Morning Bells (21 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life will become much easier when we finally understand  which hand is to shake and which is to hold.

Hi, I was about to reply to your query about market, but thought that this could be part of MB. Also I am giving more and more time to catch all possible new in MB but sometimes it gives me feeling that most of you are not reading it, so just thought that rather than to catch news, we will just discuss the market for today and lets see whether people like it or not.

Well, regarding market outlook - we need to understand the cause, global market doesn't affect our market that much but this time its dual attack, one DMK pull out support and secondly worry about Cyprus.

If you analyze - both are false i.e. neither Cyprus is going to out of EU nor UPA going to fall, then what's affecting most?

Recall Morning bells of Dec. second half and Jan. first half, I had warned you all repeatedly –

(A) Exit your longs 50% either end of the year or in the first week of Jan.

(B) Exit all your longs before RBI announcement in Jan. itself.

(C) Since Oct. 12 to till Jan 13 first half – EU worry is not over.

What all meant? Reason was simple, we all are in market to earn something, then what about big investors? Specially FIIs? They invested in our market throughout the year, market went to 6100 from 4700 (Nifty), nobody even can believing that time that Nifty will climb 1400 odd points in just 8 months. So what’s wrong when big investors came for profit booking.

The first clear signal was when small cap to mid cap index was butchered, DII was on selling counter since Dec. and since DII was on sell counter, planning for FII failed, they hold market for another 2 months and when they get a sign, they did for what they were waiting.

Now comes to sentiment and technical -

Companies which are connected to DMK either way are the targets, like today Mannapuram and HDIL. Secondly most important facts is that now govt. is weak, they need to think twice before making any bold decision, and this is the most important point which is hurting market.

Overall, as informed many times, trend is down, its sell on rise or rally. For March, it should hold 5710 / 5650 / 5550 (read 2 weeks back MBs, you will get all levels with warning bell) as book closer is near so just hope market wont fall much from here (don’t take it as it will rise, small bounces are always part of movement)

So, that’s all from my end.

Hope you all got my point.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.05% and ended at 16.66 against previous close of 16.71.

FNO PCR is 0.95 against previous close 1.18.

Indian Rupee – Rupee remained and was trading at 54.36 against its previous close of 54.37.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1556.97 up 8.63 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5970 – 5917 – 5831 and Support – 5692 – 5636 – 5553 (Pivot 5777)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 56006

Opening – Seems flat and market go range bound.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Banking Sector –

Banking sector or can say rate sensitive stocks can try to show some strength. Not all, keep eye on south best (DML influence) stock and avoid them for time being.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +12,200

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +32,650

(-2100, Loss in Hindalco CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market may seems range bound, go for cautious approach.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.