Morning Bells (16 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

SPEED is calculated as “Miles Per Hour” but LIFE is calculated as “Smiles Per Hour”, so increase your smiles and get extra mileage in life.

As expected a bounce took place but once again Nifty witnessed selling pressure when it made attempt to 5600, I am telling it since past week, but now seems FII also got this point and that’s seems they have initiated it a bit earlier.

The Indian equity market ended with smart gains on Monday. Though equity markets managed to garner gains, attention was more on the commodities side. Gold further lost its sheen; Gold May futures fell by 6% to hit an intra-day low of Rs26,250 per 10 gms. Gold prices fell as much as Rs1,675 per ten gram for the first time since September 2011. The sell-off was not restricted to gold alone. Silver fell over 10% in a single trading session.

Coming back to the equity market, today’s upswing was led by the Oil & Gas stocks, Reliance Industries led from the front as the stock witnessed strong buying momentum ahead of the quarterly results scheduled to be announced on 16 April, 2013.

Market participants cheered better than expected monthly inflation numbers. The annual rate of inflation, stood at 5.96% (provisional) for the month of March, 2013 (over March, 2012) as compared to 6.84% (provisional) for the previous month and 7.69% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Gainers –

ONGC, SBI, HDFC, Bharti Airtel, RIL Gail India, Jindal Steel, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Bank were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

TCS, Wipro, BHEL, Tata Power, Tata Motors, Coal India, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral –

Oil & Gas, PSU, Capital Goods, Bankex, FMCG, Realty and Healthcare indices were the top gainers. On the other hand, BSE IT, Consumer Durables, TECK, Auto, Metal and Power indices were the top losers.

Stocks which hit a 52-week low during the week were Bihar Sponge, SAIL, Hero MotoCorp, Lords Chloro and Tata Steel.

Domestic Front –

IIP –

The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 for the month of February 2013 have been released by the Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The General Index for the month of February 2013 stands at 176.2, which is 0.6% higher as compared to the level in the month of February 2012. The cumulative growth for the period April-February 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 0.9%.

CPI –

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation releases Consumer Price Indices (CPI) on base 2010=100 for all-India and States/UTs separately for rural, urban and combined every month with effect from January, 2011. 

Provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for March 2013 on point to point basis (March 2013 over March 2012) is 10.39% (slightly higher than rural and urban rates of March 2013 due to rounding) as compared to 10.91% (final) for the previous month of February 2013.

Global Front –

WPI –

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 5.96% (provisional) for the month of March, 2013 (over March, 2012) as compared to 6.84% (provisional) for the previous month and 7.69% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 5.96% compared to a build up rate of 7.69% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Fuel Rate Cut –

Petrol price is cut by Re 1 per litre with effect from midnight today, following a decline in international crude oil prices, however there is no change in diesel price,  Indian Oil Corporation  said while announcing the price revision today.

After including VAT, the reduction in price of petrol in Delhi comes to Rs 1.20 per litre while in Mumbai it comes to Rs 1.26. The fuel will cost Rs 66.09 and Rs 72.88 in Delhi and Mumbai respectively from midnight tonight.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As told many times, 5600-5630 range seen decline, second time Nifty back from it. So lets see whether Infy push Nifty above it or again turn to 5500-5550.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 1% and ended at 16.61 against previous close of 16.45.

FNO PCR is 1.00 against previous close 0.90.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined further and was trading at 54.63 against its previous close of 54.52.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1566.34 down 22.51 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALNEDER –

16 Apr – RIL

17 Apr – HCL, TCS, Yes Bank

18 Apr – Essar Ports, IndusInd Bank,

19 Apr – Oberoi Realty, Wipro

22 Apr – Cairn India

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically if you see to charts, Nifty has final support 5545-35 on daily charts, next small stop seems around 5335 and then good stop seems around 5215. Weekly chart also confirm same, while monthly chart confirm 5215 only. It also show reverse of HNS making pattern till 5215. Stay away from market and wait for clear indication, which down now, just hope is 5545, if broken then next support seems around 5200-5250.

Now Nifty seems in a tight range, on downside 5450 around level seems where some domestic buying can come (chances are 40:60), same way 5600-5630 is the range where selling pressure is coming, so in near term probably Nifty should remain in this range. Above 5630 there are chances for a small rally which can pull Nifty between 5700 - 5800 levels.

Intraday Resistance – 5699 – 5646 – 5607 and Support – 5514 – 5461 – 5422 (Pivot 5553)

Opening – Seems small gap down as global market fell down, also US market seen sharp decline. But our market may soon recovery ahead of industry heavyweight RIL result.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Infy –

Once again MG put right on the stock, had suggested a bounce will be there around 2240 level and stock bounce from around the level. It has shown good rebound from here and hope it will continue its journey in coming days.

MG’s View –

So now big question is – will history repeat? For short term, the stock is looking weak on the technical charts as it has broken its long term strong support and 200DMA 2590.

Currently stock is trading at 2295, 2240 is the level from where one can expect a bounce as stock has significant of this level. Lets see.

TCS -

IT major Tata Consultancy Services today said one of its promoter has released 1.7 crore pledged shares of the firm.

In a filing to the BSE, TCS said its promoter Tata Sons Ltd released a total of 1,73,50,000 shares of the company on April 8 and April 12.

RIL –

With RIL ’s results coming up next week, profit expectations are plus or minus Rs 50 crore of their Q3 PAT figure of Rs 5500 crore, expect SP Tulsian. He is not expecting any kind of negatives from the company. Maybe they have posted a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 5500 crore for Q3. I am expecting that to be somewhere between plus or minus Rs 50 crore.

Reliance Industries is expected to declare its Q4 FY13 earnings on Tuesday. Various experts sees revenues of India’s largest private sector oil refiner at Rs 955 bn, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year.

They are also expecting a 30.7% YoY increase in RIL’s profit after tax at Rs 55.4 bn.

On the gross refining margins front, he expects the company to deliver $10 per barrel.

Suzlon Energy –

Shares of Suzlon Energy gained momentum after reports stated that its shareholders have approved the $1.8-bn corporate debt restructuring package.

Titan Industries –

Shares of Titan Industries fell as much as 5% on Monday on fears that slumping global gold prices would hit earnings, according to reports.

IOC –

Indian Oil Corporation has cut petrol prices by Rs 1per litre effective midnight. Despite petrol decontrol, oil marketing companies continued to lose Rs 1,050 crore in FY13, it stated. 

It pegs the loss on retail diesel sales at Rs 6.48 per litre. On april 02 the country’s biggest refinery had cut prices by a rupee.

Tata Motors –

Last Thursday, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) March monthly sales report showed declining market shares for Tata Motors Limited’s (Ba3 stable) passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles.

Tata remains in third position behind Maruti Suzuki India Limited (39.1%) (unrated) and Hyundai Motor Company (14.3%) (Baa1 stable). Since the financial year ended 31 March 2012, Tata’s passenger vehicles market share has decreased to 11.8% from 14.2%. Even Tata’s dominant market position in commercial vehicles saw a decline to 56.1% from 58.5% in 2012. The lower market share is credit negative for Tata.

ONGC –

After Reliance Industries and Cairn India, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is planning to discover additional oil reserves in the Mumbai offshore area, report said.

"The D1 block in the Mumbai offshore could hold a significant amount of additional oil reserves and is situated about 200 km west of Mumbai in a deep continental shelf at a depth of 85 to 90 metres, "ONGC reported.

According to the company, the low gas-to-oil-ratio (GOR) had led to a slow pace of exploration and appraisal of the field.

ONGC is planning to implement integrated development plan for D1 field at a cost of about Rs 21.64bn, says report.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = = +3150 + 2600 = +5750

(Booked profit in ITC 300CE)

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr= +5,300 + 2600 = +7900

(Booked profit in ITC 300CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t follow first our trend, actual trend will be only after that.

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Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.