Morning Bells (8 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Circumstances can change at any time. Don’t devalue or hurt anyone in this life. You may be powerful today but time is more powerful than you.

The first trigger triggered y’day and that was GDP. For the sixth day in a row, the Indian equity market continued to languish and the culprit this time was GDP estimates which came in lower than expected. The growth in GDP during 2012-13 is estimated at 5% as compared to the growth rate of 6.2% in 2011-12. The sectors which registered growth rate of over 5% were ‘Construction’, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community, social and personal services'. 

According to The Central Statistics Office (CSO) which released the advance estimates of India’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the current fiscal year ending March 2013. India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 5% per annum in the current financial year 2012-13. CSO is the principal data collecting, processing and disseminating agency.

The GDP growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be lower on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector. The latest estimate is the worst of all growth projections issued by the government and the Reserve Bank of India. In January, the RBI had estimated the GDP growth to 5.5% for the current fiscal ending in March 2013.

In an unfortunate accident; that occurred while the Mumbai International Airport Ltd. (MIAL) was carrying on the construction of Sahar Elevated Road near Arrival area of the International Airport yesterday night at around 11.45 p.m.; 3 deaths and 6 casualties have been reported.

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) makes it clear that the MIAL is constructing the 1.5-km stretch from Hyatt Regency to International Airport Terminal-2, which is in the MIAL jurisdiction, where the accident has taken place. The MMRDA has no role to play as far as the construction of this stretch is concerned. The MMRDA is constructing the 2-km stretch of the elevated road from Hanuman Road Junction on the WEH up to Hyatt Regency on Sahar Road.

Gainers – Power Grid, IDFC, M&M, ACC, TCS, Tata Motors, Grasim, Coal India and HDFC were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Reliance Infra, Sesa Goa, Bank of Baroda, Ambuja Cem, NTPC, GAIL, Cipla and Ultratech Cement were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – Today’s decline was led by the Consumer Durables, Realty, Power, Metals and the Capital Goods stocks. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks were under pressure, however bucking the negative trend were the IT, Auto and FMCG stocks.

On Domestic Front –

Market regulator SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) said that a credit rating agency cannot offer any fee-based services other than credit ratings and research to its rated clients, while its regulations would apply to ratings of all kinds of securities, bank facilities and services. The regulator on Wednesday has expressed its views in this regard in an ‘interpretative letter’ sought by SME Rating Agency of India Ltd (SMERA) under the regulator’s informal guidance scheme.

SMERA also provides other services such as risk rating of industrial clusters, validation of rating models, code of conduct assessment for various institutions, due diligence exercise, etc. These services are consultancy/ advisory and/or not credit rating of any security issued by any entity, the guidance note added.

On Global front –

Oil was up in Asia as New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, gained 11 cents to US$96.73 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for March delivery increased nine cents to $116.82. 

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

In last 2-3 months, Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) buying was matched by domestic institutional selling, so now one can only assume that maybe this kind of sluggishness may last for a week or so, but if Nifty stays below 5950, traders can look for fresh short position.

Now next trigger for market is Budget which is tentatively scheduled from 21^st Feb 13 and main budget on 27-28 Feb. so here one more possibility that till budget  market may remain range bound.

As told last few days in the very short-term we might see some pressure. 6040-6050 on the upside of the Nifty is certainly resistance and will find support around 5935. So today one need to watch whether Nifty recover this level after opening dip or not.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4.42% and ended at 14.89 against previous close of 14.26.

FNO PCR is 0.86 against previous close 0.78.

Indian Rupee weakened against USD by 7 paisa and was trading at 53.22/23 against its previous close 53.15/16.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1501.90 down 10.22 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Keep eye on 5935, it should recover & hold today else market can head towards lower levels i.e. below 5900 mark.

Nifty is in range of 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 6019 – 5999 – 5969 and Support – 5918 – 5897 - 5867

Opening - seems gap down on disappointing GDP and worry about EU meet.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RCom –

Reliance Communications has received stay order against one-time licence fee till February 28 with the Calcutta High Court directing the telecom department  not to take any coercive measures against the company to recover Rs 1.73bn against existing GSM airwaves held by it, according to reports.

Reports stated that Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular, Vodafone India and Aircel have managed to stall imposition of the one-time airwaves charge that was to come into effect from January 1, 2013.

NTPC –

A USD 2.1 billion share auction in state-run power utility NTPC was fully covered on Thursday, provisional data from the Bombay Stock Exchange showed.

By 3:05 p.m., the single-day auction had received bids for 840.65 million shares at an indicative weighted average price of Rs 145.46 per share. Final bid numbers will be available later on Thursday.

The government was selling 783.26 million shares, or 9.5 percent of the company's stock, at a minimum price of Rs 145 per share for bids.

Under new rules announced last month, the SEBI allowed bidders at share auctions to modify or cancel their orders if they deposit 100 percent of their order value upfront. Investors who bid without making a deposit are only allowed to make upward changes to their bids.

Tata Global -

Starbucks today opened its first store in Delhi. CNBC-TV18's Malvika Jain gets John Culver, president, Starbucks Coffee and Avani Sugalani Davda, CEO, Tata Starbucks Ltd. to throw some light on the company's plan of opening up stores in China and Asia Pacific.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Axis Bank 1500CE – @19 TG 27+ SL 10 (Active from 7 Feb 13)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Jan Series Total Profit = +25,900 (Cash +9,650.00 & FNO = +16,250)

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +7500

(Axis bank 1450PE = 3000 + Rel Infra fut 4500 = 7500)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t go against market sentiment. Market creating base around 5950.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.