesday to decide on time and price of 9.5% stake sale in power firm NTPC Ltd which could fetch Rs.12,000 crore to the exchequer.

“The EGoM on stake sale in NTPC will be held tomorrow," an official said. The government, he said, was proposing to offload its stake in NTPC later in the week through the offer for sale (OFS) route.

 

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

=============== HOT SHOT ===============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Be on board for next clue.

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Jan Series Total Profit = +25,650 (Cash +9,650.00 & FNO = +16,250)

Billionaire Club Jan Series TOTAL Profit = +51,000

Today’s MG Mantra –

New series, new fun, new ideas, stay on blog for more clues.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.