Morning Bells (22 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life is not about the people who act true in front of you, its about the people who remain true behind you.

Oh, what a volatile day it was, went down 35 points, moved up 45 points and again went down 45 points. Many of you would have earned good chunk of money as many stocks also followed the wave and made a good up and down. I was in SunTV which made low of 392 from 418 then moved up 408 and then back to 382. Great!.

The whole day market was flowing with Govt.’s stand on Sri Lanka issue, finally Govt. went against Sri Lankan Govt. which wiped out DMK issue for withdrawing support from UPA, now again DMK stuck like Mamta Bannerjee who y’day made affirmative statement to support Govt.

So today market may see a good recovery and sharp bounce if DMK clears its stand on UPA support i.e. whether they will support Govt. from outside now or not. If yes then a good bounce can take place.

Again don’t get confuse with bounce, since market cracked, Cyprus fate is there on Monday, Italy also facing Govt. forming issue, so just use this bounce to exit your stuck positions or to take small risk PE options.

I was in the favour that this weakness actually forming a strong rally base which I am expecting in last 3 days of end of financial year. So lets see what is store in Nifty.

Well, coming to ground reality - Despite a positive start, the Indian equity market succumbed to intense selling towards the end recording its fifth straight dip. Earlier in the day, the Nifty had risen to the 5750 levels but came tumbling down as selling pressure resumed in Realty, Power, Capital Goods, Auto and Oil & gas stocks.

Gainers - Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Jindal Steel, Coal India, Gail India were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers - RIL, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Cipla, SBI, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, ONGC, BHEL were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –

5 Gas Blocks approved -

The Cabinet Committee on Investment in its meeting held on March 20, 2013, gave clearances for five Oil and Gas Exploration Blocks

Global Front –

Cyrpus Cause -

Until now people deposited money in banks for umpteen reasons like safety, savings, investments etc but Cyprus has changed all that!! The tiny island nation after being faced with a potential bust of its banks has turned to the savior European Union for bailout.

To be eligible for the 10 billion euro bailout proposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, savers over 20,000 euro in the island nation would have to incur a levy of 6.5-10% on their deposits. But caving into protests from angry citizens, Cyprus’ Parliament rejected this proposal and has now turned to Russia for help.

Cyprus is a haven for billions of euro squirreled abroad by Russian businesses and individuals. Nearly one-third of total deposits are believed to be held by Russian customers.  This may have been a factor for the reluctance of Germany and other northern eurozone states in bailing it out without the contribution of bank depositors. EU and Germany argued that their taxpayers shouldn’t bailout a country when Russians would benefit from that.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Recall your memories  about 2 week back MBs, we had discussion about downside TG and support which was 5550 & 5650. Nifty exactly closed just above first strong support, either it will take a short term U turn from here or if broken then may test 5550 levels. Break of 5550 would be dangerous and would give a deeper knife pain. So if you are with low investment amount, be safe and play only intraday, even short time in intraday and try to book profit as quick as possible.

Y’day I went long in HDFC @798, exited 808, stock started moving up, was feeling sad, but after half an hour I was feeling great! Same you can say for our ICICI call when we booked profit @27 instead of 29, but see its closing price.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 16.51 against previous close of 16.66.

FNO PCR is 0.92 against previous close 0.95.

Indian Rupee – Rupee remained flat, gained 8 paisa and was trading at 54.28 against its previous close of 54.36.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1549.47 down 9.24 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5838 – 5797 – 5728 and Support – 5618 – 5578 – 5508 (Pivot 5688)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 5606

Opening – Seems flat and under pressure till parliament session development.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

L&T –

L&T Construction has won new orders valued over Rs20.80bn across various business segments in February and March 2013.

The Building & Factories Business has bagged new orders worth Rs1385 crores for the construction of residential towers in cities in North India

SAIL –

The offer for sale (OFS) price of steel major SAIL (Steel Authority of India), which will hit the market tomorrow, is reportedly fixed at Rs. 63, according to reports.

TM –

Tata Motors plunged 4% to close at ~Rs273 after reports stated that tough emission norms in China could potentially hit its luxury car maker unit Jaguar Land Rover.

BhartiAirtel -

Bharti Airtel surged by 6% to close at Rs297. The telecom giant launched its fourth generation (4G) mobile broadband services in Panchkula, Mohali and Chandigarh.

The stock fell over 5% in the previous session after a court summon was sent to promoter Sunil Mittal for his alleged role in the 2G scam case.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +12,200 + 1250 (ICICI CE profit) = +13,450

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +32,650 + 9,000 = 41,650

(Profit in shorting SunTV)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Wait for first half an hour, lets market to decide its trend, and exit around EU if market shows strength.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.